Monorail Operating Costs and Reliability

I wonder if Disney might spin off their own hotels and let someone else manage them? Interesting to think about.

By the way back to the monorails, do those things routinely break down nowadays? Our MK day last week started off with a bang. The express monorail was down and we got to ride the ferry with a huge mob of rather disgruntled people. It didn't come back until the evening either.
That was actually discussed in a previous thread. And originally that's the thought disney was going to go they didn't want to manage the hotels. The contemporary and poly were supposed to be managed by the company that built them.

Yes they routinely break down. It's a problem. They also routinely run short hours due to the automation install.
 
Hmmm... obfuscate much?

You speak like a tenured professor of literature trying fill in for the calculus class. I'm really trying hard to fight through the PR - those absolutes you identify in your number list. The ones touting Disney as the best at some things that, quite frankly and objectively and from experience - they're far from even being considered middle of the pack.

I made no argument in the post you responded to. Check it again. I was making an experienced-based observation based on numbers and identifiable trends.

Countering with Pixie Dust absolutes that Disney is the best at *** insert whatever****, depending on which thread you are posting in..... DDL, we need more quantification than that

So, here's your chance, straight from your response: "They're sacrificing profit. It's okay to add on additional employees if the profit grows with it"

I'm having real trouble putting that absolute from you into a real world scenario where profit (a now thing) and payroll/pension liabilities (a now and future thing) can both live, grow, and be measured and managed on a 2 dimensional fiscal YTY reality while also managing long term liability.

Have at it.....
My father always said I could bloviate.

I submit that Disney's singular approach on shedding headcount is exactly why they are best suited for building new hotels. Other hotel operators would find their operations dragged down by a labor force Disney is already moving to eliminate. These savings in the millions of dollars are key incentive for Disney to construct these new properties. While it's true Disney would just receive licensing or lease payments on the hotels operating on property, the negative results would trickle down the line ultimately resulting in lost profit. Why would Disney outsource a process that they could do better themselves (here's the key) without effecting their other businesses? If Disney was going to have to choose to operate hotels or theme parks, their cost benefit would obviously be theme parks. However with this efficiency improvements in place, combined with their large workforce deployment it would not effect theme parks at all.

The only real negative effect on Parks I can think of that is compelling would be loss in Cap Ex. I'm one to believe that the theme parks likely have higher margins then hotels, meaning they'd be subsidizing the expensive capital heavy process of building new hotels. This effect could be offset by increased synergies of suppliers, contractors, and increased in foot traffic to Parks due to the Resort opening.

This brings me to your white collar arguments. My feelings are there's a critical mass point for those hotel operations staff. IT, accounting, and HR positions would have to be added, however many of the current employees work could undercut the necessity for those increases. For example if they needed 10 accountants after opening hotel A, with the opening of hotel B they only needed to add on an additional 8 for a total of 18. This is another reason why Disney would likely be more efficient at building out hotel operations. Whereas outsourced hotel would need 10 additional accountants, Disney would only need to add 8. Also, this positive effect falls down the line raising margins on the other properties as well.

Disney is big. Really big. They have the ability to negotiate down prices of food, shampoos, cleaning supplies, etc. saving millions. Another example of the home field advantage. This could be countered by enlisting a company such as Marriott that is specially optimized to handle flexible hotel operations. I'm just not convinced they have the Orlando local clout to make demands on suppliers and contractors in the same magnitude as Disney.

For all the reasons above, I feel like Disney is a more efficient hotel operator on property.

You could vehemently argue there's inherent risk owning real estate like hotels. Allowing 3rd parties to have access means you lower exposure to economic contractions. There's also the most compelling argument that you've made which is they'll not receive a high enough return on investment to justify the heavy up front costs/labor. However several different brands have jumped at the chance of building on property. This indicates there's significant upside potential. Disney's operations structure, technologies, and supply chain make it the most compelling to deploy additional rooms.

