Monorail Expansion Rumors????

[jctwizzer]

Dear Lord!

Where did you get your numbers; and what experience do you have in mass transit issues---McDonalds doesn't count......thanks

 

[Lord Fantasius]

The numbers are from the Austin Chronicle who did a report to determine if a monorail would be feasible for them. The no's can be verified from public documents available for review of Las Vegas's records - budgets, costs, etc., you don't think the Las Vegas community wasn't interested in knowing what it was costing them to build the monorail, do you? There are also quite extensive details in both of Las Vegas's newspapers which are available online.

I have a no. of close friends in the construction business (inc. contractors and subcontractors), a couple in mass transit construction (roadbeds, bridges, etc.) and one that works as a surveyer for public projects (roads, etc.); however, it shouldn't really matter if "I know" how to build a mass-transit system myself, I can read reports and if Las Vegas, or whatever city, says it cost them such-and-such to build so many miles of monorail, and so many engineers say it costs such-and-such, do I really need to have the degree myself? Because of the media and public records request in this country, most cities aren't going to try to say it cost substantially more or less than a public works project actually did after the fact.

It's reinforced poured concrete, sheesh, we're not inventing a new technology here! I would be interested in knowing where WillCAD got his $1 million / foot estimate. From Eisner?

what experience do you have in mass transit issues---McDonalds doesn't count

I've ridden them for most of my life??? Yeah, funny, I'm not that big on McDonalds...now if you were to say the local pizza parlour, then...

Anyways, it was a fun exercize; I was just trying to dispel the notion that it would be absurdly, obscenely expensive to build another monorail loop since "everybody" seems to have taken that for granted or is currently under that impression. Disney Corporate, like any other corporation these days unfortunately, will tell you deliberately what they want you to hear...kind of like most governments. If that one divison I mentioned earlier doesn't want it to happen, they will put out any no's to justify their decision; likewise, it is up to those that still have a dream of the glory days of Disney, to push back just a little bit every once in awhile to let them know we're still out there.

Truthfully, I'm not sure if Disney would have been that easy to work with, either, and I'm sure his brother had to wrangle him to keep costs down as they were to keep from going completely bankrupt. The only reason they went public to begin with was because they needed the money to build his vision...guess I'd much rather have WDW under a public co. rather than no WDW ar all!

-R

 

[zcasper]

There are a couple of issues that haven't been brought up in this conversation.

First of all, I believe Disney attempted to build on the land between the TTC and the Contemporary. The land was found to be too unstable to support a major structure like the resort they were planning (Venetian). This would not significantly change the previous analysis, but I thought I would point it out.

The second thing that must be figured into these feasibility is the reduction in the buses. Disney has around 700 buses priced around $75,000 - most of which are really showing their age. That's a $52.5 million investment every 10 years (this is a guess) not including maintenance (which has to be expensive considering many of the buses have over 1 million miles).

I do not expect Disney to totally get away from buses - they are too versatile. I do believe Disney has a major transportation problem brewing. Disney needs to take leadership and design, manage, or contract out the development of a transportation master plan that is realistic and long term.

How do these issues change the equation?

Zach

 

[Lewisc]

Interesting analysis. AKL and WL were built to be somewhere in between a moderate and deluxe. The standard rooms are smaller and the hotels don't have convention facilities.

A better comparison is with the EPCOT resorts. BWI is about $10 a night cheaper than the monorail resorts. The rooms are slightly smaller. If anything I'd call it a MK fee NOT a monorail fee. Even if you don't have a MK view from your room you still have it from the common areas. People chose hotels like WL and AKL because they're less expensive. Increasing the rates might just drive people to other properities on and offsite. Not sure how potential increase in the S/D room rates does anything for Disney.

Assuming an 80% occupancy year round is hardly conservative. If Disney thought they could fill that many additional deluxe hotel rooms they'd be building them instead of POP.

I did read some speculation about Disney building a parking garage like Universal by DTD. Use light rail to connect it to the theme parks. Give the guests a final chance to empty their wallets on their way out. Part of this rumor was to build a new resort at the present TTC. The existing parking lot would be move S.

I'm glad some of you (and we'll include Eisner and friends as well) weren't on Disney's development team when he was designing and building Disney World over 30 years ago. I'm sure he was told numerous times the problems with building a monorail was back then (especially since they had to develop the trains, track, and almost all of the techonology). I'm also tired of hearing why everything needs a cost efficiency study to validate its purpose these days (though, I'll let that discusion for another day...). How many kids have dreamed larger dreams just because of watching that monorail? Probably millions to this day! Yeah, it breaks down a bit and the audio is usually off, but riding on one is truly more "magical" than a bus...even if it does take longer. If you don't like it, don't stay at a monorail resort; otherwise, there's no requirement you have to take it, you can always walk from the CR and take a boat from GR and Poly.

Anyways, as part accountant, part auditor/examiner, part cost analysis specialist, part engineer-wanna-be, and part Disney geek, if you really want a feasibility study how about this -

Monorail resorts typically charge a premium for just the convenience and accessibility of being on the monorail loop. Even though the AKL and WL are as deluxe as the CR, GF, and Poly, the difference in room rates for the same type room ranges anywhere from $50 - $75. While, notably, the greatest portion of this is because of the properties view of the MK, even those rooms not facing the MK still charge more than their counterparts at the other deluxe hotels. As such, we can conservatively estimate a $20/night/room "monorail access fee" for any resort directly linked to a monorail.

