But you are assuming that Disney is ok with keeping the total numbers of any MK stagnant. If they feel that a certain MK is not as profitable as they would like, they very well could just stop renewals and new sales. This past year proves that they may pull the availability of a MK at any time. Those that already had MKs may have been ok, but those that bought 5 day tickets for a trip, after which they have planned to upgrade to a MK which suddenly (was there any notice?) wasn’t available will probably tell you that they no longer blindly trust Disney to keep things available. Buyer beware here.
Honestly, it's the pessimism that grinds me a bit. I'm not a fan of blind hypothesizing of the worst-case scenario. We're literally in day one of renewals - they wouldn't be going to this much trouble to let people renew if they were just going to stop offering renewals on Friday.
Could it happen? I mean, sure - anything's possible. But I don't think what you're describing is likely at all.
All of the MK pulls in the last year happened for specific reasons. The Dream Key and Believe Key went away because the holiday season was already sold out, which rendered it pointless to continue selling. Plus, capacity was low enough back then that they didn't
need more of them. (Also, in the case of the Dream Key, possibly the lawsuit.) Enchant and Imagine got pulled in May because they were blocked out for the summer and they didn't want people to upgrade from tickets as a backdoor around the blockouts. (I understand if people were planning on doing that, but that would be a
tremendous discount for a pass that wasn't valid at the time the person was actually in the park - I can't really blame Disney for finally closing that loophole.)
In reality, the "unfavorable attendance mix" was not an attack on APs - it was actually an admission that they
have to have APs - they can't fill the parks with ticket buyers alone. (That's why you keep seeing more AP availability the night before a park day - they're releasing some of the space that they were holding for last-minute ticket buyers.) With the lower-tier Keys in particular, they're selling otherwise-unfilled space at a discount - because they
have to. That's the whole reason they rushed the MK program out there last year - they weren't selling enough tickets.
And, right now, capacity is higher than it was when they started selling MKs last year. There's almost certainly room for more of them than there are now - and they really can't afford to lose the ones they already have. Statistically speaking, a lot of people are not going to renew - they're going to eventually need to bring in new MK holders.
We've spent weeks with the board predicting doom and gloom - I think a lot of folks were expecting them to cancel the MK program entirely. But here we are, renewals in hand. It makes sense to have at least some sense of optimism at the moment.
What's happening now is a pretty solidly good situation for most folks - no reason to imagine the worst until something bad actually happens.