Finally, one other argument that could be made is Disney isn't much of a hotel operator. They're first and foremost a theme park/large venue management company. Disney can't do everything themselves, and the operations side is better left to 3rd parties who specialize in their role. This to me seems increasingly hard to accept. Disney is not the best "traditional" hotel operator. If you wanted to stay your last night at Grand Floridian or the best Hilton, I think most would (or should. full disclosure I'm on the line) choose Hilton. Why? Because they're an amazing hotel operator. Disney however is a great Resort operator. Taking the complete picture in. DME, My Magic, Disney Transport, Disney Springs, Disney Cruise Line, Water Parks, and PhotoPass coupled with the theme parks and hotels make a great package.

Something only Disney can do. This arrangement also makes for the greatest profit maximization...
 
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Everyone is entitled to your opinion...and your thoughts are well articulated

But in this case they are incorrect. This is not my "opinion"...it's my experience in this business talking. It's not even debatable.

You are attempting to build a counter argument with evidence that doesn't quite apply. Right stadium, wrong section.

As stated - pop century was halted because they realized that it would cannibalize all stars (that is a fact... It's not debatable...it's not different if you turn the mirror slightly). So they opened the first half a couple years late ( 2...if in recall). The "legendary years" were mothballed because they couldn't support them.

Now...about 7 years later...they finished them with a unique circumstance of the "cheaper" combo rooms. It's a developing niche that now has become a travel standard. A scenario like that may lead to new development... If a new angle arrives.

The other of the last hotels was DAK lodge. Which opened in April of 2001 with the second highest rack rate...more than the poly.

In a few months... With 40% occupancy ( pre 9/2001... Which is a common misconception)... They lower the rates and made the standards the same as wilderness... About $150 or so at the time in value...to prop up the numbers. Then they converted a large block to DVC at the first chance they got... Roughly 5 years later.

What is my point? That even those two hotels were not really necessary...and the demand hasn't risen greatly since. Eisner forced them... The rumor was...and their histories confirmed that. It was part of his policy to try and get animal kingdom on more solid ground... A plan that died with stockholder revolts in 03 and 04.

They have done nothing... Other than DVC and retrofit DVC since...going on 15 years.

Where is this need you speak of? If there were the demand, the profit potential in parks, or the profit potential in the hotels themselves... Would you doubt that they'd be built?

They been to busy to build overprice rooms and ticket generators? That can't be if they are such money makers, can it?

What should that tell you?
...
....

No?
Ok - an 83% or so occupancy rate across the board...so build some more and draw that down into the 70s, huh?

Well lets use the next "move" that is a strong possibility - in the hypothetical - to see what we can figure out...

A shocking...I still can't believe it... Rumor of a low 60s% occupancy at wilderness lodge...

Huh? Wha? Is up? Que?

That rate means head should ROLL. (Quietly... With pixie dust... Of course)

Not good enough - an empty room is cost without operating expense return and the potential of profit in the parks...
The reason is obvious... They've overpriced it heavily ($350 starting is appalling and theirs no going back)

So the "white knight" will ride in...and save it. Like it did DAK and Disney institute... And like it once propped up Wildeness, beach, and contemporary and is currently doing over at poly and the GF...

Again...where is the need?

So you invest some land and groundwork cost for Marriott to build over western way...and they foot the rest.

But wait - that can't work for disney because they can't send bands and use the Mickey shuttle and allow early entry...so that captive audience on the far side of the property will not go to EPCOT and will head to splendid china down on 192 right?


Or maybe... If that were even a problem ( it won't be)... You make them "official" or "preferred" and extend magical express...maybe send them a 45 cent Chinese band...provide Disney onsite transportation...
Poof... Your pumpkin just turned back into a carriage...

And if people flock to those instead of allstar or Caribbean... What will they do?
Wait... Because it won't happen. Because those that go to wdw hotels are being so thoroughly overcharged that Disney knows its NOT the hotel they're paying for...it's the D.
They're already caught...the game was over before it started.

