Most Economical Resort - Beyond Year 1

[intamin]

Got Studios right! And very close for 1BR/2BR!

For this phase, I'm just looking at year 1, to remove the complexity of forecasting future rack rates. I fully intend to do longer range analyses.

Also of note, I did 'dumb averages' for cash rates, not weighted by room category count (which I did do for points). I actually did a properly weighted average for AKV Studios and it ended up being within $1/night and decided to just drop it overall. Some resorts that have significant imbalances will be slightly misrepresented in the 'Average' categories (PVB and RIV come to mind).

As a reminder, the "Cheapest [room]" category describes an average week of the lowest points room view/location, not the cheapest season. "Average [room]" is an average of all room views/locations in the category, including the cheapest.

Also, I used Touring Plans publicly posted cash rates, which are limited to just WDW resorts.

Studios

1 Bedrooms

* HUGE DISCLAIMER about CFW: this is based on the 2024 cash rates of the old cabins as there is not full year data for the new cabins (nor has Touring Plans posted what 2024 cash rates exist for the new cabins). Complete 2025 cash rates are not available anywhere, including from Disney.

If the new cabins have a 10% bump in cash rate over the course of the year, that puts the discount in the mid/high-20s, above RIV-D 1BR!


2 Bedrooms

** Normal sized disclaimer about AKV: there's no published cash rates for lock-offs, so all of Jambo has no 2BR cash rates posted, which means no Value or Concierge cash rates are factored in. This probably doesn't matter much for the Average, but it means there is no available cash rate for the Cheapest (which is Value 2BR).

This also impacts BWV, which only has 2BRLO and therefore has no rack rates.


3 Bedroom Grand Villas and Cabungahouses

I was not able to find the cash rates for AKV 3BRGV Standard View or BoardWalk 3BRGV.


Next thing up: forecasting cash rates and doing longer term analyses. I'm leaning toward just copying the dues growth factors I used, but happy to hear arguments for other forecasting methods.

Darn it I had AKV up there before changing my mind LOL I knew it wasn't RIV/VGF/Poly

 

[VGCgroupie]

Stop it! I don’t need BLT. I said 4 contacts was enough.

 

[VGCgroupie]

But seriously though, this is great info. Super grateful.

 

[CastAStone]

1 Bedrooms

*

I’ve got a new place to point people to warn them off of buying DVC to mostly stay in 1BRs!

Put a 30% discount on that cash rate and you’re barely above water at most resorts.

It is interesting that, while for most resorts studios are a 15-20% better deal that 1BRs, at AKV it’s much closer.

 

[ehh]

I’ve got a new place to point people to warn them off of buying DVC to mostly stay in 1BRs!

Put a 30% discount on that cash rate and you’re barely above water at most resorts.

It is interesting that, while for most resorts studios are a 15-20% better deal that 1BRs, at AKV it’s much closer.

Welp, part of that is a small mistake I made. Unlike every other resort + room category combo, AKV 1BR was the lone time I neglected to include the Cheapest room into the Average calculation.

Only a small change from 55.4% discount to 53.8%, but a mistake nonetheless. Corrected chart:

(I will also edit the original post)

Your broader point still stands though, the discount drop is lower at AKV. Another factor in this is the <2x points chart scaling from Studios to 1BR, which is uncommon (though, curiously, BLT also has it).

 

[Tatebeck]

Whoo go BLT and AKV owners! Been saying it for a while though I didn't have the math to back it up, just my brain telling me lol. CCV pretty good too especially for 2br

 

[Disdreaming479]

Thank you for this great info!

 

[ehh]

Next thing up: forecasting cash rates and doing longer term analyses. I'm leaning toward just copying the dues growth factors I used, but happy to hear arguments for other forecasting methods.

Dues growth factor isn't going to work for forecasting rack rates. In only a few years the full priced cash rates of BLT exceed that of VGF, which will ~never happen.

In order to maintain the cash rate heirarchy of resorts, I think I need to use the same growth factor across all resorts. But what should that be? I've been using 4.38% as a 'generic WDW' dues growth factor for newer resorts, should I use that?

 

[atthebeachclub]

Dues growth factor isn't going to work for forecasting rack rates. In only a few years the full priced cash rates of BLT exceed that of VGF, which will ~never happen.

In order to maintain the cash rate heirarchy of resorts, I think I need to use the same growth factor across all resorts. But what should that be? I've been using 4.38% as a 'generic WDW' dues growth factor for newer resorts, should I use that?

What about average annual expected inflation? Or average annual Disney inflation (based on things like historic hotel/ticket/food inflation, if the data is available) we usually see? I would do a different column comparing with the 4.38% number, which is also possible/plausible.

 

[ehh]

What about average annual expected inflation? Or average annual Disney inflation (based on things like historic hotel/ticket/food inflation, if the data is available) we usually see? I would do a different column comparing with the 4.38% number, which is also possible/plausible.

