More fast pass + for deluxe resort guest

[tmadden]

I am reading the rumor mill. Hearing that people @ moderate resorts will get more fastpass + attractions to choose over value resort guest. Also the deluxe resort guest will receive more selections than moderate resort guest. Anyone else hearing this?

 

[Disneylover99]

No. Where did you hear this from?

 

[tmadden]

reading on other sites not disney site.

 

[AJRitz]

There were some rumors of this early on, but no evidence that it was anything more than pure speculation. I think there are some Parks & Resorts execs who think they want to do it that way, as a cheap way to drive guests toward more expensive resorts. But FP+ is about Operations. Variable FP+ distribution makes crowd flow predictions more difficult and using FP+ for crowd shaping and guest distribution harder.

 

[tjkraz]

But FP+ is about Operations.

Naah. FP+ is about making money, first and foremost. I'll be shocked if all Disney resort guests don't receive SOME added FP+ benefit...and it only makes sense for those at higher-priced resorts to get even better benefits.

Most straightforward implementation I could envision would be:

6 per day for Deluxe resort guests
5 per day for Moderate
4 per day for Value
3 per day for all others

And really, I don't see how this makes "crowd flow predictions" harder. Guests still have to pre-register their FP+ times in order to obtain the greatest benefit.

Within a few weeks of full implementation they'll have mountains of data on guest travel patterns which can be used to spot trends.

 

[rt2dz]

Naah. FP+ is about making money, first and foremost. I'll be shocked if all Disney resort guests don't receive SOME added FP+ benefit...and it only makes sense for those at higher-priced resorts to get even better benefits.

Most straightforward implementation I could envision would be:

6 per day for Deluxe resort guests
5 per day for Moderate
4 per day for Value
3 per day for all others

And really, I don't see how this makes "crowd flow predictions" harder. Guests still have to pre-register their FP+ times in order to obtain the greatest benefit.

Within a few weeks of full implementation they'll have mountains of data on guest travel patterns which can be used to spot trends.

And then how many for DVC? Is that 3, 6, or 7?

Sent from my iPad using DISBoards

 

[AJRitz]

Naah. FP+ is about making money, first and foremost. I'll be shocked if all Disney resort guests don't receive SOME added FP+ benefit...and it only makes sense for those at higher-priced resorts to get even better benefits.

Most straightforward implementation I could envision would be:

6 per day for Deluxe resort guests
5 per day for Moderate
4 per day for Value
3 per day for all others

And really, I don't see how this makes "crowd flow predictions" harder. Guests still have to pre-register their FP+ times in order to obtain the greatest benefit.

Within a few weeks of full implementation they'll have mountains of data on guest travel patterns which can be used to spot trends.

It doesn't make the predictions much harder (though it does somewhat - the more FP+ people hold, the more likely they are to decide to skip some of them, because the "marginal cost" for the skipped attraction is lower). But it does make using FP+ to steer crowds MUCH harder, because there simply aren't enough attraction reservations to go around to give 6 to Deluxe Guests, 5 to Moderate Guests and 4 to Value Guests. The Magic Kingdom, maybe could accommodate that many. But none of the other three parks have enough FP+ attraction slots to fulfill that many reservations.

In order to be able to use FP+ to do on-the-fly crowd shaping, they need to preserve open slots to distribute as needed.

And it still helps them make money. The core of FP+ is about maximizing the utilization rate of park resources. They can make the parks accommodate more guests on more attractions, but feel less crowded by better distributing guests. And the busier the parks are, the more important this is. They're bumping their heads on capacity at peak times, and those are lost dollars AND likely people who are angry about it and don't come back.

 

[apainterxx44]

If there's any added benefit I assume it would be by the magic your way package you choose not hotel stay. Disney has made big changes before and we have all gotten used to them. I'm sure they won't make a huge mistake and everything they do will have an educated reason.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

And then how many for DVC? Is that 3, 6, or 7?

Sent from my iPad using DISBoards

All DVCs are considered "deluxe" resorts.

 

[WDW1979]

there simply aren't enough attraction reservations to go around to give 6 to Deluxe Guests, 5 to Moderate Guests and 4 to Value Guests

I have seen a post before by someone who ran the math that agrees with what you have written so you may be right, but with Disney slapping Fastpass+ machines on everything but the washrooms, who knows!

 

[ChristineNic]

I have seen a post before by someone who ran the math that agrees with what you have written so you may be right, but with Disney slapping Fastpass+ machines on everything but the washrooms, who knows!