There just isn't much of an argument here...I hope that idea will start to leach into the toosoil
Good post. I agree with much of it. I'll respond in detail tomorrow.
 
If it's so bad why do they keep allowing hotels to pop up on property obviously disney doesn't want their own hotels there for some reason. If Disney didn't want marriot or four seasons they didn't have to let them but they did. Disney doesn't want brand new hotels they only want DVC.
2 small Marriotts and a hotel that (let's face it) is geared to a different segment. This is not a real pulse on what they want. Unless what you're saying they wanted to fill up their existing inventory. They're only now accomplishing that.
 

Just my observation on Disney ditching the monorail. I don't see it happening, at least for sometime.

If the rumor is true that Poly will eventually have 1br suites, then DVD will be selling Poly points for at least the next 6 years. If not and the three longhouses and bungalows are the only DVC built, they'll still be selling points for the next three years.

They'll not get $165/point for a monorail resort with no monorail.

I just bought at Poly. It was my wife's idea and her money. I just asked her, as I was reading this, if she'd have wanted to buy at Poly if she knew the monorail was going away.

Her response: "No way!"

Walking to TTC and taking the monorail to MK or EPCOT is her first reason for buying. That's anecdotal but I think a fair argument for keeping the monorail.

Now. Add two more years to the equation. Disney can't even plan to cut the rail until DVC sells out at Poly because rumors will precede reality by 18months to 2 years.

If, 18 months before Poly sells out, the rumors start to leak out about the monorails closing, the resale market for Poly will bring down new sales. Yes yes DVC buyers are impulse buyers, but still. You can't kill the DVC resale market at the monorail resorts without making serious waves.

Poly sellout plus two years. By then, you get to 50th Anniv.

The monorails will run through at least 2021.
 
Take a look at the Swan and Dolphin - that's the resort future.

Except that most things you hear from inside Disney are that they are not happy with the arrangement (or the look of the hotel). While Disney may like the partnership model, they don't have enough control to make it what they want. Swan and Dolphin was originally intended to be a mid-priced hotel, but at times, operates at the budget price level, and (Disney believes) is taking residents out of Disney managed properties. The agreement with Four Seasons is different because of what they learned from Swan and Dolphin. I would be curious to know if Disney is maintaining some level of price control with the Four Seasons. That is one of their complaints about Swan, is that Swan will drop prices below Disney rates to get people to book rooms, and Disney isn't pleased with that practice. It isn't against their agreement, so they learned and moved forward.

From a business perspective, it comes down to Disney's expectations of profits. Disney seems to expect a 30%+ profit margin on everything they do. Some of these hotels do not maintain that level of profit, and are in fact much lower. If Disney can dictate that Four Seasons maintain a price level equal to (or above) Disney's pricing for a deluxe resort, then that would make Disney happier since they wouldn't be undercut on their own property.
 
Except that most things you hear from inside Disney are that they are not happy with the arrangement (or the look of the hotel). While Disney may like the partnership model, they don't have enough control to make it what they want. Swan and Dolphin was originally intended to be a mid-priced hotel, but at times, operates at the budget price level, and (Disney believes) is taking residents out of Disney managed properties. The agreement with Four Seasons is different because of what they learned from Swan and Dolphin. I would be curious to know if Disney is maintaining some level of price control with the Four Seasons. That is one of their complaints about Swan, is that Swan will drop prices below Disney rates to get people to book rooms, and Disney isn't pleased with that practice. It isn't against their agreement, so they learned and moved forward.

From a business perspective, it comes down to Disney's expectations of profits. Disney seems to expect a 30%+ profit margin on everything they do. Some of these hotels do not maintain that level of profit, and are in fact much lower. If Disney can dictate that Four Seasons maintain a price level equal to (or above) Disney's pricing for a deluxe resort, then that would make Disney happier since they wouldn't be undercut on their own property.
The swan and dolphin have deluxe amenities for moderate prices. I have stayed at the dolphin. Michael Eisner is the one that brought them into play he waned them. He was also a huge fan of the now law Michael Graves. Graves also built the team disney building in Orlando and the iconic main offices in Burbank. The four seasons tends to have similar prices to the GF but the amenities at the resort may be harder to compare. Like Lockedout has said with Disney you pay for D and that's it.
 
