Lower birth rates and the future of those BIG HOUSES?

[Forevermarypoppins]

How my topic came about:

I drove by my grandparent's old home again. My mom lived there for only a few years before marrying my dad. Awhile back I stopped and spoke with the current owners when I saw them outside doing yardwork. I told them how my grandfather had a bricklaying business and built the home and that 4 kids (3 girls/1 boy) lived in the home and how my grandmother ran a large rooming house before moving into this approx 1000 sq ft home and was thrilled!

This got me thinking also about the new trend of larger homes. We see it all the time expecially on the home improvement shows. I still roll my eyes every time a couple with 2 kids and 1 on the way will say they need a bigger house. I remember families in my neighborhood that had 6 kids and lived in a 1000 sq ft home. They made do with the bedroom set up in the basement, if they were lucky there was at least a toilet down there also.

SO, with birthrates falling and many people deciding that one or NO children is their desire, who will be buying these large homes in 20 to 30 years?

 

[Dug720]

The cats and dogs need rooms of their own!

 

[MillauFr]

How my topic came about:

I drove by my grandparent's old home again. My mom lived there for only a few years before marrying my dad. Awhile back I stopped and spoke with the current owners when I saw them outside doing yardwork. I told them how my grandfather had a bricklaying business and built the home and that 4 kids (3 girls/1 boy) lived in the home and how my grandmother ran a large rooming house before moving into this approx 1000 sq ft home and was thrilled!

This got me thinking also about the new trend of larger homes. We see it all the time expecially on the home improvement shows. I still roll my eyes every time a couple with 2 kids and 1 on the way will say they need a bigger house. I remember families in my neighborhood that had 6 kids and lived in a 1000 sq ft home. They made do with the bedroom set up in the basement, if they were lucky there was at least a toilet down there also.

SO, with birthrates falling and many people deciding that one or NO children is their desire, who will be buying these large homes in 20 to 30 years?

Won't many of them get torn down and replaced with 6 townhomes? That is what is happening in Seattle.

 

[Threehearts]

A bigger problem in my area is open floor plan regret. People seem to going back to preferring rooms on the first floor rather than the decorating and privacy issues which can be an issue with open concept. Maybe that's a regional change.

 

[Disneylover99]

SO, with birthrates falling and many people deciding that one or NO children is their desire, who will be buying these large homes in 20 to 30 years?

People with extended families who can’t afford to get into the housing market on their own.
Just a thought.

 

[barkley]

How my topic came about:

I drove by my grandparent's old home again. My mom lived there for only a few years before marrying my dad. Awhile back I stopped and spoke with the current owners when I saw them outside doing yardwork. I told them how my grandfather had a bricklaying business and built the home and that 4 kids (3 girls/1 boy) lived in the home and how my grandmother ran a large rooming house before moving into this approx 1000 sq ft home and was thrilled!

This got me thinking also about the new trend of larger homes. We see it all the time expecially on the home improvement shows. I still roll my eyes every time a couple with 2 kids and 1 on the way will say they need a bigger house. I remember families in my neighborhood that had 6 kids and lived in a 1000 sq ft home. They made do with the bedroom set up in the basement, if they were lucky there was at least a toilet down there also.

SO, with birthrates falling and many people deciding that one or NO children is their desire, who will be buying these large homes in 20 to 30 years?

I grew up in a 1080 sq foot 3 bed/2 bath home. 4 of us kids/mom and dad. we survived just fine (no basements in that region to utilize). I rolled my eyes at the show I just watched wherein the wife (mom of 2 soon to be college bound daughters) vetoed multiple homes that hit the mark on everything she and her dh wanted just b/c not all of the bedrooms were full ensuites (she said her dd's could 'never' tolerate having to share a bathroom with someone else-made me wonder what their college housing was going to entail). they ended up with a 3 story townhouse that was massive and I suspect between the overall size and all those stairs they will ultimately age out of.

Won't many of them get torn down and replaced with 6 townhomes? That is what is happening in Seattle.

depends on zoning, infrastructure and how much the local coffers can afford. the largest city near us has politicians that are pushing for more housing (claiming it will be 'affordable') and talk about rezoning some of the older neighborhoods with the oversized lots to allow for adu's or multiple family townhomes. the questions/concerns that are continualy raised pertain to how the existing water, sewer and power infrastructure cannot support those additional structures. fire officials point out that the alleys the politicos point to as 'alternate access' (since the narrow old streets can't even support the existing traffic) are too narrow for fire and other emergency equipment access. it's not like raw land where a developer can come in and start from scratch so the cost is prohibitive. the local taxpayers have no desire to vote in massive increases so it continues to be talked about with no realistic plans offered up.