While I would love to see the MK express and EPCOT express monorail loops linked to create one giant figure-eight MK/TTC/EPCOT express monorail circuit, my proposal doesn't require this connection (though it would alleviate a no. of problems). The proposal does, however, require three new resorts to be built (2 deluxe and 1 premium moderate - moderate ammenities, but connected to the monorail) along with the requisite no. of stations.

For starters, I would build a super deluxe resort on the point north of the TTC facing the lagoon and MK and than another deluxe resort on the east side of the EPCOT loop inbetween the TTC and EPCOT station. I would then build a Monorail transfer station at where the current EPCOT line bends to head east.

From this transfer station I would build a third monorail loop that connects the new transfer station with a station at the Boardwalk/Swan/Dolphin/EPCOT-area resorts, another at MGM studios, swings west and connects to a single station between AK and AKL, then heads north to the open area where a new theme park/resort area could be built (Colonial Village, etc.), then back east to the transfer station. Generally, any more than 4 or 5 stops for a circuit significantly decreases its efficiency.

According to previous calculations, this loop would be about 8 or 9 miles long (a little more than twice the length of track for the EPCOT loop) and with newer technology and open land could probably be built for a little less than $700 million, as previously posted. (However, I would build it as a double track since building two tracks side-by-side using the same pylons barely raises the overall cost by 20%)

Now about paying for this...

In addition to the 2722 rooms in the MK resorts that are already paying the monorail access fee (MAF), Disney's accountants could then charge and expense AKL's 1293 rooms each the $20 MAF, a $15 MAF for each of the EPCOT/Boardwalk-area's 1569 rooms since they are already paying an EPCOT accessibility fee, and a $10 MAF for the Swan/Dolphin's 1500 combined rooms (give them a little break as they are already paying a $10 resort fee). In addition, I'm estimating a combined 3000 rooms at $20 MAF for the new resorts to be built with each having a station on one of the lines.

With a conservative estimate that the resorts maintain an average of 80% occupancy for 360 days out of the year, combining all the rooms' MAF generates a total $51.5 million dollars just for monorail accessibility each year. Even if no other growth was planned over a lifespan of only 40 years, the total dollars generated with monorail accessibility is just about $2.1 billion! O.k., that's over the next 40 years...the "present value," or what $2.1 billion dollars over the next 40 years is equal to in today's dollar, comes to just under $950 million using an inflation rate of 4.5%.

Can we justify it now????

-R

 

[Lewisc]

Much of WDW is basically swamp land. It's not a simple as just pouring concrete. I'm not so sure $1 million /foot is accurate. Most of the more recent rumors, prior to 9-11, involved more light rail than monorail.

Currently you have 3 boat docks and 5 bus stops for the EPCOT resorts. Replacing it with one monorail stop would result in guests having to walk farther.

It's reinforced poured concrete, sheesh, we're not inventing a new technology here! I would be interested in knowing where WillCAD got his $1 million / foot estimate. From Eisner?

-R

 

[seashoreCM]

Disney has around 700 buses priced around $75,000 - most of which are really showing their age. That's a $52.5 million investment every 10 years (this is a guess) not including maintenance (which has to be expensive considering many of the buses have over 1 million miles).

I do believe Disney has a major transportation problem brewing. Disney needs to take leadership and design, manage, or contract out the development of a transportation master plan that is realistic and long term.

Somehow I don't agree about a major transportation problem.

Highway long haul mileage is less wear and tear compared with stops and pulling to the curb for passenger pickups every block.

The only place where I see excessive traffic congestion is Downtown Disney.

 

[Chip 'n Dale Express]

The second thing that must be figured into these feasibility is the reduction in the buses. Disney has around 700 buses priced around $75,000 - most of which are really showing their age. That's a $52.5 million investment every 10 years (this is a guess) not including maintenance (which has to be expensive considering many of the buses have over 1 million miles).

Just to give you some more accurate figures:

We recently retired around 35 of our older (1980-1985) buses.

We still have:
35 RTS buses, bought used, and rebuilt in 1998.
114 RTS buses, ranging from 1988 to 1994 model years.
71 Nova buses, ranging from 2000 to 2002 model years.
45 Gillig buses, 2004 model year. Another order has been rumored.
Total active fleet: Around 265, down from a high of around 300.

Both the Novas and the Gilligs are leased. However, retail purchase price is in the vicinity of $275,000 to $300,000, give or take.

In regards to the RTS buses... they are very well kept, and most people have no clue how old they really are. Disney maintains them very well, both mechanically, and cosmetically. Many of the buses have recently recieved freshened interiors, and new paint jobs on the outside. Yes, some buses still have the brown colored interior scheme, but aside from that, they're in just as good a condition as the purple seated buses.

Maintenance costs are probably higher than they could be, but that's mostly because Disney works hard to keep the buses in great shape. They replace things that might not need replacing right away, but it's a good idea to. A heavy duty transit bus (such as the RTS) typically has a life span of 25+ years, or over 2 million miles. Because of how Disney takes care of its buses, our buses last longer. In fact, most of the buses that got retired were still in great shape.

 

[Disneyjosh229]

Im not sure disney wants to take on such a big project!