Marathon Weekend 2019

[run.minnie.miles]

And here we have it folks:


We do not use the McMillan or Runner’s World calculators. In the future, the runDisney calculator will be available online. In the meantime, here is the information you requested below:


· For 10 Miler: a time of 1:56 or faster would put you in the 5:30 corral

· For a Half Marathon: a time of 2:36 or faster would put you in the 5:30 corral


Thank you,

Track Shack Events on behalf of runDisney

 

[DopeyBadger]

And here we have it folks:


We do not use the McMillan or Runner’s World calculators. In the future, the runDisney calculator will be available online. In the meantime, here is the information you requested below:


· For 10 Miler: a time of 1:56 or faster would put you in the 5:30 corral

· For a Half Marathon: a time of 2:36 or faster would put you in the 5:30 corral


Thank you,

Track Shack Events on behalf of runDisney

So both would appear to be a Riegel R value of 1.08 as I thought. Why the difference between 10k to HM and 10 mi to M then? Probably because in terms of race equivalency scaling, most people can make the conversion of 10k to HM with less variance. But when making the jump from 10mi/HM to M, there is a lot more variability on the outcome of the M. So that's to say, they're probably using a 1.08 R value for the marathon conversions and a lesser value on the HM conversions (1.06 Riegel value seems to be the case with @PrincessV's 10k to HM relationship being closer to RW value (1.06), then McMillan (1.07)).

That's all to say, it will be nice when they make their calculator available so people can make informed decisions during the POT submission process.

This would put my rough estimates as the following based on 2018 corral systems:

 

[camaker]

In the future, the runDisney calculator will be available online.

Oh, runDisney, we love you so. For the record, it says the calculator will be available online. It does not say to who, or that it will be available to runners...

 

[PrincessV]

In the future, the runDisney calculator will be available online.

"In the future..." What, like in 2045?

 

[DopeyBadger]

Noticed an error on my part, as @run.minnie.miles said 1:56. This would be a R value of 1.0809 and 1.0855. So not quite 1.08 for both (as one rounds to 1.09).

 

[run.minnie.miles]

Oh, runDisney, we love you so.

I am not feeling the love right now.

But when making the jump from 10mi/HM to M, there is a lot more variability on the outcome of the M.

I definitely agree with this. It doesn't help my current disappointment though.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I definitely agree with this. It doesn't help my current disappointment though.

I know that was the end of 10 mi availability for you, but I feel quite confident you can crush a 2:36 HM and get that submittable POT you desire!

 

[lhermiston]

I definitely agree with this. It doesn't help my current disappointment though.

Sorry about the less than ideal news! Any races you can do between now and October (I think that’s the cutoff) to improve your POT? Keep your head up and keep up the good work.

 

[run.minnie.miles]

I know that was the end of 10 mi availability for you, but I feel quite confident you can crush a 2:36 HM and get that submittable POT you desire!

Sorry about the less than ideal news! Any races you can do between now and October (I think that’s the cutoff) to improve your POT? Keep your head up and keep up the good work.

'

Thanks guys!

Even in the wind, I know that I could have ran the additional 5K for a half in less than 38:58, so I think you're right. I wasn't planning on racing again until the end of October, but I think I may need to revisit that now. Racing for me involves overnight stays and hundreds of miles on the road, so that makes it a little tough. I was trying to aim for 2 main races a year, so maybe I'll have to drop the planned October race. Also, the 5:30 corral would not be the end of the world. It's really probably about where I'll be... it's just something about having that "qualifying time" that seems special... like running a marathon isn't completely crazy.

 

[FFigawi]

"In the future..." What, like in 2045?

In the future, there might be more races at Disneyland too

 

[lhermiston]

'

Thanks guys!

Even in the wind, I know that I could have ran the additional 5K for a half in less than 38:58, so I think you're right. I wasn't planning on racing again until the end of October, but I think I may need to revisit that now. Racing for me involves overnight stays and hundreds of miles on the road, so that makes it a little tough. I was trying to aim for 2 main races a year, so maybe I'll have to drop the planned October race. Also, the 5:30 corral would not be the end of the world. It's really probably about where I'll be... it's just something about having that "qualifying time" that seems special... like running a marathon isn't completely crazy.

It sounds to me like you’ve put a lot of effort into your POT. My thought would be to try to find another race and hope for better conditions since you’re so close to your goal. But I certainly understand travel issues.

Best of luck with whatever you decide.

 

[run.minnie.miles]

View attachment 313425

So both would appear to be a Riegel R value of 1.08 as I thought. Why the difference between 10k to HM and 10 mi to M then? Probably because in terms of race equivalency scaling, most people can make the conversion of 10k to HM with less variance. But when making the jump from 10mi/HM to M, there is a lot more variability on the outcome of the M. So that's to say, they're probably using a 1.08 R value for the marathon conversions and a lesser value on the HM conversions (1.06 Riegel value seems to be the case with @PrincessV's 10k to HM relationship being closer to RW value (1.06), then McMillan (1.07)).