2 small Marriotts and a hotel that (let's face it) is geared to a different segment. This is not a real pulse on what they want. Unless what you're saying they wanted to fill up their existing inventory. They're only now accomplishing that.
I don't disgree but if disney didn't want to allow them in they didn't have too.
 
As stated - pop century was halted because they realized that it would cannibalize all stars (that is a fact... It's not debatable...it's not different if you turn the mirror slightly). So they opened the first half a couple years late ( 2...if in recall). The "legendary years" were mothballed because they couldn't support them.

Now...about 7 years later...they finished them with a unique circumstance of the "cheaper" combo rooms. It's a developing niche that now has become a travel standard. A scenario like that may lead to new development... If a new angle arrives.


Sorry. Pop was finished but never opened for several reasons, and it had noting to do with cannibalizing the All Stars. Pop was scheduled to open, and be completed. However after 911, Pop was finished per the contract on Phase 1, but never opened because WDW couldn't get anyone to the hotels. At the same time, Port Orleans/Dixie Landings (as it was then called) shuttered the Dixie Landings side of the resort. Carribean Beach had large areas un booked and several other resorts had their capacity reduced deliberately in some way shape or form to help weather the lack of people on property. The cruise line was practically begging for people to board the ships. Coronado Springs had large areas that were un booked and basically shuttered. A new class of DCL ships was put back on the shelf.(This was verified by Joe Lansicero a VP of design on the Disney Fantasy Maiden in a public forum) If I had to guess, WDW reduced its available rooms on property deliberately by probably 1/3 to help weather the economic storm post 911.
 
I wonder if Disney might spin off their own hotels and let someone else manage them? Interesting to think about.

By the way back to the monorails, do those things routinely break down nowadays? Our MK day last week started off with a bang. The express monorail was down and we got to ride the ferry with a huge mob of rather disgruntled people. It didn't come back until the evening either.

I have nothing to prove this... But I've thought since my time at wdw resorts that they will do EXACTLY that. Offload the employee and benefit expense to an industry operator (Marriott, Starwood, and holiday inn come to mind)

And that was during eisners tenure...who liked parks, capital construction and expansion, and wdw in particular. The current tanning bed suits like NONE of those things from all Indications.

As far as the monorail... Those trains are old...much older than any set in Disneylands history and they have to go farther, with more people, in a much more harsh environment. And the beams are old now as well in swamp gas...
They can rip out the carpets and put automated controls all they want...but that is lipstick on the pig.
And the computers are 100% because OSHA forced their hand. They can't take that kind of legal or PR hit.
 
The swan and dolphin have deluxe amenities for moderate prices. I have stayed at the dolphin. Michael Eisner is the one that brought them into play he waned them. He was also a huge fan of the now law Michael Graves. Graves also built the team disney building in Orlando and the iconic main offices in Burbank. The four seasons tends to have similar prices to the GF but the amenities at the resort may be harder to compare. Like Lockedout has said with Disney you pay for D and that's it.
Not true. Micheal Eisner was forced to build them out per a contract they had signed earlier. It's true he finalized the design of the buildings, they're his in that respect. Aside from that, Disney didn't have a say.
 
Sorry. Pop was finished but never opened for several reasons, and it had noting to do with cannibalizing the All Stars. Pop was scheduled to open, and be completed. However after 911, Pop was finished per the contract on Phase 1, but never opened because WDW couldn't get anyone to the hotels. At the same time, Port Orleans/Dixie Landings (as it was then called) shuttered the Dixie Landings side of the resort. Carribean Beach had large areas un booked and several other resorts had their capacity reduced deliberately in some way shape or form to help weather the lack of people on property. The cruise line was practically begging for people to board the ships. Coronado Springs had large areas that were un booked and basically shuttered. A new class of DCL ships was put back on the shelf.(This was verified by Joe Lansicero a VP of design on the Disney Fantasy Maiden in a public forum) If I had to guess, WDW reduced its available rooms on property deliberately by probably 1/3 to help weather the economic storm post 911.

