Marathon Weekend Weather - version 2011

[cewait]

OK, OK I know that a 15 day forecast can be a little more than the weather guru wetting his finger, point it up and then speaking. My brother the mayor also does the same thing for some issues. The actual observations as well as the models for a while have been saying Chuck you Farley to the typical warmer la nina weather pattern. Interestingly the weather pattern seems to have settled in on a normal to slightly cooler than normal pattern so far this winter. Now the Friday morning of the weekend is within the 15 day window.

As I have been watching the trends the weather forecasts have been influenced downward from the norms bouncing through the period between normal and slightly cooler as the days come and go. So here goes ROUND 1

Accuweather
5k Start 41F
Half Start – N/A
Full Start – N/A

Weatherforyou
5k Start 51F
Half Start 55F
Full Start N/A

Norms
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

More to come as the 15 day forecast starts to pick up the remainder of Marathon Weekend.

 

[rubato]

Thanks Coach. I've been looking at every forecast I can find. I know it's still too far out to be really sure, but I like to pack early. If the starts are in the 50s, I can get by with shorts, but I'm not sure about 40s. I guess we'll see as it gets closer.

 

[verticalchaos]

In your experience which of those two tend to be the closer to accurate?

 

[cewait]

At 15 days either could be right. The Accuweather forecast seems to be influenced by the front that passes earlier in the week. The other forecast has just defaulted back to something close to norm. The Weatherforyou forecast was actually below norm when I first saw it last night.

I would wager that both services will go back and forth over the next week to 10 days. Oce within 5-7 the variability tends to flatten out as all models tend to ali gn; that is unless you are looking for a forecst right on the edge of weather change.

 

[Tiger Lily 03]

We are definitely discussing how many suitcases we need and layers of clothing one can wear. Got all the toss aways ready, and will bring all varieties of run stuff. Just don't want to have to take sleeping bags that we wished we had this past January. Still hoping for a bit on the cooler side, but not as cold as past January or even our recent December trip thankyouverymuch!

 

[cewait]

We are definitely discussing how many suitcases we need and layers of clothing one can wear. Got all the toss aways ready, and will bring all varieties of run stuff. Just don't want to have to take sleeping bags that we wished we had this past January. Still hoping for a bit on the cooler side, but not as cold as past January or even our recent December trip thankyouverymuch!

You just reminded me that my stack of throw downs is gone from last year's fun! off to Good Will or WalMart

 

[FireDancer]

I forgot that I still have a box in the garage of stuff I haven't gotten around to sending to Goodwill yet. I will be grabbing some throw-aways out of there just in case.

I've got to admit though, I have almost no faith in the accuracy of a 5 day forecast let alone a 15 day so I'll be taking the predictions with a grain of salt.

 

[cewait]

Farmers and marathon runners have this in common; they both are affected by the weather. Neither can do much but accept what Mother nature is giving them, that is except talk about it. This morning's forecast. Don't fixate on the rain prediction from Accuweather... it will disappear and reappear a few times before a good solid forecast period gets here. Remember that January is in the middle of dry season for Florida.


Accuweather
5k Start 45F
Half Start 47F (Rain later in the day)
Full Start – N/A

Weatherforyou
5k Start 53F
Half Start 47F
Full Start N/A

Norms
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

 

[paxsarah]

Ooh, don't get my hopes up - I would love for it to be 47 at race start.

 

[cewait]

Merry Christmas! As typical when you watch the 15 day forecasts they tend to move back to normal every once in a while.

This AM we get a first look at Marathon morning.


Accuweather
5k Start 51F
Half Start 54F
Full Start – 53F

Weatherforyou
5k Start 47F
Half Start 55F
Full Start 49F

Norms
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

Don't get too jazzed about anything you see that you do not like, yet.

 

[Duanerice]

Merry Christmas Charles and fellow Wishers.

I just can't stop thinking about last year. It was so, so COLD! Not just at the start, but the entire run on both days. It was bad enough with a quick run on Friday, then the brutally cold half on Sat. Then we had all day Sat to think about how cold it would be on Sunday. Brrrr.

Here I am ready to leave POP on Sunday

Sunny and 72 here today!

enjoy,
Duane

 

[cewait]

Happy Boxing Day! As typical when you watch the 15 day forecasts they tend to move back a lot. Today one of the forecasts is, well, ugly with starting temps in the upper 50’s. Great for the spectators but really starting to push into the upper edge of good for the runners.



Accuweather
5k Start 54F – Hi 77F
Half Start 54F – Hi 78F
Full Start – 53F – Hi 76F

Weatherforyou
5k Start 61F – Hi 77F
Half Start 58F – Hi 75F
Full Start 60F – Hi 77F

Norms
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

The numbers will really start to be real in about a week.

 

[disneygirlinnj]

I refuse to believe that it can be 25 and snowing one year and then a high of 80 the very next... lol

 

[kenziesmom]

We'll be arriving on the 6th with daughter running Mickey mile on Friday and husband running half on on Saturday....I'll be cheering both on!!!

Good luck on the 7th! LSU vs the Aggies!!

Hook 'em!

 

[physicalt104]

Talking weather makes this, our first race, (albeit 5K), very REAL
I'll be checking in on a daily basis until we leave....
Thanks Coach!

 

[Disney G Dog]

Farmers and marathon runners have this in common; they both are affected by the weather.
Since I'm a mini-marathoner and work for John Deere, I guess I'm affected both ways! Here in Indiana, I've been training in the teens and 20s. I'm just a little worried that I'm gonna get too hot. Indiana summers get me used to the heat and humidity but we haven't had a day over 50 in about two months. Still, I'd rather not have the snow they had last year for my first Disney Half.

 

[cewait]

As typical when you watch the 15 day forecasts they tend to move back and forth a lot. Note that Accuweather added som rain on the weekend days. This is not the kind of rain to worry about. The chance and accumulations are low. Without having access to the underlying models it looks like weatherfouyou is forecasting a front through the area while the accuweather model does not have the front through.



Accuweather
5k Start 49F – Hi 72F
Half Start 54F – Hi 77F - light rain
Full Start – 55F – Hi 79F - light rain

Weatherforyou
5k Start 46F – Hi 63F
Half Start 51F – Hi 67F
Full Start 47F – Hi 70F


Norms
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

The 10 Day forecast picks up the 5k start tomorrow.

 

[ultramickeymouse]

Lets hope temps at Accuweather hold I guess the rain to be afternoon showers?

 

[Dolce27]

I think a lot of people are going to have problems with this race. The temp's will be at least 30 degrees hotter that what most of us have been training in. I don't think race day is going to be pretty.

 

[deleckidesign]

Lets hope temps at Accuweather hold

I'm hoping! I've done a majority of my training indoors, so these temps look great to me! I'm naturally cold all the time, so anything below 50 at the start and I'm going to freeze!