Neon Cactus
Old Run Disney Addict
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- Feb 10, 2016
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I’m planning on doing 20 this Saturday and then just keep running regularly up until the race.
Marathon Weekend 2019
- Thread starter lhermiston
- Start date
DustyWA
Earning My Ears
- Joined
- Apr 25, 2018
- Messages
- 47
I'll be doing a 13 mile long run this weekend. I haven't decided what I'll do the following weekend, but my long run will likely be somewhere around 10 miles. My fitness is where I want it to be and I'm not anticipating any excessive difficulty finishing Dopey. I'll just need to make sure I take it slow!
run.minnie.miles
DIS Veteran
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- Jul 6, 2016
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- 2,053
I can't believe how close it is! I feel kind of unprepared for the travel aspect, but have been happy with my training. I had to modify a week due to some foot issues, but overall it's gone well. This is my "peak week," so I did 5 miles on Monday, 10 miles yesterday, have 5 miles tonight and then the BIG 20 MILER on Saturday. I am so ready to have that run completed, it's kind of been looming over me for the last month. I think Christmas coming right after this big run is perfect timing, bring on all the yummy food and cozy pjs!
My hometown race is the previously mentioned Colorado Marathon (http://comarathon.com/raceinfo). It has A LOT less elevation drop than this and still beats up my knees and hips each year when I run it. To lose almost 5000 feet over 26 miles would necessitate some pretty serious training on downhills (not to mention the whole 10,000 ft starting elevation). You do a lot more "braking" with your muscles when running downhill like that, and it takes a toll if you don't train for it.
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
- Messages
- 10,357
Alright, some corral math for those interested:
The 2018 Marathon Weekend corrals. It shows the number of bibs of each type in each corral in the left charts for the M (top) and HM (bottom). The cumulative bib count (red column) shows the number of runners ahead/within of that particular corral. The % ahead (green column) shows the % of the field ahead. The % within (orange column) shows the % of the field contained within that corral. So in 2018 the non-POT marathon corrals (F, G, and H) made up ~55% of the field containing 15, 23, and 16.5% of the field respectively.
Here are the 2019 Marathon Weekend corrals.
The total number of bibs in the marathon is down from 26893 to 17097. The HM is relatively steady at 27663 vs 25145. The non-POT marathon corrals make up ~56% of the field for the marathon and about 65% of the HM field (similar to 2018). However, as I predicted a few months ago, people have gotten wise. The F corral (fastest non-POT corral) has gone from 15% of the field to 27-31% of the field for the M and HM. But, for the marathon that increase in % is offset by less actual participants (meaning marathon corral F in 2018 had 4055 runners and 2019 has 4872). But the HM corral F is a different story given 4160 vs 7744 runners (a near doubling in size for Corral F of the HM). Since H is relatively steady, we can see that the majority of these runners came from corral G.
As for timing and congestion on course, there are a few ways runDisney could handle it, but I narrowed my analysis to the two most likely. This is more specific to the marathon given the HM is roughly the same size, thus the expected start times remains the same.
Scenario 1 - They keep the start time of the last person constant at roughly 6:31am.
This is the method I anticipate they will use. The start of the race is roughly 5:30am. The last person usually crosses the start around 6:31am (based on 61 min gap of gun-chip time). The number of runners has dropped from 26983 to 17907. The rate at which they send runners across the starting line when it was 26983 varied from 350-450 per minute. In this case, it would drop by about 33%. So the rate would be 230-300 runners per minute instead. I'd anticipate they'd keep a similar number of mini-waves. In 2018, there were 8 corrals and 25 total mini-waves:
Given the shift in runners from G to F, I'd anticipate those to swap. There will probably be 6-7 waves in F and 3-4 waves in G instead. Given the slowed rate, the reduced number of runners, and a constant ending time in this scenario, all runners from A through H would experience a roughly 33% drop in congestion on the course. So if you used to have two people shoulder to shoulder with you in 2018, then in 2019 you would expect to have only one person shoulder to shoulder with you.
The following would be my estimated expected start times:
This is what runDisney should do, but I can't be certain they will do this. I would guess with a high likelihood of probability that the HM start times will look awfully similar to this.
Scenario 2 - They keep the rate of runners across the starting line constant and thus the last runner will not cross at 6:31am.
In this scenario, the number of runners across the starting line is the same rate as years past. The 10000th runner in 2018 crossed at about 5:54am and was in the front of Corral E. In 2019, the 10000th runner will be towards the back of Corral F. But in both years (2018 and 2019), that person would cross at 5:54am. Since the number of runners in 2019 is reduced, but the rate remains constant from 2018 and 2019, it means the last person in 2019 would cross the start line sooner than 6:31am.
That 17907th person crossed around 6:16am in 2018. So in 2019, the anticipated last person to cross would be around 6:16am as well (again rate constant). That would reduce the back-end cushion from the balloon ladies (sweep) by a variable amount but maximally 15 min.
