Plain and simple Saratoga Springa just doesn't stack up to other DVC offerings especially the two new properties that are now for sale.
The resort-setting of the Animal Kingdom Villas and Bay Lake Villas completely eclipse the condo complex atmosphere of Saratoga Springs. If you owned at SSR you would want to unload your points in favor of these new properties too.
Your opinion--nothing more.
Sales statistics suggest that buyers continued to favor SSR over AKV while the two were being sold simultaneously. Numbers available in this post:
http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=21231201
SSR continued to out-sell AKV for the first 7 months both were selling concurrently.
I myself own at Boardwalk and at Wilderness Lodge, and so I feel no buyer's remorse when I look at the new DVC hotels. If I owned at Saratoga I wouldn't be able to sell quick enough. By the look of the high volume and low price *of SSR re-sales I'm apparently not alone in my assessment.
Regrettably, DVC's largest property is also its least appealing, and we will all be feeling the effects of this poor planning for decades to come. SSR owners will be more interested in booking vacations at the other DVC resorts and/or selling off completely. The 11-month booking window has never been more important thanks to the lack of SSR's appeal. And SSR owners are now all fighting to get into the "good" DVC resorts, while no one is fighting to stay at SSR.
13 million points available at SSR and there are currently 20,000 on the resale market. Not exactly a "sky is falling" scenario.
Prices for SSR resales are also trending similarly to all other resorts. Examine the information here:
http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=27741118&postcount=40
According to that chart, SSR resale averages have dropped from a high of $85 per point to $80 per point over the last two years. Over that same period BCV went from $95 to $91. VWL went from $85 to $81. BWV went from $86 to $83.
The fact that SSR dropped $1 per point more than other resorts doesn't exactly speak to any widespread panic. And, as expected, looking at the extremes (the $71 contract which started this thread) doesn't even come close to telling an accurate story.
The volume of resales is high, but for a resort that's just coming off 5 years of active sales I don't find it particularly shocking. AKV has only sold and closed on 120-some rooms at Jambo, yet they have 18 resales on the market. In fact, that ratio is worse than the 824 units / 118 resales for SSR.
Think about it: When DVC offers an incentive for new buyers they give you points at SSR where there is low demand even though the property is 100% sold. They don't offer you a week at the Boardwalk as an incentive - they offer you a week where they have little demand anyway and that is always SSR.
Your assumptions are entirely incorrect.
The points DVC is giving out are "Developer's Points". Developer's Points originate with contracts that are owned (unsold) by the developer (i.e. Disney Vacation Development.)
The reason DVC has Developer's Points available at SSR is because they finished construction in June 2007 and spent another 10-12 months selling the remainder of the points. During those months DVD/DVC held the contracts and can do whatever they wish with the points from the '06/07/08 Use Years. In this case they chose to offer the points as a sales incentive.
Kidani Village will be complete by this time next year, yet will probably be selling for another year or two beyond that. At that point it's very likely we will see similar incentives offering AKV Developer's Points to new buyers.
As it becomes harder and harder for SSR owners to stay outside of their home resort you will see re-sales surge and price tags fall.
Doubt it. If anything, we've already seen the worst of it.
Right now SSR represents about 37% of all DVC rooms at WDW. That's been the percentage for over a year now. By September '09 Kidani and BLT will be open and that percentage will drop to 29%. Plus the Treehouse Villas will open and add greater appeal to SSR.
SSR will continue to be a smaller and smaller percentage of all DVC rooms and satisfaction among owners is likely to increase. They'll not only have their own Home to book at 11 months--including the Treehouse Villas--but will have more destinations to choose from 7 months out.
Don't bother feeding the toll, folks. We've been down this road before.