That's all to say, it will be nice when they make their calculator available so people can make informed decisions during the POT submission process.

This would put my rough estimates as the following based on 2018 corral systems:

View attachment 313427

Messing around with pace and times a little bit, I wonder if they are just using a simple increase in pace.

10 mile pace + 1min = Marathon Pace
HM pace + 40-45s = Marathon Pace
10K pace + 30s = HM pace

Think it could be this simple @DopeyBadger ?

ETA: I didn't test this theory too far, but it works for my 10 mile time and Princess V 's 10K to half.

 

[pluto377]

All this PoT talk has inspired me to sign up for a half in October. It's like two days before the deadline so hopefully I do well because it's my only chance! My time from Princess this year was abysmal and I know I can do better. I just hope I can on that day.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Messing around with pace and times a little bit, I wonder if they are just using a simple increase in pace.

10 mile pace + 1min = Marathon Pace
HM pace + 40-45s = Marathon Pace
10K pace + 30s = HM pace

Think it could be this simple @DopeyBadger ?

ETA: I didn't test this theory too far, but it works for my 10 mile time and Princess V 's 10K to half.

It's entirely possible. To know more definitively we would need about 5 or 6 sets of data with varying times from very fast to near POT. The variety would spread out the difference between an additive effect (like yours) and Riegel like calculation (more based on exponential differences).

 

[cavepig]

'

Thanks guys!

Even in the wind, I know that I could have ran the additional 5K for a half in less than 38:58, so I think you're right. I wasn't planning on racing again until the end of October, but I think I may need to revisit that now. Racing for me involves overnight stays and hundreds of miles on the road, so that makes it a little tough. I was trying to aim for 2 main races a year, so maybe I'll have to drop the planned October race. Also, the 5:30 corral would not be the end of the world. It's really probably about where I'll be... it's just something about having that "qualifying time" that seems special... like running a marathon isn't completely crazy.

Crazy the calculations end up so wonky!
There's the half I'm doing in May you could do!!! It doesn't go up in price till April 20 I think & it's only $50 right now (no registration fees either), hills in the last 3 miles I've read as I haven't ran it. A flatter half is the Omaha one in September right before the POT cutoff, it's an out and back & finish in the baseball stadium.

 

[run.minnie.miles]

Crazy the calculations end up so wonky!
There's the half I'm doing in May you could do!!! It doesn't go up in price till April 20 I think & it's only $50 right now (no registration fees either), hills in the last 3 miles I've read as I haven't ran it. A flatter half is the Omaha one in September right before the POT cutoff, it's an out and back & finish in the baseball stadium.

Hills at the end? I'm, umm, busy that weekend?

I was actually looking at the Omaha half last night. It looks like everyone's start time is the gun time? I don't love that- I need all of the help I can get! I also looked into the State Fair half which looks fun (but maybe hot?).

 

[cavepig]

Hills at the end? I'm, umm, busy that weekend?

I was actually looking at the Omaha half last night. It looks like everyone's start time is the gun time? I don't love that- I need all of the help I can get! I also looked into the State Fair half which looks fun (but maybe hot?).

Omaha has always been net time gun time would be so not cool.

 

[FlashAM7]

In order to not let Track Shack/RunDisney be in control of my time calculations, I will just enter in a POT that matches the distance I am running (Enter in a Half Marathon POT for a Half Marathon, enter a full marathon POT for a full marathon, etc.). I realize a lot of runners don't have this option as maybe they have never run a full marathon or half marathon, but I'm tired of RunDisney miscalculating my time conversions and putting me in the wrong corral and having to get it fixed at the Expo.

 

[run.minnie.miles]

Omaha has always been net time gun time would be so not cool.

Ok good- I thought this was crazy.
( I was looking at the race's FB page and someone asked when they would be posting chip times for the race and the race responded "All times are gun times." So they need to work on their social media...)

 

[cavepig]

Ok good- I thought this was crazy.
( I was looking at the race's FB page and someone asked when they would be posting chip times for the race and the race responded "All times are gun times." So they need to work on their social media...)

Oh those are strange comments I just looked, then saw one said chip would be posted later that day. If you go to the 2017 results it lists chip & gun times. I didn't run last year, but when I did it before it gave us an individual page but now it looks like it's a list of everyone or by age group but that still works for runDisney POT. They advertise as a Boston qualifying course too so it better have Chip time! It really is pretty flat & finishing in the College World Series stadium is cool. They had plenty of food/refreshments after too. The state fair race I only know of a friend who signed up but didn't run it cause the summer heat (and her lack of training), but yeah who knows with our weather it could be a lot of fun.