Marathon Weekend 2019

[DopeyBadger]

I have never seen any conversion calculator anywhere convert a flat 2:00 to 4:35.

Agreed, neither have I. Not even Vickers/Williams very forgiving 1.15 R value would be in the same place as that conversion. Seems like such an odd conversion and out of place from almost all other conversions I've seen runDisney do. So this conversion of flat 2:00 to 4:35 was someone other than yourself? Were there any other oddities behind the 2:00 HM POT submission (late POT submission after October deadline, from a race after the October POT deadline, an estimated finish time of 4:30 when using a 2:00 HM POT submission, etc.) or was this a case that a Trackshack representative stated at the expo that a 2:00 flat was a 4:35 marathon? I'd love to know more about the situation since it'll further help me pass out advice to others when these types of conversations occur. What was the actual POT race date, race result to the second, what bib (to the thousand) was the person assigned for WDW marathon? Feel free to send me a PM if you don't want to post any non-public information.

 

[PrincessV]

Does anyone ever wonder if 2 people submitted the same POT if they'd get different predictions?

(Or is it just me? )

Oh, I'd bet cold, hard cash on it, lol!

 

[run.minnie.miles]

Oh, I'd bet cold, hard cash on it, lol!

I would have you ask what a 1:57:02 10 mile is... but they might be on to me

 

[FlashAM7]

Agreed, neither have I. Not even Vickers/Williams very forgiving 1.15 R value would be in the same place as that conversion. Seems like such an odd conversion and out of place from almost all other conversions I've seen runDisney do. So this conversion of flat 2:00 to 4:35 was someone other than yourself? Were there any other oddities behind the 2:00 HM POT submission (late POT submission after October deadline, from a race after the October POT deadline, an estimated finish time of 4:30 when using a 2:00 HM POT submission, etc.) or was this a case that a Trackshack representative stated at the expo that a 2:00 flat was a 4:35 marathon? I'd love to know more about the situation since it'll further help me pass out advice to others when these types of conversations occur. What was the actual POT race date, race result to the second, what bib (to the thousand) was the person assigned for WDW marathon? Feel free to send me a PM if you don't want to post any non-public information.

Yes, they put my friend in Corral D for the WDW Marathon. He used a POT from the 2016 Orlando OUC Half Marathon where he finished at 2:00:54 (I think). I used a 2:11 Half time and was placed in like F, but I'm assuming that was because I submitted it after the deadline. Both of us ended up getting corral switches at the Expo. He got Corral C and I was moved into Corral D because they converted my time from a 2:11 half to a 4:31 full. The only explanation he ever got was in an email from Track Shack saying they converted his 2:00 to a 4:35, so he was indeed in the "correct corral" according to them. But at the Expo they confirmed he was in the wrong corral. So I have no idea. Seems like Track Shack's error.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Yes, they put my friend in Corral D for the WDW Marathon. He used a POT from the 2016 Orlando OUC Half Marathon where he finished at 2:00:54 (I think). I used a 2:11 Half time and was placed in like F, but I'm assuming that was because I submitted it after the deadline. Both of us ended up getting corral switches at the Expo. He got Corral C and I was moved into Corral D because they converted my time from a 2:11 half to a 4:31 full. The only explanation he ever got was in an email from Track Shack saying they converted his 2:00 to a 4:35, so he was indeed in the "correct corral" according to them. But at the Expo they confirmed he was in the wrong corral. So I have no idea. Seems like Track Shack's error.

So weird! Thanks for sharing!

 

[Keels]

Yes, they put my friend in Corral D for the WDW Marathon. He used a POT from the 2016 Orlando OUC Half Marathon where he finished at 2:00:54 (I think). I used a 2:11 Half time and was placed in like F, but I'm assuming that was because I submitted it after the deadline. Both of us ended up getting corral switches at the Expo. He got Corral C and I was moved into Corral D because they converted my time from a 2:11 half to a 4:31 full. The only explanation he ever got was in an email from Track Shack saying they converted his 2:00 to a 4:35, so he was indeed in the "correct corral" according to them. But at the Expo they confirmed he was in the wrong corral. So I have no idea. Seems like Track Shack's error.

You got what you want, so what is your complaint?

 

[JBinORL]

That's an interesting conversion. I haven't seen one that far out before. That would make it a Riegel R of 1.20. Per the Williams/Vickers data set, approximately 80% of half marathon runners who run a marathon would beat a R 1.20 conversion.

But a 2:11 HM (I believe that was your 2017 Wine and Dine HM) would be more in line with a 4:35 using Riegel, McMillan, and somewhere close to where I believe runDisney is. A 50 percentile performance would be more like a 4:26 for a 2:00 HM'er or a 4:51 for a 2:11 HM'er.

View attachment 313916

I'm one of those 20% I guess. My half PR is 1:55 (and I have several others around 2:01, 2:02, 2:04, etc.) while my full PR is 5:12. I'm terrible beyond 17 miles I guess.