On weekend evenings at F&W, some people may want to book a rest room FP+.

 

[EagleScout]

Naah. FP+ is about making money, first and foremost. I'll be shocked if all Disney resort guests don't receive SOME added FP+ benefit...and it only makes sense for those at higher-priced resorts to get even better benefits.

Most straightforward implementation I could envision would be:

6 per day for Deluxe resort guests
5 per day for Moderate
4 per day for Value
3 per day for all others

And really, I don't see how this makes "crowd flow predictions" harder. Guests still have to pre-register their FP+ times in order to obtain the greatest benefit.

Within a few weeks of full implementation they'll have mountains of data on guest travel patterns which can be used to spot trends.

Due to the possible space constraints/ ride capacity limitations with giving "too many" fps, the other option would be to give deluxe an earlier pre-booking window (even a day or two) compared to moderate, who would then have a day or two before values.

 

[bcrook]

We played with these numbers earlier.

FP+ Capacity.

I think there are incentive FP available. But maybe not as high as Tim suggested.

Everything is based on 60% FP utilization. It could be kicked up to 70% or higher.

I am willing to update the info.

 

[WisconsinDad]

I am staying at CR in one month and was allowed to select three FP+ attractions per day. Also, they all have to be in one park/day and the same ride/attraction can't be selected more than once per day.

If what you read is true, I haven't seen it yet.

 

[tjkraz]

I am staying at CR in one month and was allowed to select three FP+ attractions per day. Also, they all have to be in one park/day and the same ride/attraction can't be selected more than once per day.

If what you read is true, I haven't seen it yet.

If you're referring to my earlier post in this thread, no there is no truth to it. It was just an illustration on my part.

Disney is still exploring different options for implementing FP+. Many things have already changed during testing and they will change again even after the system goes live.

But personally I will be very surprised if Disney does not take advantage of this opportunity to offer guests another reason to pay their overpriced on-site room rates.

We played with these numbers earlier.

FP+ Capacity.

I've skimmed those numbers but frankly it's so littered with assumptions and guesswork that it's impossible to use as any real basis for discussion.

Here is what I know to be true about the current paper FP system:
- It is available at 1/2 to 1/3 of the attractions slated for FP+
- It is available to all guests.
- It can be used at multiple theme parks per day.
- Other than the 2 hour time limit between FPs, there are no limits on the number of tickets you can pull in a single day.
- There are no restrictions on the attractions at which it can be used in a single day (i.e. you CAN get FPs in the same day for Toy Story Mania, Star Tours, Tower of Terror AND Rock N Rollercoaster.)
- FP can be used multiple times at the same attraction in a single day.

With all of that said, under the current system it's very easy to collect 4-6 FPs per day. Many people claim to secure even more than 6 per day.

Frankly I cannot accept that FP+ would be forced to cap all guests at a lower level when:
- There are so many more attractions offered.
- Attractions are grouped to limit access to certain headliners.
- There is (currently) a hard cap of 3 experiences per guest.

Under BOTH systems, there are people who will choose not to use it. There are people who won't understand it and/or not even know it exists. There are people who will allow their ride times to expire unused. There are people who will park hop and be unable to use FP+ at the second (or third, or fourth) destination.

Overall, the FP+ projections linked above just don't add up, IMO.

Everything is based on 60% FP utilization. It could be kicked up to 70% or higher.

I have read unsubstantiated reports that Disney can push it up to 90% FP utilization during busy periods.

And frankly, my own observations support that. On many occasions I've found myself in the queue for attractions like Rock N Rollercoaster, Test Track and Soarin when the number of guests taken from the FP return queue easily outpace Standby at a 10-1 rate.

Fortunately I'm usually in the FP line when that happens.

 

[bcrook]

I've skimmed those numbers but frankly it's so littered with assumptions and guesswork that it's impossible to use as any real basis for discussion.

There were quite a few people contributing to those numbers. We researched most of them. The headliners information is out there.

Here is a good example of discussion and verification.

Even if those numbers are not exact, it does provide a good place for conversation.

Here is what I know to be true about the current paper FP system:
- It is available at 1/2 to 1/3 of the attractions slated for FP+
- It is available to all guests.
- It can be used at multiple theme parks per day.
- Other than the 2 hour time limit between FPs, there are no limits on the number of tickets you can pull in a single day.
- There are no restrictions on the attractions at which it can be used in a single day (i.e. you CAN get FPs in the same day for Toy Story Mania, Star Tours, Tower of Terror AND Rock N Rollercoaster.)
- FP can be used multiple times at the same attraction in a single day.

