New BLT Rumors--PART II

[tjkraz]

Re: $140/point.
What if DVC offered BLT with a guaranteed MF cost of at least $1/point/year cheaper than AKV.
They could use "Disney Math' and say you will save at least $50/point lifetime, thus BLT is worth the premium over AKV selling in the $90's (with incentives)

It would depend on how the offer were structured.

One way to do this is with higher point charts. Organically dues would be lower with more points in circulation. Of course, then you're asking owners to not only pay more up front but also require more points per night to stay.

Another option would be to have Disney subsidize the dues reduction. Not sure about the legalities of that--probably is permissable as long as it is disclosed. But from Disney's standpoint, it's largely a shell game. They may get more on the front end but then have to pay more on the back.

And in this second scenario, there would always exist some fear that Disney could maintain this $1 gap by reducing expenses rather than paying out of pocket. It shouldn't be terribly comforting to know that Disney could slash the budgets for housekeeping, transportation, capital improvements, etc. to maintain this $1 discount.

 

[DoOverDreams]

chiming in here....

I really had no desire to purchase additional points at the hopefully soon to be BLT, until we saw Wishes from the California Grill. Wow, can you imagine being able to see that every night of your stay? Awesome!

I do think we'll wait to see what the rooms are like before we decide. I've never really liked the contemp myself. I like things a little more "disneyfied".

 

[hakepb]

It would depend on how the offer were structured.

One way to do this is with higher point charts. Organically dues would be lower with more points in circulation. Of course, then you're asking owners to not only pay more up front but also require more points per night to stay.

Another option would be to have Disney subsidize the dues reduction. Not sure about the legalities of that--probably is permissable as long as it is disclosed. But from Disney's standpoint, it's largely a shell game. They may get more on the front end but then have to pay more on the back.

And in this second scenario, there would always exist some fear that Disney could maintain this $1 gap by reducing expenses rather than paying out of pocket. It shouldn't be terribly comforting to know that Disney could slash the budgets for housekeeping, transportation, capital improvements, etc. to maintain this $1 discount.

MF's vary from resort to resort. It is possible to build a resort that has lower MF's, although not all ways are desireable for those expecting "deluxe"
The AKV vs BLT gap would be a "false" reduction, more of semantics than any real reduction.
BLT does not have to maintain any exotic wild animals, and has less landscaping and roofs to maintain.
A real deal would be less than SSR MF's

 

[Luv4Disney]

I told DH the rumored point price and he almost keeled over. Looks like we're probably going to add on to AKL and forget about BLT.

 

[bookwormde]

The projected MF for BLT was something in the low $3 range so if they can hold that it would somewhat justify a higher sales price.

bookwormde

 

[Grandbuddy]

Maintenance costs for the high-rise construction and concrete facade, plus less grounds to maintain, etc., SHOULD be less than many of the other resorts. Less roof, less exterior painting; less groundskeeping....

 

[CarolA]

Maintenance costs for the high-rise construction and concrete facade, plus less grounds to maintain, etc., SHOULD be less than many of the other resorts. Less roof, less exterior painting; less groundskeeping....

But there are costs and they can be higher in some areas.

ANY exterior maintenace on a high risk is costly. Those windows have to be washed by men hanging on platforms... not something I would do for minimum wage (HECK I am scared of heights, not something I would do for less then a million LOL!)

 

[bookwormde]

Building of the size of BLT is are typically designed with dedicated maintenance scaffolding (cable lowering platforms) as part of the package. There are lots of efficiencies in this “compact” style of building both maintenance and operational, so yes I would have expected BLT to have the lowest MFs

bookwormde

 

[CarolA]

Building of the size of BLT is are typically designed with dedicated maintenance scaffolding (cable lowering platforms) as part of the package. There are lots of efficiencies in this “compact” style of building both maintenance and operational, so yes I would have expected BLT to have the lowest MFs

bookwormde

Not after you pay for that additional monorail train to carry these extra guests!

