My numbers are not helping me--what am I overlooking or miscalculating?

FutureSailor

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Sep 20, 2006
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I've posted quite a few questions here over the last week and I am thankful to everyone who has answered. I have figured out that for my family, we need 200 points every two years. (One more-or-less weekly stay before Christmas every other year. We are tied to the school calendar for the next 10+ years. I know some people suggest thinking about longer-term but we have never been to Disney without the kids and have no idea if we would want to go without them. So for the forseeable future, it is Disney every other year in December.)

So to have these 200 points every other year, I thought about purchasing 100 points at VWL, which would cost about $100 per point (buying resale of course and including closing costs) for a total of $10,000. Annual dues is about $450. (I am pretty confident about my numbers up until this point--here's where I try to figure out the long-term costs . . .) If we rented the points, the cost would be $2000 every two years, meaning over the next twenty years we would spend $20,000. If we purchased the points, we would spend the initial $10,000 plus $9,000 in annual dues. So far, buying seems like a slightly better way to go. Until I looked at ing's savings calculator and figured that putting the $10,000 in a savings account earning even just 4 percent over the next twenty years would result, at the end of those twenty years, in a balance of $21,000!

I realize that the cost of renting could go up (as could the annual dues, though). But what else am I not factoring in, or factoring incorrectly??

And I do realize that buying DVC is not an investment--I am not looking to make money. I would like, though, not to pay more for my vacations than necessary. The one thing people have said on these threads that might convince me to buy even if it was a very bad money decision is that they would not take vacations otherwise--that by committing themselves to DVC they commit themselves to taking vacations. Our situation, though, is not like that--we are very regular vacation-takers!
 
FutureSailor said:
I....(snip)........ Until I looked at ing's savings calculator and figured that putting the $10,000 in a savings account earning even just 4 percent over the next twenty years would result, at the end of those twenty years, in a balance of $21,000!
But if you do that, you won't be taking a vacation to WDW very other year, either. :teeth: If you do the calculation assuming you take out money for your resort accomodations every other year, I doubt your $10,000 will last anywhere near 20 years!

Best wishes -

P.S. Most who purchase do not "save" money - because they end up going more often than they originally planned or because they start staying in larger accomodations or they invite others to vacation with them.
 
Just at first glance, your calculations seem to be pretty accurate to me. If you are comparing buying DVC vs. renting ressies here on the DIS @ +/-$10 per point, the results should come out about equal. Generally, the comparison folks make is between owning DVC and staying at a mod or better, and that should come out favoring DVC, but you're making a different comparison.

If there is a fallacy in your assumptions, it may be because of the time you plan on visiting. From your numbers, I'm assuming you are talking about the week before Christmas -- after the low point season, but before the points costs go sky-high.

That is going to be a difficult time to rent; DVC resorts are generally completely sold out for the entire month of December, and most of us book early in the 11-month window. As you might expect, VWL (which is the smallest resort, and the one most in demand during December) will be especially difficult. Therefore, you are likely to pay a premium for that period. The worse possibility is you may not be able to get the accommodations you want at all.

I think your math is good, but I'm not sure the underlying assumptions of your ability to rent consistently are valid.
 
CarolMN said:
P.S. Most who purchase do not "save" money - because they end up going more often than they originally planned or because they start staying in larger accomodations or they invite others to vacation with them.

Yep. Check. Check. Check. All three. The best. Yeah!!!!!!
 

CarolMN said:
P.S. Most who purchase do not "save" money...
I agree with this 100%, BTW. For the reasons Carol gave and several others. For us it's a complex equation, including going more often, taking others, getting to know WDW on a completely different level than we did before (and therefore enjoying it...um, differently :rolleyes1 ), etc, etc.
 
DVC owners that want to vacation during very popular time periods book, sometimes a day at a time, 11 or 7 months before their vacation.

You're not likely to find an owner willing to do that for a renter. Owners who book those kinds of reservations to rent will book them "on spec" and sell them on ebay for far more than $10 /point.
 
i agree with carol that this is where your 'fallacy' lies. if you rent points every other year, your principal declines by 20% (a little less the following years). the magic of compounding interest isn't so magical when the balance is decreasing.

CarolMN said:
But if you do that, you won't be taking a vacation to WDW very other year, either. :teeth: If you do the calculation assuming you take out money for your resort accomodations every other year, I doubt your $10,000 will last anywhere near 20 years!
 
FutureSailor said:
We are tied to the school calendar for the next 10+ years. I know some people suggest thinking about longer-term but we have never been to Disney without the kids and have no idea if we would want to go without them.

IMO, that's your problem right there. Over 10 years you'll be lucky to break even on DVC, much less save any money. If you don't view this as something that you'll be using 20 or 30 years from now, don't buy.
 
The $21,000 you calculated, as others have said, assumes you don't go to WDW at all.

Here's what Excel showed if you take the $10,000, invest it at 4%, and every year add the $450 you'd be paying in dues, and every other year subtract the $2000 you'd be paying to rent points for your vacation.

It looks like this:

Spreadsheet.jpg


At the end of the 20 years, you have $6,117, not $21,000. In reality you won't be able to rent points for $10 over that full time. I know about 1995 points rented around $5.00, and today it's $10 (higher in many cases). Also, the dues would be going up year to year so that makes some other differences.

I did another calculation with dues going up 4% every year, and also rental fees going up 4% every year. In that case, after 20 years, your 'balance' is slightly higher, at $6696.
 
I just want to state that since DVC is so flexible it really depends on how each person/family will use DVC !

I bought this past May because of staying at BWV 8 times paying cash. This August we took our first trip HOME as owners in one 12 month period ( this August through next August ), for trips we would have taken anyways using the cash rate off Disney's website my family would have paid $10180.00 in cash . I paid $18,400.00 for my points and although I'll only get a week in a studio in 2008 I think I'm far ahead in the game.