Ok... Now we got something.

WDW's booking were significantly down following the end of the millennial celebration in EARLY 2001...and those places you mention (I may have been involved in shuttering some of which you say) were in "low occ" in the spring and even summer of 2001. Long before people started "hating freedom"

Did that cause massive trouble to travel and wdw? Of course. But that was not the genesis of the pop century problem. Their internal numbers saw the problems.

As I stated...DAK lodge... Showed the cracks in the resort system. As it opened in April 2001.

Disney also "admitted" that the problem predates 9/11/01...
They just dismantled it. The 100 years of magic was a rushed Hail Mary to maintain the steam/momentum from 2000. It never made sense from a "celebration" standpoint...it was an elaborate stopgap. And then Eisner went down...which was a mix of many things...

But lack of hotel space in orange and Osceola counties was never one of them.

Also, port was shuttered with a purpose...it had a full rehab when the occupancy allowed it.
In late 2002 Caribbean had the same.
They used the loss/ downshift of travel as best they could...but the policies were never formed with the idea that wdw would not rebound/return...perhaps possibly altered then towards the "DVC only" policy we see now.

And that still is the smart approach and why we will see no new Disney hotels.

Real estate bubble cost them... There are other black hole bubbles inflating as i type this...

What's the course?
DVC lockins and third parties leased operators.
 
Not true. Micheal Eisner was forced to build them out per a contract they had signed earlier. It's true he finalized the design of the buildings, they're his in that respect. Aside from that, Disney didn't have a say.

That's true...but your not digging deep enough...

Why did Eisner/ wells sign the agreements with tischman?

Because...they wanted a third party operator to take the expenses off their hands in favor of fees and bodies brought to the gates.

It's the exact same concept we are debating now. Eisner was an egomaniac... And a control freak... And that's ultimately why they changed course.

But look at the context: they signed that in 85/86 when the only hotels in the operation were Disney inn, poly, contemp, and the campground...

A localized, small operation. And yet they wanted to dump the operation of future hotels....

If you're asking yourself how that could be if there's profit to be made in running your own wdw hotels?...you should be right about now...
 
Ok... Now we got something.

WDW's booking were significantly down following the end of the millennial celebration in EARLY 2001...and those places you mention (I may have been involved in shuttering some of which you say) were in "low occ" in the spring and even summer of 2001. Long before people started "hating freedom"

Did that cause massive trouble to travel and wdw? Of course. But that was not the genesis of the pop century problem. Their internal numbers saw the problems.

As I stated...DAK lodge... Showed the cracks in the resort system. As it opened in April 2001.

Disney also "admitted" that the problem predates 9/11/01...
They just dismantled it. The 100 years of magic was a rushed Hail Mary to maintain the steam/momentum from 2000. It never made sense from a "celebration" standpoint...it was an elaborate stopgap. And then Eisner went down...which was a mix of many things...

But lack of hotel space in orange and Osceola counties was never one of them.

Also, port was shuttered with a purpose...it had a full rehab when the occupancy allowed it.
In late 2002 Caribbean had the same.
They used the loss/ downshift of travel as best they could...but the policies were never formed with the idea that wdw would not rebound/return...perhaps possibly altered then towards the "DVC only" policy we see now.

And that still is the smart approach and why we will see no new Disney hotels.

Real estate bubble cost them... There are other black hole bubbles inflating as i type this...

What's the course?
DVC lockins and third parties leased operators.