 

[china mom]

I do think there is a need for large homes as so many households become multi generational. We bought a huge house so tgat we could move my aging (now deceased) mother in.

 

[HopperFan]

SO, with birthrates falling and many people deciding that one or NO children is their desire, who will be buying these large homes in 20 to 30 years?

It will def vary by region, and what the housing market will be then.

We have plenty of empty nesters not leaving their homes in our neighborhood. It would be much more expensive for them to downsize. I joke I'm going out with toe tags.

You can buy one of our homes for less than the cost of most townhomes being built in the area, and their taxes will be much higher and add the monthly fees ~ our big houses are quite the bargain.

We've had young couples buy that 4 bedroom homes ... they work from home and use the bedrooms as offices, and still have a guest room. I feel like the young ones are entertaining more, and as the cost of going out has gone up, having the space to entertain is good.

I think COVID shutdown left a lasting mark, and many young couples, kids or not, want the space and outdoors. Those yards were priceless for people, young kids and our furbabies. Folks also began cooking more and even I enjoy it so much more than before COVID.

As others have mentioned multi-generational households are making a comeback. It is so expensive for young people to enter the housing market, paying lower rent at home allows for some savings. Some folks are having to bring parents back in and that is going to get much worse.

DS#2 has been living here while working until his finances were at a point to move out, which he is in process of doing now. He is currently living in our basement apartment paying rent. Win/win for us. DH and I were just talking about replacing all the flooring downstairs as we have on the other floors. I said we need to rip out the tub (when we put in bath / with kitchenette we saved by putting in a once piece fiberglass) and make it an accessible shower. We have to be ready for taking care of our own as the services out there are declining. I'm glad we have never talked about downsizing.

I think there will be a demand for these homes for many reasons. We already have shortage now, and new starts are slowing.

 

[gottalovepluto]

SO, with birthrates falling and many people deciding that one or NO children is their desire, who will be buying these large homes in 20 to 30 years?

Nobody knows what the birthdate will be in 20-30 years. You are assuming the projection doesn’t change. This is flawed on its face to me as it assumes the cultural makeup doesn’t change and that AI doesn’t start rapidly taking over white collar jobs (which would leaving a chunk of women with not much else to do with their lives).

In the meantime Covid very nicely scared multiple generations of Americans who look at a house and say “what if we had to work from home and teach the kids for a year plus and no one can go anywhere?” So that should keep big houses in favor for sometime (market crash not withstanding obviously).

 

[gottalovepluto]

-

 

[disykat]

Maybe it's just living in the Pacific Northwest in high cost of living areas where lots of buildings are post 1950, but I didn't know big houses ever became the norm? I remember the McMansion era, but we didn't see that in our area unless it was really pricey neighborhoods. Not what I would call "the norm."

 

[gottalovepluto]

People with extended families who can’t afford to get into the housing market on their own.
Just a thought.

Multi-generational housing is already on the rise. Very good point.

 

[Disneylover99]

Multi-generational housing is already on the rise. Very good point.

3 or 4 bedroom homes used to be the quickest to sell around me. Now those houses sit on the market longer than the houses with 5+ bedrooms. Plus, basements with full kitchens are the norm around here these days, rather than a basement with just a bar.

I guess only time will tell to see if this trend sticks around.

 

[MillauFr]

depends on zoning, infrastructure and how much the local coffers can afford. the largest city near us has politicians that are pushing for more housing (claiming it will be 'affordable') and talk about rezoning some of the older neighborhoods with the oversized lots to allow for adu's or multiple family townhomes. the questions/concerns that are continualy raised pertain to how the existing water, sewer and power infrastructure cannot support those additional structures. fire officials point out that the alleys the politicos point to as 'alternate access' (since the narrow old streets can't even support the existing traffic) are too narrow for fire and other emergency equipment access. it's not like raw land where a developer can come in and start from scratch so the cost is prohibitive. the local taxpayers have no desire to vote in massive increases so it continues to be talked about with no realistic plans offered up.

The State or Washington blocked local jurisdictions from restricting residential zones to single family housing. The City of Cle Elum tried to stop development and the developer sued and won. Now the city is bankrupt.