 

[DeeCee735]

I have a co-worker that just bought into DVC last week while she was vacationing in WDW. She said her guide specifically mention the building at CR, and he did say that while Disney wasn't officially announcing anything yet, it will definitely be DVC villas. He also mentioned it will be higher price per point, but did not say what the specific amount will be.

Just wanted to share the latest "leak"

 

[TLSnell1981]

I have never stayed at CR but, DH stayed there as a child.....so he's a little nostalgic about it. We stayed numerous times at the Poly when our children were small and loved the monorail resorts. We would book MK view and it was outstanding. I would be willing to pay a little more per point but, not anywhere near $140.

 

[keishashadow]

Not after you pay for that additional monorail train to carry these extra guests!

seriously, how would they be able to "pin" increased monorail passengers/traffic solely on BLT, could just be a general influx of guests (whether BLT or not) visiting the MK or just taking a spin 'round the circuit

always wondered if there were independent auditors that review the dues line items

if not, is there a methodology for disputing potential egrecious charges (other than selling one's interest of course ).

 

[tjkraz]

seriously, how would they be able to "pin" increased monorail passengers/traffic solely on BLT, could just be a general influx of guests (whether BLT or not) visiting the MK or just taking a spin 'round the circuit

always wondered if there were independent auditors that review the dues line items

if not, is there a methodology for disputing potential egrecious charges (other than selling one's interest of course ).

To the best of my knowledge, once Disney opens a DVC component at an existing resort, ALL of the resort's operating expenses are shared. The sharing is a simple formula based upon the number of "keys" or entry doors in the resort. If Disney's Contemporary Resort ends up with 1000 keys and 400 of them are DVC, DVC members will pay 40% of the budget.

 

[keishashadow]

To the best of my knowledge, once Disney opens a DVC component at an existing resort, ALL of the resort's operating expenses are shared. The sharing is a simple formula based upon the number of "keys" or entry doors in the resort. If Disney's Contemporary Resort ends up with 1000 keys and 400 of them are DVC, DVC members will pay 40% of the budget.

makes sense

i just wonder what % of the monorails operating expenses are assesed to the 3 hotels

 

[jaurban]

Not to throw anything in here, but we were on a Wishes cruise last Saturday night, and drove by BLT, and our captain (and this is purely her statement, not supported by anything) remarked (not knowing we are DVC either) that Disney had originally planned for the new construction to be DVC but are now reconsidering and may just operate it as a new section of the Contemporary Resort. Did not inquire as to her basis for making the statement, just took it in. Could be misinformation designed to quell rumors, or perhaps has a grain of truth to it if the building is intended for mixed use, or if the economy has taken a toll on the DVC interest, but there are still enough cash guests and conventions that will pay the rack rate. Don't know, just relaying the comment.

 

[tjkraz]

makes sense

i just wonder what % of the monorails operating expenses are assesed to the 3 hotels

I'm sure they have formulas for that. The same is true of bus service. Buses are pretty much routed on demand so there's no real tracking of how many gallons of gas are used to service guests at SSR vs. OKW vs. BWV, and so on.

Since the 3 MK resorts are on a loop and the resorts monorail services all three equally, you could probably argue for a flat 1/3 split for each. If not that, it's probably based upon the number of rooms.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

To the best of my knowledge, once Disney opens a DVC component at an existing resort, ALL of the resort's operating expenses are shared. The sharing is a simple formula based upon the number of "keys" or entry doors in the resort. If Disney's Contemporary Resort ends up with 1000 keys and 400 of them are DVC, DVC members will pay 40% of the budget.

Wow, now not doing the math, but the dollar figures would seem to be very high at 40%.. How is it that MF's will apparently be low?

 

[DoOverDreams]

Not to throw anything in here, but we were on a Wishes cruise last Saturday night, and drove by BLT, and our captain (and this is purely her statement, not supported by anything) remarked (not knowing we are DVC either) that Disney had originally planned for the new construction to be DVC but are now reconsidering and may just operate it as a new section of the Contemporary Resort. Did not inquire as to her basis for making the statement, just took it in. Could be misinformation designed to quell rumors, or perhaps has a grain of truth to it if the building is intended for mixed use, or if the economy has taken a toll on the DVC interest, but there are still enough cash guests and conventions that will pay the rack rate. Don't know, just relaying the comment.