I'm very much trying to avoid having to track down a comprehensive set of historical cash rates at Disney

 

[JackosinDIS]

Dues growth factor isn't going to work for forecasting rack rates. In only a few years the full priced cash rates of BLT exceed that of VGF, which will ~never happen.

In order to maintain the cash rate heirarchy of resorts, I think I need to use the same growth factor across all resorts. But what should that be? I've been using 4.38% as a 'generic WDW' dues growth factor for newer resorts, should I use that?

I think I would go with average rate of inflation over the past 20 years. Suspect that rack rates will track that fairly closely. I don’t think rates have really gone up at all this year.

Agree that dues inflation is not the correct model to use here

 

[ehh]

I think I would go with average rate of inflation over the past 20 years. Suspect that rack rates will track that fairly closely. I don’t think rates have really gone up at all this year.

Agree that dues inflation is not the correct model to use here

I'm not sure inflation is right either. Last few years have been atypical due to world circumstances.

And going to pre-pandemic probably also isn't right either: annual inflation rate from 2001-2020 was 1.7%, rack rates CAGR was much higher (IIRC, analysis from others had it over 5%).

I suppose I'm slowly talking myself into looking for historical cash rates...sigh.

 

[Chili327]

Whoo go BLT and AKV owners! Been saying it for a while though I didn't have the math to back it up, just my brain telling me lol. CCV pretty good too especially for 2br

Same!!
Glad to have both and CCV would be on the list if I wanted more points.

 

[CarolynFH]

I'm not sure inflation is right either. Last few years have been atypical due to world circumstances.

And going to pre-pandemic probably also isn't right either: annual inflation rate from 2001-2020 was 1.7%, rack rates CAGR was much higher (IIRC, analysis from others had it over 5%).

I suppose I'm slowly talking myself into looking for historical cash rates...sigh.

I think that Mousesavers has historical data. I saw a link to it earlier today but can’t remember where.

 

[MartyParty]

I'm not sure inflation is right either. Last few years have been atypical due to world circumstances.

And going to pre-pandemic probably also isn't right either: annual inflation rate from 2001-2020 was 1.7%, rack rates CAGR was much higher (IIRC, analysis from others had it over 5%).

I suppose I'm slowly talking myself into looking for historical cash rates...sigh.

Ehh, as always enjoying all the spreadsheet work you're doing. Overall analysis seems to reinforce the DVC message that:

• If you plan on visiting the parks for a number of years (15+)
• And you will be staying on property for moderate or deluxe hotels
• Long-term DVC can reduce your cost by 30%? 40? 50% Seems like 50% isn't a stretch.

Then DVC makes sense from a cost avoidance perspective (I cringe saying savings and try to avoid the DVC is an investment mindset). And if you're going to be staying in 2BR or 3BR suites then the cost avoidance racks up more quickly.

I will say for us DVC has changed our habits. Without those points I'd find a hard time paying for those cash rates for 2/3BR stays. But in an odd money psychological way I found it ok to pony up the initial DVC purchase price and annual dues. Perhaps it's the 50-year time horizon of Disney room rates today vs the future? Once we made that initial purchase then how we thought about our onsite says greatly change in both frequency and accommodation types.

As far as the "exactness" of the calculation I think you're close enough within a margin of error of +/-10%. Considering:

When someone bought points?
Did they buy at the direct or resale price point?
How much will dues escalate?
How much will Disney hotel rooms escalate (just checked VDH for end of the year and its almost $900/nt for studio???)?
What kind of future hotel promotions will be offered?
How much escalation?
Hou much inflation?

Plenty of math here for me to chew on and justify what we've done as a family. But if you'd like to continue cranking out more data, I'm more than happy to keep reading it! No pressure. Thanks for all you've done and continue to do.

 

[intamin]

Got Studios right! And very close for 1BR/2BR!

For this phase, I'm just looking at year 1, to remove the complexity of forecasting future rack rates. I fully intend to do longer range analyses.

Also of note, I did 'dumb averages' for cash rates, not weighted by room category count (which I did do for points). I actually did a properly weighted average for AKV Studios and it ended up being within $1/night and decided to just drop it overall. Some resorts that have significant imbalances will be slightly misrepresented in the 'Average' categories (PVB and RIV come to mind).

As a reminder, the "Cheapest [room]" category describes an average week of the lowest points room view/location, not the cheapest season. "Average [room]" is an average of all room views/locations in the category, including the cheapest.

Also, I used Touring Plans publicly posted cash rates, which are limited to just WDW resorts.

Studios

1 Bedrooms

* HUGE DISCLAIMER about CFW: this is based on the 2024 cash rates of the old cabins as there is not full year data for the new cabins (nor has Touring Plans posted what 2024 cash rates exist for the new cabins). Complete 2025 cash rates are not available anywhere, including from Disney.

If the new cabins have a 10% bump in cash rate over the course of the year, that puts the discount in the mid/high-20s, above RIV-D 1BR!


2 Bedrooms

** Normal sized disclaimer about AKV: there's no published cash rates for lock-offs, so all of Jambo has no 2BR cash rates posted, which means no Value or Concierge cash rates are factored in. This probably doesn't matter much for the Average, but it means there is no available cash rate for the Cheapest (which is Value 2BR).