With all of that said, under the current system it's very easy to collect 4-6 FPs per day. Many people claim to secure even more than 6 per day.

Frankly I cannot accept that FP+ would be forced to cap all guests at a lower level when:
- There are so many more attractions offered.
- Attractions are grouped to limit access to certain headliners.
- There is (currently) a hard cap of 3 experiences per guest.

Under BOTH systems, there are people who will choose not to use it. There are people who won't understand it and/or not even know it exists. There are people who will allow their ride times to expire unused. There are people who will park hop and be unable to use FP+ at the second (or third, or fourth) destination.

I think one of the differences in the new system is that Disney is highly motivated to get every person staying on and off site hooked up in My Disney Experience and using the magic band, this is where the truly great data comes from. Knowing who is going to be in which park which day.

Disney needs demand for the rides. When rides start booking up in advance, people will see the need to log in and register. There are also fastpicks. And Disney may end up holding 3 for every person who shows up.

I do agree with you on the no shows. That will extend the Fastpass numbers, Disney will know that percentage and "oversell".

Overall, the FP+ projections linked above just don't add up, IMO.



I have read unsubstantiated reports that Disney can push it up to 90% FP utilization during busy periods.

But if they consistently run 80%-90% FP lines, standby will be terrible.

Overall, Disney has been very consistent from the beginning: FP+ will be up to three. It really hasn't varied. There is a reason.

And I haven't seen much change from the initial unveiling in January. It looks like they are sticking to their guns. The only thing so far is they have removed the tiers. I don't think that will last. Tiers will provide headliner surplus for the deluxe resorts.

 

[tjkraz]

There were quite a few people contributing to those numbers. We researched most of them. The headliners information is out there.

Here is a good example of discussion and verification.

Even if those numbers are not exact, it does provide a good place for conversation.

But it's meaningless conversation if the numbers are worthless.

The only reliable numbers I see are theoretical riders per hour. Beyond that, everything is completely speculative including:

- Fastpass / standby ratios
- Percentage of FPs which go unused
- Percentage of guests who choose to use FP
- Percentage of guests who enter the parks with no intention to ride any attraction

You're using attendance averages to assume every person entering the park is a rider. But there are people who go to Epcot just for dinner, and people who go to the Magic Kingdom just to walk around, and grandparents who go to Animal Kingdom just for the safari and a couple of shows. On numerous occasions i've walked through Epcot just to get to the monorail. I still get counted as a guest, but never came close to riding an attraction.

Not every guest entering the parks is headed for an "E" Ticket....far from it!

I think one of the differences in the new system is that Disney is highly motivated to get every person staying on and off site hooked up in My Disney Experience and using the magic band, this is where the truly great data comes from. Knowing who is going to be in which park which day.

Today, there are people who refuse to simply slide their ticket through a machine in order to save 45 minutes of wait time. What makes you think these people are going to pre-plan their movements weeks in advance via a web browser or smartphone?!?

With all due respect, I think you're missing the forest for the trees when it comes to how this is going to play out. The current Fastpass system couldn't be simpler. And it's a very big time saver for everyone who chooses to participate. Yet THOUSANDS of guests each day are CHOOSING not to participate.

Today, on a typical day in any of the four parks, I can get FastPasses for each of the 4-5 headliners within a 7-8 hour visit.

Now suddenly Disney plans to limit my daily access to those headliners AND double or triple the number of offerings at each park.

Disney may be "highly motivated" to get people to use the system, but guests still have to cooperate. Again we're talking about sliding a ticket vs. wristbands/webpages/advance planning. Common sense tells me that FP utilization will not immediately rise as a result.

You could argue that guests will be "forced" to participate if they want to ride the headliners. But people have a way of not liking to be "forced" to do anything. If Disney sets up too many barriers, the most obvious response will be for people to spend their money elsewhere.

I don't blame Disney for being conservative in their FP+ testing and initial implementation. The last thing they want to do is go public with a limit of 4 or 5 FP+ for everyone, and then have to scale it back to 3.

Nevertheless, I think the system has a lot more capacity than your numbers suggest. The FP ratios are unknown. Volume of unredeemed FPs are unknown. And number of admissions who pull limited or zero FPs in a visit are unknown.

 

[bcrook]

But it's meaningless conversation if the numbers are worthless.

