Not sure if I can help much but I'll give it a whiz

....yep, there are different buses/routes for different hotels but since I haven't been to the VWL I couldn't say for sure how long that ride will take.
When we used the ME we landed at 10AM and it took about 3 hours to get to the hotel on Disney.
How it worked for us was we got off the plane then walked to the ME check in desk, got through that line, then depending on hotel, park etc. they put you in another line to wait for the bus.
Once we got on the bus it was another 30 minutes till we left the airport then it was about another 30 minute ride to the hotel. We were are All Stars Movies.
With luggage, just wanted to say when using ME for that make sure you have enough clothes etc. with you for a whole day. Your luggage will trail you to the hotel. Ours took 8 hours to reach us.
The ME information Disney sends tell you about 3 hours from getting in but since your luggage doesn't travel with you once off the plane it can depend on the other flights, if there are delays and how long it takes for the truck to get full before it heads back to Disney to start dropping off the luggage. So there are a few variables there.
You don't have to check your luggage with ME. Just don't use their tags and claim your bags as normal and they can be loaded under the ME bus when you get on.
We're actually thinking of getting a car service (if we can find a good one)this time cause we are getting in about 9:30PM and probably would not get our luggage till the AM if we used ME and that just won't work.
That was our experience other then the luggage it wasn't too bad but we did feel like we wasted a lot of Disney time getting there.... course having kids asking every 5 mintues "why aren't we there yet" does seem to make things take a lot longer....lol