This also impacts BWV, which only has 2BRLO and therefore has no rack rates.


3 Bedroom Grand Villas and Cabungahouses

I was not able to find the cash rates for AKV 3BRGV Standard View or BoardWalk 3BRGV.


Next thing up: forecasting cash rates and doing longer term analyses. I'm leaning toward just copying the dues growth factors I used, but happy to hear arguments for other forecasting methods.

Oh wow so it’s pretty much never worth it to stay in a RIV 1BR with points then?

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Oh wow so it’s pretty much never worth it to stay in a RIV 1BR with points then?

Upsetting, it’s literally my favorite room on property (that I’ve stayed in anyway)

 

[MartyParty]

Upsetting, it’s literally my favorite room on property (that I’ve stayed in anyway)

I don't think that's the case. Just that the one-year view of points/cash isn't as great as it would be at the other resorts. And keep in mind this is one year. I bet all this changes for RIV as the years go by.

But ehh is the master of the numbers. I'm sure he will offer an opinion.

 

[ehh]

I think that Mousesavers has historical data. I saw a link to it earlier today but can’t remember where.

They do have 2024, but appear to have partially taken down prior years.

On top of that, their mixed $111/$222/$333 and $111/$222 formatting is something I'd have to build a processing pipeline for. It's doable, but I just don't want to.

In this regard, the Touring Plans data is better, as it's 1 row per date and goes back to at least 2014 (though with some years missing?). But it's a lot of data wrangling I want to avoid, if there's an alternative.

Ehh, as always enjoying all the spreadsheet work you're doing. Overall analysis seems to reinforce the DVC message that:

• If you plan on visiting the parks for a number of years (15+)
• And you will be staying on property for moderate or deluxe hotels
• Long-term DVC can reduce your cost by 30%? 40? 50% Seems like 50% isn't a stretch.

Then DVC makes sense from a cost avoidance perspective (I cringe saying savings and try to avoid the DVC is an investment mindset). And if you're going to be staying in 2BR or 3BR suites then the cost avoidance racks up more quickly.

I will say for us DVC has changed our habits. Without those points I'd find a hard time paying for those cash rates for 2/3BR stays. But in an odd money psychological way I found it ok to pony up the initial DVC purchase price and annual dues. Perhaps it's the 50-year time horizon of Disney room rates today vs the future? Once we made that initial purchase then how we thought about our onsite says greatly change in both frequency and accommodation types.

As far as the "exactness" of the calculation I think you're close enough within a margin of error of +/-10%. Considering:

When someone bought points?
Did they buy at the direct or resale price point?
How much will dues escalate?
How much will Disney hotel rooms escalate (just checked VDH for end of the year and its almost $900/nt for studio???)?
What kind of future hotel promotions will be offered?
How much escalation?
Hou much inflation?

Plenty of math here for me to chew on and justify what we've done as a family. But if you'd like to continue cranking out more data, I'm more than happy to keep reading it! No pressure. Thanks for all you've done and continue to do.

One of the things I want to show with the longterm comparion to cash rate is that DVC fares better as it ages. With this way of measuring DVC costs, Year 1 is the worst case scenario for DVC. This is due to how upfront costs are apportioned.

It's a safe assumption to say cash rates go up every year, or certainly over any 5yr period. If it goes up 5%/yr, that's continued compound growth.

Dues are similar in this regard. But go back to Post 2 of this thread and the upfront cost apportionment goes down over time. For some resorts, this results in flat or decreasing annual overall costs over the first 5 - 15 years.

Going back to this chart, there's a bunch of resorts that have lower 2034 'costs' than in 2025:

So DVC 'costs' sometimes ~flatline for the first 5-15 years while cash rates go in one direction: up. And even past the flatline stage for a DVC resort, the DVC 'costs' growth is slower than dues when measured this way because:

• Dues aren't 100% of the cost
• The upfront cost apportionment decreases each year.

Oh wow so it’s pretty much never worth it to stay in a RIV 1BR with points then?

It very much is! Even with RIV Direct points!

Here's 1 week per year at RIV 1BR, DVC costs vs. cash rates with 2 different growth factors for rack rates: 4.38% (what I used for Generic WDW dues growth) and 5.38%:

By 2035, even with just 4.38% rack rate growth, RIV-D is a 51.3% discount vs. cash rates on the Standard View side. 2037 for Preferred View.

And the difference just keeps growing, peaking at 66% in the final year (for SV @ 4.38%) and nearly 78% for SV @ 5.38%.

DVC is, and always has been, a longterm play. And the numbers do work out for even RIV Direct PV 1BR.

 

[WeIcomeHome]

Wouldn't surprise me if Riviera rack rates increase once all rooms are declared. Currently, it's in Disney's best interest to maximize profits which is a fine line between selling all rooms or higher price with some vacancy. Once they have less inventory to sell I would expect that demand curve will allow an increase in the rack rate.