The only reliable numbers I see are theoretical riders per hour. Beyond that, everything is completely speculative including:

- Fastpass / standby ratios
- Percentage of FPs which go unused
- Percentage of guests who choose to use FP
- Percentage of guests who enter the parks with no intention to ride any attraction

You're using attendance averages to assume every person entering the park is a rider. But there are people who go to Epcot just for dinner, and people who go to the Magic Kingdom just to walk around, and grandparents who go to Animal Kingdom just for the safari and a couple of shows. On numerous occasions i've walked through Epcot just to get to the monorail. I still get counted as a guest, but never came close to riding an attraction.

Not every guest entering the parks is headed for an "E" Ticket....far from it!



Today, there are people who refuse to simply slide their ticket through a machine in order to save 45 minutes of wait time. What makes you think these people are going to pre-plan their movements weeks in advance via a web browser or smartphone?!?

With all due respect, I think you're missing the forest for the trees when it comes to how this is going to play out. The current Fastpass system couldn't be simpler. And it's a very big time saver for everyone who chooses to participate. Yet THOUSANDS of guests each day are CHOOSING not to participate.

Today, on a typical day in any of the four parks, I can get FastPasses for each of the 4-5 headliners within a 7-8 hour visit.

Now suddenly Disney plans to limit my daily access to those headliners AND double or triple the number of offerings at each park.

Disney may be "highly motivated" to get people to use the system, but guests still have to cooperate. Again we're talking about sliding a ticket vs. wristbands/webpages/advance planning. Common sense tells me that FP utilization will not immediately rise as a result.

You could argue that guests will be "forced" to participate if they want to ride the headliners. But people have a way of not liking to be "forced" to do anything. If Disney sets up too many barriers, the most obvious response will be for people to spend their money elsewhere.

I don't blame Disney for being conservative in their FP+ testing and initial implementation. The last thing they want to do is go public with a limit of 4 or 5 FP+ for everyone, and then have to scale it back to 3.

Nevertheless, I think the system has a lot more capacity than your numbers suggest. The FP ratios are unknown. Volume of unredeemed FPs are unknown. And number of admissions who pull limited or zero FPs in a visit are unknown.

For FP+ to used as an incentive to get more people to fork over more money and stay in deluxe, there has to be an advantage. There needs to be demand. If most people are too uninformed to use it, don't want to use, just want to eat in the park, then the perk is not very effective for most people. At Epcot and DAK there isn't any reason to have 5 FP+.

During the non peak times I don't even use FP.

But, if the line dynamics change the way I think they will, the additional FP+ will be a great perk:

You mention that running all over the park to collect fastpasses is a waste of time, and with FP+ people will be able to do more in less time.

Two things there.

1. Running all over the park and killing time for my next FP is what keeps me in the parks. If I burned my three FP+ early, I am not staying to fight crowds in Standby. I think this turns all parks into a half day park. A relaxing half day, but what do I do now? Go to SeaWorld?

2. What is the greatest barrier for people to get a TSMM fast pass? Getting up early and doing the the running with bulls. But, 10,000 people a day do it, because all those FP are gone before noon. Most of those are different people each day, I don't think there is a lot of multiple visits to this park on 5 day stays.

It doesn't take 100% of the people to want headliners, it only takes about 40% at DHS, and think of all the people who know about FP, but don't want to go to the park at 9:00 am.

If the barrier is removed, a lot more people will book TSMM in advance. But you don't need all, just 9000-10000. The same thing is true for Peter Pan. Approximately 7000-8000 FP slots a day available, 70,000 in the park during peak time. It only takes 10% of the patrons to book that ride up in advance.

If Disney holds back a percentage for same day use, then that creates a WDW wide rush to get to the parks early to grab the same day FP, and that puts everything back to the beginning negating the benefit of booking from the room.

I don't see how FP distribution can exceed 80%. The closer to 100% makes the FP line simply a standby line. There would be no benefit for having a FP.

I also see standby for the big rides going down slightly, if Disney is successful in getting them out of Splash and riding Its A Small World and Pirates of the Caribbean. But the drawback is that those short lines become longer. For example, last June maelstrom didn't the FP line open, the standby line moved quickly. No need for FP. But other times I have been there and a steady stream of FP slowed the standby down to a crawl. So now, I won't ride it without a FP if it is in service. Pirates could end up that way. Living with Land could be that way.

If that is the case, then more FP+ are needed. And I will pay deluxe to get them. I hope my DVC gets me additional passes, because I can see a scenario, where we wouldn't - same argument as free dining.