 

[barkley]

The State or Washington blocked local jurisdictions from restricting residential zones to single family housing. The City of Cle Elum tried to stop development and the developer sued and won. Now the city is bankrupt.

so an individual city can't outright restrict but that does'nt override existing local and state health, safety and building codes. in the case of the large city near us there's no reasonable ingress and egress to the lots the city politicians point to as ideal (based on the yard sizes) so a proposed home(s) would'nt meet fire code. the only conceivable means of widening the existing alleys or creating streets from scratch would (I imagine) entail the very costly, time consuming and litigous concept of eminent domain (and then you get into the whole issue of land that is prohibited from building on due to easements from privately owned power companies). the existing water and sewer systems are so old that additional bathrooms (and in many cases bedrooms b/c of perceived increased water usage) have been prohibited for decades so an additional structure could not be permitted for attachment.

I get the spirit of the law when it comes to open undeveloped areas of land (which if I remember correctly is what the cle elum dispute involves) but when it comes to existing older neighborhoods it's very difficult.

 

[NannyBeBe]

When my father died and my mother did not want to live alone, we sold our home and hers and purchased the home that I now live in. We had the option of converting one of the three garage spaces into a bedroom with a bath for my mom. Mom passed and for a while it was just my husband and me in this huge house. Then my granddaughter got married and I invited her and her husband to move in with us. They have two bedrooms and a loft to themselves. It works out very well. I see families living like this more and more because young people cannot afford to buy even a starter home.

 

[ronandannette]

People with extended families who can’t afford to get into the housing market on their own.
Just a thought.

It's not always a matter of finances. Here in Calgary my company builds 500+ new units per year and our customer base is now 60% first or second generation Canadians, predominantly from Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Most of them start out with a lot (by our standards) of people living together in very modest homes which one would assume they're doing to get everybody a financial toe-hold and then acquire their own single-family homes. Nope - that is not their goal, not at all. When they have the means they buy bigger, better houses in nicer areas where they can all continue to live together because this is their cultural norm and it will never change. And many smaller families buying our bigger product are not doing it with an eye towards expanding their own family with a lot of children. The plan is to be able to accommodate many other family members who are also trying to make it to Canada.

Relatively few of our sales are to first-time buyers that we'd think of as nuclear families (two adults and a child or two). It's already tough financially, and I think only going to get tougher, for them to participate in the real estate market. Their best hope now is to let go of the immediate dream of the 5 bedroom house in suburbia with a triple car garage and a big yard and start out in an apartment condo somewhere. 1,000 ft.sq. modest single-family starter homes are really just not being built anymore.

 

[leebee]

We have a 3br/2ba home, about 2100 sq feet, built in 1912. It's not huge or sprawling, just your basic square box with an addition that was added in 1989. However, it's more than big enough for the 2 of us, which made it easy for DD/SIL and his little boy to move in with us for three years while she finished grad school and they saved money. They finally moved into their own home this past spring (after a LOT of reno work... it's not like they have a huge budget or anything) so we are again kicking around in a big, mostly empty house. However, we have had a grad student living with us for the summer and it's working out very well, so we might consider finding another tenant when our current one leaves. We wouldn't rent to someone we don't know as we are sharing the kitchen and family room spaces with them, but the two times we've done this it's worked out well, so we would consider doing it again. As much as we look at smaller houses, or ranch houses, even after selling this house we'd still need a mortgage to purchase something in this area, and I'm not loving the idea of giving up our current 2.99% rate for a newer mortgage with a 6.5+% rate, so we'll be here a while. Occasionally we talk about converting the big, formal living room into a bedroom, making the existing dining room into an accessible bathroom with laundry/storage, and DH and I could move onto the first floor, if needed, as we age. That'd still leave us with 3 empty bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a laundry room unoccupied, but, well... we'll see how everything shakes out. Time (and finances) will tell, I guess.

 

[PollyannaMom]

In the meantime Covid very nicely scared multiple generations of Americans who look at a house and say “what if we had to work from home and teach the kids for a year plus and no one can go anywhere?” So that should keep big houses in favor for sometime (market crash not withstanding obviously).

That's true. I was never a "bathroom for every bedroom" type of person (too much cleaning!) - but now I get it.

 

[ronandannette]

That's true. I was never a "bathroom for every bedroom" type of person (too much cleaning!) - but now I get it.

Sure, it's nice to have that but hardly a necessity and maybe in the current economy, simply not going to be attainable for everybody going forward. Our expectations of so many things have followed a constant-upward trajectory for three generations now. It's just not happening for our kids.