Owning also gives you perks ( at this time, subject to change at any moment ) that renters may not get.

Also I personally think of the pride of ownership, and what that's worth to me !

Even if you only go with the children when they are of college age and have no interest going to Disney , you could rent out your points for this period, because 36 years at VWL would still get you time to bring GRANDCHILDREN to WDW.


Good Luck
 
Don't forget in 20 years you'll still have 16 years of equity left in the DVC contract. How much will that be worth in 2026 is speculation but it's likely that you could sell it for a good chunk.
 
And is VWL resale really $100 a point? that seems high to me...
and the old compared to the posted rack rates is a fake because most people are never going to pay rack rates to stay in a studio...they will book a moderate or stay offsite or something far less expensive so that is misleading....

DVC has forced us to take a nicer and longer vacation than we would have if we were not "locked into" DVC --we pay around $180-$200 a night for a 1 BR in a deluxe resort for a week or more every other year....if we did not have DVC we would not stay that long nor could we afford the rate for a 1BR so we would be in one hotel room or off site or at a lesser resort...we bought in 2001 and have never regretted it once since...
YMMV :)
 
JimMIA said:
I agree with this 100%, BTW. For the reasons Carol gave and several others. For us it's a complex equation, including going more often, taking others, getting to know WDW on a completely different level than we did before (and therefore enjoying it...um, differently :rolleyes1 ), etc, etc.

I couldn't agree more. DVC has given us more time to enjoy the restaurants, tours, people and magic at WDW! It has also given us a place (besides the bank) to deposit our money.
 
PKS44 said:
and the old compared to the posted rack rates is a fake because most people are never going to pay rack rates to stay in a studio...they will book a moderate or stay offsite or something far less expensive so that is misleading....

Fake it may be for some , just not my family. October of 2003 we paid $8,000.00 for our 2 bedroom BWV . ( this was split by the 8 people staying in the room , not just me )

Also sometimes I'd get an AP rate , but the last couple of years they have been few and far between. You also had to " Do your work " to get any discounts off rack rates.

Like I said it all depends on how you vacation and are going to use DVC.
 
The other thing you haven't considered is that after, say, 5 years of vacations you need to sell, you will receive your investment back, except for dues, so you would actually come out ahead off where you would be if you just rented. If I paid $10,000 for pts, paid $400 per year for dues, and then sold the 100 pts due to a financial reversal, I would get at least $10,000 for the pts, and my vacations that I had previously taken cost me only $400. That's far less than what you would have paid for renting pts. Other than just saving the money, and not vacationing at all, DVC is the better plan. :artist:
 
FutureSailor said:
I know some people suggest thinking about longer-term but we have never been to Disney without the kids and have no idea if we would want to go without them.

tjkraz said:
IMO, that's your problem right there. Over 10 years you'll be lucky to break even on DVC, much less save any money. If you don't view this as something that you'll be using 20 or 30 years from now, don't buy.
As is often the case, tjkraz has focused the same thing I did...and this particular phrase makes me think that DVC is probably not a great way for you to spend your money. I agree that it might not always be easy to rent the exact time you want, or that renting points might get more expensive. But it doesn't appear that the 35 years left in a VWL contract appeal much to you, and if not then I would have a hard time advising you to purchase DVC points.
 
VWL will not cost you $100 per point. I believe that if you bought VWL through Disney it would cost $95 per point plus closing costs. If you bought resale you could easily buy points in the high $80's plus closing costs from one of the 4 top DVC resellers. When I anualzed DVC I took my loan and ran an amortization schedule over the life of the contract. I took the annual payment results plus my dues to figure out my true yearly cost. Then I compared it to renting. If you do not finance then I would take the return I could get on my upfront money. This does not factor in the saving by buying but it does give you a true cost if you decide to hold it until the contract terminates.
 
Like others have stated if you sell your DVC after 20 years you will likely get some if of your 10,000 initial purchace back. Although there will only be 16 years left on the DVC it will still be worth something.
 
If you're only looking to buy DVC for financial reasons, it's probably not the right thing for you. DVC is so much more... But that would take a whole 'nother thread to explain.

We bought in 1993; our kids were 5 and 8 at the time. We were lucky enough to get the park pass perk through 1999. When we bought, we thought that by 1999 we'd be tired of going to Disney all the time and that the kids would be old enough to want to do other things.

WRONG!!! Not only do we use our inititial points, but we have added on 4 times (once at OKW and 3 times at HH). We come pretty close to using our exact allotment of points each year. (Maybe bank a few here and there, but rarely borrow.)

But, that's us. And I'll be the first to admit, that our family looks at Disney a little differently than the general population. (Although not differently than most DIS-ers.)

But, just at WDW is not "just another theme park", DVC is not "just another place to stay." (Thank goodness!!!) :love:
 
Plutofan said:
VWL will not cost you $100 per point. I believe that if you bought VWL through Disney it would cost $95 per point plus closing costs. If you bought resale you could easily buy points in the high $80's plus closing costs from one of the 4 top DVC resellers. When I anualzed DVC I took my loan and ran an amortization schedule over the life of the contract. I took the annual payment results plus my dues to figure out my true yearly cost. Then I compared it to renting. If you do not finance then I would take the return I could get on my upfront money. This does not factor in the saving by buying but it does give you a true cost if you decide to hold it until the contract terminates.

If you are a non-DVC owner you cannot buy a small contract. I know if I put my 50 pt contracts up for sale (I own VWL and BCV) I will put the price at 100 minimum. The small contracts are premium and deserve a premium price.

I have no doubt if I put either of my two for sale at 100 I would bet they would sell quickly.
 











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