 

[FlashAM7]

You got what you want, so what is your complaint?

As I previously stated, my complaint is that we shouldn't have to wait in line at Runner Relations at the Expo every time to get a corral change. Luckily I've only seen one issue with corral placement for Dark Side. Seems like they got it mostly right.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I'm one of those 20% I guess. My half PR is 1:55 (and I have several others around 2:01, 2:02, 2:04, etc.) while my full PR is 5:12. I'm terrible beyond 17 miles I guess.

Seems like you're missing something in your training potentially. If you want to get the full PR down, I'd be more than willing to sit down with you and discuss your previous training to look for places to tweak. I've had good luck thus far getting runners into the top 6-20% of marathon converter range.

 

[run.minnie.miles]

Breaking from our regularly scheduled POT discussions to ask this question...

How confident do we feel that marathon weekend registration will indeed happen on April 17th as scheduled?

I know some other registrations have been delayed? I'd like to maybe take the day off from work (I still have 25 vacation days to use this year), get a good run in and register right away (even though the marathon probably won't sell out right away). I did that for Princess and it was a fun day.

 

[PrincessV]

How confident do we feel that marathon weekend registration will indeed happen on April 17th as scheduled?

I'm about 70% confident.

 

[rteetz]

Breaking from our regularly scheduled POT discussions to ask this question...

How confident do we feel that marathon weekend registration will indeed happen on April 17th as scheduled?

I know some other registrations have been delayed? I'd like to maybe take the day off from work (I still have 25 vacation days to use this year), get a good run in and register right away (even though the marathon probably won't sell out right away). I did that for Princess and it was a fun day.

I’d say pretty confident. I think the main issue was with Wine and Dine. Sales with TAs and charities are well underway for marathon weekend.

 

[CDKG]

So, if we're 70% confident general registration will happen as scheduled on April 17th... How confident are we that DVC/AP registration will happen on April 12th?

I have been checking the DVC page daily for weeks (my AP is not "Active", so I cannot see the AP page) and it still says, "early registration dates coming soon". I'm not worried about registering for the marathon, but I know the 5k will go fast.

 

[jennamfeo]

Breaking from our regularly scheduled POT discussions to ask this question...

How confident do we feel that marathon weekend registration will indeed happen on April 17th as scheduled?

I know some other registrations have been delayed? I'd like to maybe take the day off from work (I still have 25 vacation days to use this year), get a good run in and register right away (even though the marathon probably won't sell out right away). I did that for Princess and it was a fun day.

I like your style.

Does Dopey sell out quick? I will be at work but will have access to a computer for registration, just wondering if I should use it as an excuse to take a day off too. Haha.

 

[PrincessV]

So, if we're 70% confident general registration will happen as scheduled on April 17th... How confident are we that DVC/AP registration will happen on April 12th?

I'll take a 50% on that one.

 

[rteetz]

So, if we're 70% confident general registration will happen as scheduled on April 17th... How confident are we that DVC/AP registration will happen on April 12th?

I have been checking the DVC page daily for weeks (my AP is not "Active", so I cannot see the AP page) and it still says, "early registration dates coming soon". I'm not worried about registering for the marathon, but I know the 5k will go fast.

I think runDisney will announce something regarding this soon.

 

[rteetz]

I like your style.

Does Dopey sell out quick? I will be at work but will have access to a computer for registration, just wondering if I should use it as an excuse to take a day off too. Haha.

Dopey did last year due to it being an anniversary year but in 2017 took a while.

 

[lhermiston]

Breaking from our regularly scheduled POT discussions to ask this question...

How confident do we feel that marathon weekend registration will indeed happen on April 17th as scheduled?

I know some other registrations have been delayed? I'd like to maybe take the day off from work (I still have 25 vacation days to use this year), get a good run in and register right away (even though the marathon probably won't sell out right away). I did that for Princess and it was a fun day.

I was wondering about all of this, too. I start a new job April 23 and my last day at my current job is April 20. I still have a ton of PTO that I expect to lose. I was thinking about taking off the 17th to make sure I get registered.

 

[cavepig]

I'm 99.9% confident registration will happen April 17 (it is odd though that Paris half opens that day too, different registration platforms at least, but just odd)
I would assume then that early is April 12.

Dopey I don't think will sell out since no anniversary. I imagine Dopey, Goofy & the Full to stay open through fall.

Glass half full vs half empty thinking on all this. I still of course haven't 100% decided on what I'm registering for Meanwhile we have snow in April freakin' coming tomorrow & Sunday, blah blah blah!

 

[run.minnie.miles]

I was wondering about all of this, too. I start a new job April 23 and my last day at my current job is April 20. I still have a ton of PTO that I expect to lose. I was thinking about taking off the 17th to make sure I get registered.

Congrats on the new job!