Most Economical Resort - Beyond Year 1

[Boosterman]

I really enjoy your analysis and write-ups. Keep em coming!

 

[disneylandtour]

I would have guessed OKW would be below SSR with the way prices are right now but I see it’s ever so slightly higher.

SSR is underpriced!

Resale prices for OWK completely confuse me. I bought OWK Extended last year for $80. I'm very tempted to sell it and get more CCV or BLT.

 

[Chili327]

Update time!

Calling this an October Update, as it includes DVC Resale Market's avg prices from September 2024 but also Poly Direct as a buying category as well as Poly 1BR, Poly 2BR, and Poly 2BRPH points data.

Unfortunately, we don't know the room view distribution of the new Poly rooms so view mix used for some of the calculations is a mildly educated guess on my part.

Methodology remains the same, and I'm not going to rehash it. Review page 1 to get caught up.

Just Year 1

Just Year 5

Just Year 10

Just Year 17

Sum of Years 1-5, Years 1-10, and Years 1-17

Charts

Can anyone tell me why… back in October this analysis was posted, and I’m wondering what caused BLT to go from 3rd in the 5 year, then 5th in 10 year, and all the way down to 11th in 17year?
Maybe I didn’t read deep enough, but it seems like BLT was the only one to drop that drastically?

 

[Lionezz]

well done!

 

[ehh]

Can anyone tell me why… back in October this analysis was posted, and I’m wondering what caused BLT to go from 3rd in the 5 year, then 5th in 10 year, and all the way down to 11th in 17year?
Maybe I didn’t read deep enough, but it seems like BLT was the only one to drop that drastically?

Forecasted dues growth is in the upper-tier, especially for a WDW resort. The analysis in Jul/Oct 2024 predicted a 5.31% dues increase for BLT longterm, based on its dues growth the last 11-15 years.

Only OKW, VB, HHI, and VGC/VDH were predicted to grow more over time.

The glimmer of hope for BLT is that the method I use to predict dues growth, while based on historical dues growth at a resort and somewhat resilient to solitary 'bad years', does lag in response to sustained change (for better or worse). And things have trended down for BLT the last few years. The last two 10yr-CAGRs are 4.72% and 4.73%, while the median of the last five 5yr-CAGRs is 4.63%.

As a small preview of the January 2025 update I plan to post later today, BLT has a 5.14% dues growth prediction based on 2025 dues and is 10th in Year 17. If instead longterm dues growth is more like 4.73%, then it would jump to 6th in Year 17.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Can anyone tell me why… back in October this analysis was posted, and I’m wondering what caused BLT to go from 3rd in the 5 year, then 5th in 10 year, and all the way down to 11th in 17year?
Maybe I didn’t read deep enough, but it seems like BLT was the only one to drop that drastically?

I have always wondered why dues growth at BLT was so high, other than having started at too low a price. It isn’t like they have a lot of grounds to take care of, and theoretically a tower should be low maintenance, and a lot of the transportation is by foot. All I can imagine is a higher tax rate for some reason.

 

[ehh]

I have always wondered why dues growth at BLT was so high, other than having started at too low a price. It isn’t like they have a lot of grounds to take care of, and theoretically a tower should be low maintenance, and a lot of the transportation is by foot. All I can imagine is a higher tax rate for some reason.

I've also wondered this but have never dug into the costs breakdowns provided by DVC (nor do I have expertise in that stuff). I would definitely be interested if someone did this analysis though!

 

[ehh]

January 2025 Edition of Most Economical Resort - Beyond Year 1

Alright, some more-significant-than-normal changes for this update:

1. 2025 Dues are now posted and new longterm growth rates have been calculated!
2. I've expanded the resale pricing to be the average of the last 3 months posted by dvcresalemarket.com, to avoid one-month blips.
3. Final Poly room counts for Island Tower (used in the average pts/wk figures)
4. I'm now counting the CFW Cabins as both a Studio and a 1BR, so they're reflected in both sets of tables.
   • They're a surprisingly good value as 1BR, even with the direct cost and ridiculous dues. But if you consider them to be more like super Studios then they're near the bottom of the tables for Studio value.

Charts
All years:

Zoomed in to just next 10 years:

Tables for Year 1, 5, 10, and 17 Costs

As a reminder, these are representations of how much points 'cost' for contracts bought today in Year 1, Year 5, Year 10, and Year 17.

But I prefer to look at resorts by the sum of a range of years, rather than isolated years.

Tables for Years 1-5, 1-10, and 1-17
Of these, the Years 1-10 is my favorite as it's decently longterm but not so far out that likely dues prediction errors wipe it all out.

Cost of Stays, Studios

Cost of Stays, 1 Bedrooms

Cost of Stays, 2 Bedrooms

Cost of Stays at Grand Villas, Penthouses, and Cabungahouses

 

[Tatebeck]

Looks about like what I expected. SSR or AUL(s) for pure SAP and CCV, BLT, or AKV for SAP+ at WDW.

 

[disneylandtour]

I might add in one more variable. I'm suspect that, over time, single towers with minimal grounds (RIV, BLT, etc) will be less expensive to maintain them resorts with a lot of grounds and multiple structures (such as OKW, etc.). I do think that, in part, because of this, in the end, BLT will end up higher on the list of good values (nearly no grounds, one structure, and a small pool), but, again, we'll see.