So in this scenario (based on rate of runners crossing the line), a runner in A would start at 5:31am, and a runner in G would start at 6:02am (see "Rate Timing"). Whereas, in Scenario #1 (constant start time of last person, see "End Timing") Corral A would start at 5:31am, but G would start at 6:18am instead. The thing that is noticeable is the start time of Corrals A through C are still roughly the same. The disparity starts to open up around Corral D as that is where the biggest difference between 2018 and 2019 starts to exist. As you can see, runners in Corral A would have a reduced cushion by 15 min. Instead of getting a 60 min cushion on the sweep and having a near maximal finish around 8:00, now instead they are around a maximal finish of 7:45 hours. For a runner in Corral E, their cushion was reduced from 37 min down to 30 min (or loss of 7 min; drop of maximal finish from 7:37 down to 7:30).
I don't anticipate that this is the method runDisney will use. The course would remain as congested as year's past (because rate constant) and runners would lose cushion from the sweep. I see the timing just being different from them and I'm sure they like to keep timing much more constant and known rather than a bigger variable. So I still believe Scenario #1 is more likely for the M and HM start times.
The 2018 Marathon Weekend corrals. It shows the number of bibs of each type in each corral in the left charts for the M (top) and HM (bottom). The cumulative bib count (red column) shows the number of runners ahead/within of that particular corral. The % ahead (green column) shows the % of the field ahead. The % within (orange column) shows the % of the field contained within that corral. So in 2018 the non-POT marathon corrals (F, G, and H) made up ~55% of the field containing 15, 23, and 16.5% of the field respectively.
Here are the 2019 Marathon Weekend corrals.
The total number of bibs in the marathon is down from 26893 to 17097. The HM is relatively steady at 27663 vs 25145. The non-POT marathon corrals make up ~56% of the field for the marathon and about 65% of the HM field (similar to 2018). However, as I predicted a few months ago, people have gotten wise. The F corral (fastest non-POT corral) has gone from 15% of the field to 27-31% of the field for the M and HM. But, for the marathon that increase in % is offset by less actual participants (meaning marathon corral F in 2018 had 4055 runners and 2019 has 4872). But the HM corral F is a different story given 4160 vs 7744 runners (a near doubling in size for Corral F of the HM). Since H is relatively steady, we can see that the majority of these runners came from corral G.
As for timing and congestion on course, there are a few ways runDisney could handle it, but I narrowed my analysis to the two most likely. This is more specific to the marathon given the HM is roughly the same size, thus the expected start times remains the same.
Scenario 1 - They keep the start time of the last person constant at roughly 6:31am.
This is the method I anticipate they will use. The start of the race is roughly 5:30am. The last person usually crosses the start around 6:31am (based on 61 min gap of gun-chip time). The number of runners has dropped from 26983 to 17907. The rate at which they send runners across the starting line when it was 26983 varied from 350-450 per minute. In this case, it would drop by about 33%. So the rate would be 230-300 runners per minute instead. I'd anticipate they'd keep a similar number of mini-waves. In 2018, there were 8 corrals and 25 total mini-waves:
Given the shift in runners from G to F, I'd anticipate those to swap. There will probably be 6-7 waves in F and 3-4 waves in G instead. Given the slowed rate, the reduced number of runners, and a constant ending time in this scenario, all runners from A through H would experience a roughly 33% drop in congestion on the course. So if you used to have two people shoulder to shoulder with you in 2018, then in 2019 you would expect to have only one person shoulder to shoulder with you.
The following would be my estimated expected start times:
This is what runDisney should do, but I can't be certain they will do this. I would guess with a high likelihood of probability that the HM start times will look awfully similar to this.
Scenario 2 - They keep the rate of runners across the starting line constant and thus the last runner will not cross at 6:31am.
In this scenario, the number of runners across the starting line is the same rate as years past. The 10000th runner in 2018 crossed at about 5:54am and was in the front of Corral E. In 2019, the 10000th runner will be towards the back of Corral F. But in both years (2018 and 2019), that person would cross at 5:54am. Since the number of runners in 2019 is reduced, but the rate remains constant from 2018 and 2019, it means the last person in 2019 would cross the start line sooner than 6:31am.
That 17907th person crossed around 6:16am in 2018. So in 2019, the anticipated last person to cross would be around 6:16am as well (again rate constant). That would reduce the back-end cushion from the balloon ladies (sweep) by a variable amount but maximally 15 min.
So in this scenario (based on rate of runners crossing the line), a runner in A would start at 5:31am, and a runner in G would start at 6:02am (see "Rate Timing"). Whereas, in Scenario #1 (constant start time of last person, see "End Timing") Corral A would start at 5:31am, but G would start at 6:18am instead. The thing that is noticeable is the start time of Corrals A through C are still roughly the same. The disparity starts to open up around Corral D as that is where the biggest difference between 2018 and 2019 starts to exist. As you can see, runners in Corral A would have a reduced cushion by 15 min. Instead of getting a 60 min cushion on the sweep and having a near maximal finish around 8:00, now instead they are around a maximal finish of 7:45 hours. For a runner in Corral E, their cushion was reduced from 37 min down to 30 min (or loss of 7 min; drop of maximal finish from 7:37 down to 7:30).