We had a boat captain on our wishes cruise last Sunday night say that he was now allowed to confirm that it was definitely DVC. They weren't allowed to say anything earlier but had just been given the go ahead to say it's DVC.

I love these conflicting rumors!

 

[tjkraz]

Wow, now not doing the math, but the dollar figures would seem to be very high at 40%.. How is it that MF's will apparently be low?

It's a function of the operating costs spread over the number of points in circulation. For 2008 the SSR operating budget is over $32 million dollars with another $13 million going into the reserve fund. Property taxes are probably around $12.

High numbers for sure, but those costs are spread over more than 13 million DVC points in circulation at the resort.

As for BLT dues being "low", it's hard to discuss any absolutes since DVC appears to be re-thinking all of the numbers that we have seen. But the first budget that was leaked onto the Internet showed dues in the $3.70 per point neighborhood. That is low when compared to other resorts.

The simplest explanation for that is that the point charts would be higher.

Add up the numbers above for SSR (32 mil + 13 mil + 12 mil = 57mil). Now let's divide by the 13 million points in circulation. That gives us approximate dues of $4.38 per point. That's pretty close to what SSR actually is this year.

Now let's pretend that the point charts for SSR are 15% HIGHER. Instead of selling 13 million points, DVC sold 14.95 million points. The total costs to run the resort will still be $57 million, but we're dividing by 14.95 million points. Suddenly the dues have "dropped" to only $3.81 per point.

That may sound more appealing but in reality owners wouldn't be saving anything. Their point charts would be 15% higher, meaning each night would cost 15% more points. Although the dues for each point are lower, the added points being paid out essentially means the net impact is zero.

The entity that this WOULD benefit is DVC. Instead of selling 13 million points at an average of $90 each, they would have sold 14.95 million points at $90 each.

Again nothing is certain, but this appears to be one approach they are considering with the Contemporary. Higher point charts means more revenue in upfront sales for DVC and the appearance of lower dues.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

It's a function of the operating costs spread over the number of points in circulation. For 2008 the SSR operating budget is over $32 million dollars with another $13 million going into the reserve fund. Property taxes are probably around $12.

High numbers for sure, but those costs are spread over more than 13 million DVC points in circulation at the resort.

As for BLT dues being "low", it's hard to discuss any absolutes since DVC appears to be re-thinking all of the numbers that we have seen. But the first budget that was leaked onto the Internet showed dues in the $3.70 per point neighborhood. That is low when compared to other resorts.

The simplest explanation for that is that the point charts would be higher.

Add up the numbers above for SSR (32 mil + 13 mil + 12 mil = 57mil). Now let's divide by the 13 million points in circulation. That gives us approximate dues of $4.38 per point. That's pretty close to what SSR actually is this year.

Now let's pretend that the point charts for SSR are 15% HIGHER. Instead of selling 13 million points, DVC sold 14.95 million points. The total costs to run the resort will still be $57 million, but we're dividing by 14.95 million points. Suddenly the dues have "dropped" to only $3.81 per point.

That may sound more appealing but in reality owners wouldn't be saving anything. Their point charts would be 15% higher, meaning each night would cost 15% more points. Although the dues for each point are lower, the added points being paid out essentially means the net impact is zero.

The entity that this WOULD benefit is DVC. Instead of selling 13 million points at an average of $90 each, they would have sold 14.95 million points at $90 each.

Again nothing is certain, but this appears to be one approach they are considering with the Contemporary. Higher point charts means more revenue in upfront sales for DVC and the appearance of lower dues.

Ok so even paying lower MF's, your really paying on the front end, aka higher cost per point. Disney is betting that most people will not keep their contracts for the full 50 yrs., so if the average buyer decided to sell thier contracts in "10" yrs., well Disney would really be making a pretty penny!