Ive heard any number of rumors on why the resorts were shuttered. Which ones were true? I don't know. I know from talking to some of the Imagineers for certain things that they were very stuck on its their way or no way, and took a lot of convincing otherwise. (First hand experience). some were really good and open and others looked down on you as a lowly operator. I got a compliment from my manager, during a meeting because he thought I was going to tell a certain Imagineer on where to go in no uncertain terms because she was so condescending. Truth is I was 1 more comment from it.

Its entirely possible that occ was down prior to 911.
What I do know is that Eisner towards the end wasn't exactly helping the situation. Saw him a few times on property for 1 reason or another, and he never really struck me as the team type player. At least towards the end of his reign. I will give him he did good in getting Disney as a whole out of the danger of a hostile take over and bringing it back to the front and a dominate player. The few times I saw him, he looked very disheveled, and never wore a name tag, and never had that cheery look like some other CEOs I can think of. He always seemed sullen, like he jut woke up and like he wanted to be anywhere but where he was.

I think Disney is going to ride the DVC as far as they can, and then go from there. What that entails is anyones guess especially since Bob Iger ony has a few more years in office. His replacement could have radical different ideas.
 
I heard the stories from working in management at resorts and revenue and finance at team Disney...

Rumors come from all over the place ;)
 
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His replacement could have radical different ideas.

Unless they go off the grid and find somebody else with a pulse...I think you'll get "no ideas"

Eisner...my take...needed a foil and was in the same job too long.

Just like a stock trader used to only last 10 years and a president ages at 3x the rate while in office - you can't run one of these mega companies for 20 years. It's physically impossible.

Eisner's big flaw...and roy E's major problem with him...is that he showed no interest in acquiring or retaining capable successors...

He also failed to adjust to web technology and business fast enough.

He had a massive heart attack around age 50...and if he had died at somepoint then or thereafter...it would have caused catastrophic damage to the Disney company in the malaise that would have followed.

You know who else has been there too long?
 
[QUOTE="lockedoutlogic, post: 53318507, member: 14765
And the computers are 100% because OSHA forced their hand. They can't take that kind of legal or PR hit.[/QUOTE]

Please provide a source or two to substantiate this claim. I continue to hear it, but without anything to back up the assertion.
 
Unless they go off the grid and find somebody else with a pulse...I think you'll get "no ideas"

Eisner...my take...needed a foil and was in the same job too long.

Just like a stock trader used to only last 10 years and a president ages at 3x the rate while in office - you can't run one of these mega companies for 20 years. It's physically impossible.

Eisner's big flaw...and roy E's major problem with him...is that he showed no interest in acquiring or retaining capable successors...

He also failed to adjust to web technology and business fast enough.

He had a massive heart attack around age 50...and if he had died at somepoint then or thereafter...it would have caused catastrophic damage to the Disney company in the malaise that would have followed.

You know who else has been there too long?

I agree. I saw something recently, as in the last year that 2 people were being groomed as Igers successor, for lack of a better term. From what I remember , neither was living up to expectations. Which is why he is staying for 2 more years I think. I don't remember all of the details other then he was staying 2 more years by the boards request.

One of the things Ive learned from working for Disney and for my grandparents business, you as a head may not need to know every single thing that goes on, or every single aspect of the business as long as you have capable leaders under you, that you trust and know there jobs, that can fill in in a pinch and not miss a beat, while you learn. You also need to know your limits, and that your idea, may not always be the best idea, and that you need to be able to step back and say this isn't working how do we fix it. The people under you can be your best friends or your worst enemy. Ive seen way too many newly promoted supervisors ands managers that needed to be asked if their mothers had any children that lived, because they immediately came in with the know it all attitude. Ive seen at least one that was placed in tears on a regular basis.
 
[QUOTE="lockedoutlogic, post: 53318507, member: 14765
And the computers are 100% because OSHA forced their hand. They can't take that kind of legal or PR hit.

Please provide a source or two to substantiate this claim. I continue to hear it, but without anything to back up the assertion.[/QUOTE]
It makes sense, especially after the accident.
 












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