I don't anticipate that this is the method runDisney will use. The course would remain as congested as year's past (because rate constant) and runners would lose cushion from the sweep. I see the timing just being different from them and I'm sure they like to keep timing much more constant and known rather than a bigger variable. So I still believe Scenario #1 is more likely for the M and HM start times.
Last edited:
Bree
Runs on Coffee
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2009
- Messages
- 5,469
I was supposed to be the race shirt spy today as a volunteer, but weather is horrible. I’m literally sitting in a car line to pick my son up from school and they just issued a warning on the radio to seek shelter because a tornado just formed about 10 miles away. I would have had to drive home in the worst of the weather.
I have 8 Friday, 14 Saturday and then things start winding down. Next week my longest run is 8 miles and the following week has a 10 miler mid week.
I have 8 Friday, 14 Saturday and then things start winding down. Next week my longest run is 8 miles and the following week has a 10 miler mid week.
I'm biased, since the Colorado Marathon is my hometown race, but I really like it. I've run the half or the full every year for about 7 years. The first 16 miles of the marathon are on the road in a river canyon, so there is alternating right/left camber on the road that will wear on your legs, along with the downhill. But it is SOOO much better than Colfax, IMHO
ACK!!!! SO UPSET!!!! I usually place in my age group! I am in corral H!!!!! I think I may have not included a link when I submitted proof of time!!!! I literally feel sick! Has anyone ever been this far back? Is it difficult to get around the walkers? I am going to have a horrible time! I am so competitive, I just feel so deflated. Any advise?!!! TIA!!!
FFigawi
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2009
- Messages
- 6,702
The first major alcohol location on course is the Thirsty River Bar in AK near mile 13. In the past two years, they have opened it between 7 and 730. I'd expect the same will be true again this year. The next real opportunity for alcohol is in DHS as I have not heard of the bars and carts in ESPN being open during the race. Plus, they're a bit out of the way. Once in DHS, you can buy booze at the bars and carts starting at 11. With the course now running along the BW side of the lake, you can probably get a drink at one of the bars along there even earlier than 11. I think I've seen the margarita cart open before then. In Epcot, the bars normally open between 11 and 12 depending on the location. I'm sure @Keels will jump in here and correct all the things I got wrong.
PrincessV
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Jul 6, 2006
- Messages
- 14,318
I agree. Back in the days before they had so many corrals, and that was because the overall field was smaller, and there were no mini-waves, it still took about an hour from first starters to last starters. The corrals were huge and still took time to get through the start, even without the pausing to do mini-waves. Even races like W&D that had 12,000 runners took about an hour to clear the start.
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
- Messages
- 10,357
You can attempt to show at runner's relations at the expo that you were corralled inappropriately. Bring evidence that your POT was submitted (like a screen shot) of your registration. You can also bring with you a copy of the POT to see if you can be helped. Conversely, you could also try emailing Track Shack to see if the error was on their end and they might be willing to move your corral starting position. I'd be as kind and as courteous as possible.
However, in dealing with the possibility of starting in Corral H. Here is some evidence that shows runners finished as fast as 3:10 in the marathon from that corral starting position. A total of 5 runners went sub 3:30, 24 runners went sub 4:00, and 85 runners sub-4:30 from actually starting in corral H (and not corral jumping) in 2018.
-Devereaux finished 2nd place in her AG, 11th female overall, 92nd overall, missed no timing mats, and the splits look to be appropriate on the surface.
-Bruce finished 3rd place in AG, 113th overall, missed no timing mats, and splits are good as well.
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
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- 10,357
Agreed. Similarly, the 5k/10k at marathon weekend have roughly 12,000 runners and they take about 60 min to go from start to finish. The rate is altered across the line, but the total time remains constant.
PrincessV
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Jul 6, 2006
- Messages
- 14,318
One exception is the Boulangerie in France, which opens early for breakfast... and serves champagne and mimosas, and probably beer, too, well before the other places open at 11. My favorite detour
You are the best for doing this! I appreciate it. I'll try to get it fixed, but am not optimistic!
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
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- 10,357
So I've got:
-7:30am Thirsty River
-9:00am Les Halles/Joffrey's
-11:00am "Other" EPCOT alcohol
Looks like I need to add:
-11:00am DHS
-Unk BW Bars
SarahDisney
So ... Yeah
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2014
- Messages
- 9,336
Guys, is there such thing as too many running skirts? Asking for a friend.
Also ... would you wear a new skirt for the 5k if it's the same style that you've worn before but a new color. I know nothing new on race day, but I've worn the style before and if I order today, I dont know when things will arrive so I may not have time to practice in it.
Also ... would you wear a new skirt for the 5k if it's the same style that you've worn before but a new color. I know nothing new on race day, but I've worn the style before and if I order today, I dont know when things will arrive so I may not have time to practice in it.
PrincessV
DIS Legend
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- Jul 6, 2006
- Messages
- 14,318
Absolutely, without a second thought!
run.minnie.miles
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jul 6, 2016
- Messages
- 2,053
I think you have very little risk of damage during a 5K... you should be fine!
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