 

[WisconsinDad]

With all due respect, I think you're missing the forest for the trees when it comes to how this is going to play out. The current Fastpass system couldn't be simpler. And it's a very big time saver for everyone who chooses to participate. Yet THOUSANDS of guests each day are CHOOSING not to participate.

I'm sure there are many guests that choose not to participate in the existing FP but I know from experience that there are also many guests that don't participate because they don't know how it works or don't know that there isn't an additional cost to use it.

There were more than one occasions on our last trip where we zipped through the FP line and overheard kids in the standby line ask their parents why we were able to move through so much faster and their parents said it was because they didn't purchase those types of tickets.

Because FP+ is being communicated out to guests prior to their stays (I'm assuming they'll continue to do this after testing is complete) we may see more guesting using FP+ than traditional FP. It's hard to say though. I think it's kind of like ADR's. I think many folks that don't book their ADR's ahead of time don't do it because they don't want to; I think they just don't know they need to. FP+ may end up being the same way depending on how well Disney communicates the process to them.

 

[tjkraz]

I'm sure there are many guests that choose not to participate in the existing FP but I know from experience that there are also many guests that don't participate because they don't know how it works or don't know that there isn't an additional cost to use it.

There were more than one occasions on our last trip where we zipped through the FP line and overheard kids in the standby line ask their parents why we were able to move through so much faster and their parents said it was because they didn't purchase those types of tickets.

We are in complete agreement here. With that said, my main points are:

1) Do we really believe that FP+ usage is going to be dramatically higher? Again, you've got the current simple-as-can-be swipe card system vs bracelets/smartphones/MDE.com/advance registrations (which I agree optional.)

Most of us here are viewing FastPass as veterans of the parks. Many plan meals 6 months in advance and have detailed spreadsheets of their day attraction-by-attraction.

Meanwhile there are thousands of guests who arrive for the day with no advance planning, no knowledge of FastPass, no gameplan for riding attractions. While advance planning is not necessary with FP+ the entire system is far more complicated than legacy FP for the uneducated guest.

Personally I will have no problem with FP or FP+. But when I consider people like my parents, father-in-law, neighbors or coworkers being dropped in the middle of WDW for a day trip, they will have no understanding of the system and no patience for rubber bracelets and touch screens.

2) And with that said, the main point I'm trying to drive home is that any projections of FP+ capacity are fundamentally flawed with no access to hard data on guest usage.

The third sentence of bcrook's post reads: "Total FP+ needed per park per day based on the idea of 1 e-ticket FP+ and 2 other rides."

Then it uses annual attendance figures to project average daily usage, assuming that every guest gets those three FPs each day.

What it fails to take into account are:

1) Guests who will ride zero or very few attractions.
2) Guests who will take (reserve) a FastPass and then not use it. That number gives Disney the ability to inflate FP issuance since some will always go unredeemed.
3) Guests who simply will not use FP or FP+ no matter what.
4) In the case of FP+, guests who are hopping from another park and thus do not get any ride reservations in the second park.

Every one of those factors chips away at the number of reservations required to satisfy the actual group of FP+ users...which will be far smaller than the daily admission average.

Meanwhile the grouping of attractions further limits which attractions I can experience in a given day. And the addition of new FP experiences to each park adds more capacity to the whole system.

I really don't see how FP is going from a system where I can reasonably--without any abuse or subterfuge--get 4-6 tickets per day for "E" and "D" ticket attractions, to one where its maxed out with me only getting one "E" ticket reservation and two lesser attractions.

Because FP+ is being communicated out to guests prior to their stays (I'm assuming they'll continue to do this after testing is complete) we may see more guesting using FP+ than traditional FP. It's hard to say though.

That's all well and good for Disney hotel guests...the most educated group. But again, thousands of guests daily who just drive up and pay their $95 for one day at the Magic Kingdom or Epcot. They won't understand FP+ and many of them won't have the tolerance to stand in more lines or even be accosted by a helpful Cast Member who they perceive is just trying to sell them something else.

I think it's kind of like ADR's. I think many folks that don't book their ADR's ahead of time don't do it because they don't want to; I think they just don't know they need to. FP+ may end up being the same way depending on how well Disney communicates the process to them.

ADRs are a poor comparison because the capacity is so low. We're talking a few hundred parties per night dining at CRT or Le Cellier vs. attractions which can handle 10-30K per day. It doesn't take much to max-out ADRs at several locations.