 

[Chili327]

I might add in one more variable. I'm suspect that, over time, single towers with minimal grounds (RIV, BLT, etc) will be less expensive to maintain them resorts with a lot of grounds and multiple structures (such as OKW, etc.). I do think that, in part, because of this, in the end, BLT will end up higher on the list of good values (nearly no grounds, one structure, and a small pool), but, again, we'll see.

I would agree, but do we think OKW is higher than SSR because it actually costs more to maintain, or just that it’s been around longer so it has had more time to raise the cost?

 

[Tatebeck]

I would agree, but do we think OKW is higher than SSR because it actually costs more to maintain, or just that it’s been around longer so it has had more time to raise the cost?

For now I think it is because of age. It's easier to maintain something when it is newer.

But even as they both age, SSR dues should stay behind OKW. Not only because it is newer but because it has slightly higher point charts mostly because it has preferred view rooms, where OKW only has one view and has no premium for a different view.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Looks about like what I expected. SSR or AUL(s) for pure SAP and CCV, BLT, or AKV for SAP+ at WDW.

Ahem…. Grand Floridian….

 

[disneylandtour]

I would agree, but do we think OKW is higher than SSR because it actually costs more to maintain, or just that it’s been around longer so it has had more time to raise the cost?

I suspect that age is a factor here. It's simply older than SSR--hence more maintenance.

 

[Tatebeck]

Ahem…. Grand Floridian….

What about it? It LOOKS good on some of the charts, but only because of the dues, which I and some others feel have been unsustainably low. The report even said that they put their finger on the scale because they thought it was unsustainably low and they STILL under predicted the dues increase.

So it only looks good based on the least sure aspect of the calculation. It has a higher point cost so a higher cost of entry, AND high points charts. If you get a great price or are gifted the membership for free and don't ever use your points there, then it is good SAP.

Even if you use those past low past dues as the roadmap, if you use your points there regularly it drops to around 15th place on the cost of stays chart that adjusts for point charts, so I would avoid it for SAP+, unless you really love VGF and don't like any of the other SAP+ choices. Same with poly

 

[Mirabell Rose]

Great info!
BLT may be a single tower versus multiple buildings, but that may be more of an issue with the ground water changes given its weight. And Florida after the collapse of the one condo building has been said to have increased its maintenance and oversight requirements. So there are factors that come into play outside of size of grounds, etc. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[AstroBlasters]

What about it? It LOOKS good on some of the charts, but only because of the dues, which I and some others feel have been unsustainably low. The report even said that they put their finger on the scale because they thought it was unsustainably low and they STILL under predicted the dues increase.

So it only looks good based on the least sure aspect of the calculation. It has a higher point cost so a higher cost of entry, AND high points charts. If you get a great price or are gifted the membership for free and don't ever use your points there, then it is good SAP.

Even if you use those past low past dues as the roadmap, if you use your points there regularly it drops to around 15th place on the cost of stays chart that adjusts for point charts, so I would avoid it for SAP+, unless you really love VGF and don't like any of the other SAP+ choices. Same with poly

It’s literally #2 on the year 1-17 analysis….

 

[Tatebeck]

It’s literally #2 on the year 1-17 analysis….

Yes, on that one section of many, only because of it's (in my opinion unsustainable) estimated low dues in the future, before taking into account point charts. Only then is it projected as a distant second to AUL(s). It is much further down the list in early years and only makes up ground because of the estimated low dues in later years. So if you want to wait 17 years to get SAP value, and you are confident that the dues will stay low, then it could be good for SAP. But if you want the best SAP value overall it was AUL(s). And I would still say SSR is a better pure SAP value due to it's lower guaranteed up front cost. Why buy more expensive VGF points if you never want to use them there and you have to hope that the dues stay low in order to get the value made up 17 years from now?

I just don't think you should try to glean too much from the resorts that rely on the most uncertain variable in the equation. Maybe a safe alternative would be to rerun the list again with the dues being for the calculation set at halfway between that resort's estimate based on historical average and the average estimate for the area, WDW, etc. This would help tone down outliers like unreasonably high or low estimated dues 17 years from now.

Then once you start looking at the actual value if you use points at the home resort, it's value drops significantly as SAP+ points.
14th for studio value
16th for 1br value
14th for 2br value
12th for cabungalow value.

So it drops from around 2nd to around 15th if you use your points there, and it would drop even further if the dues start to increase more than expected from their historical increases. And I feel this is the correct way to look at the resort since it's high point charts are part of the reason why it's dues have stayed lower thus far. So I personally wouldn't pick it unless I loved staying there. I personally like Poly more than VGF for a high point chart low dues resort.

 

[Mr_Woodchuck]

I am so jealous of those who stay weeks in the Cabungahouses.

 

[ehh]

Something I want to do over the coming days/weeks is answer standalone questions using the methodology I've used in this thread.

Questions I've already come up with that I want to answer:

• Is Vero Beach decent for SAP at any price? Even free?
• How much extra should an OKW57 contract sell for vs. OKW42?
• How much extra should a subsidized Aulani contract sell for vs. non-subsidized?
• At what $/pt does Riviera resale become a very good deal? What about VDH? CFW?

Some of these are trivially quick to answer, others require a bit more thought. Either way, I intend to give each question their own posts in this thread.

I'd also be open to answering any standalone questions others have!