tor said:
If I had a penny for every time somone posted that it is going to be hard to get a res because of more rooms being added I would be very rich. Yet it still doesn't seem to be the case there are always opportunities to stay at all the resorts. The BCV people don't always stay there every time they try different resorts or cruises or adventures leaving rooms open and there are last minute cancellations. But feel free to overpay for an overrated resort like the BCV and maybe Disney will give you the right of first refusal to buy back in 2042.
This was probably four years ago - it was before SSR opened - when the debate wasn't about the twelve extra years, but about the far lower dues OKW had.
There was a poster on this board, who I haven't seen much of anymore. We had a thread about owning OKW and staying at BCV. The thread itself was strange, it had more to do with the dues discrepency and was it fair that there were people who exclusively used the high dues resorts while paying lower dues at OKW.
This poster (I'm not naming names) was adamant that owning at OKW was the best possible option. He (or she - not sure of gender) ALWAYS got exactly the room they wanted at BCV at the lowest possible dues price. This made, by far, the most financial sense. I recall this poster being an accountant, and threw up all the proper ROI numbers to prove their case - which was a very good case as long as the premise (they always got the room they wanted) held.
About eighteen months after the conversation, that poster quietly inquired about ROFR pricing at BCV and purchased at BCV contract. Since they did it quietly, I don't know the reason....but I'd imagine ALWAYS fell through. 'Cause OKW dues didn't go up that much, and they DID have a very good case.
I hate to see (and I've seen it about four times in my years here), people who invest in one resort to resell it and buy a different resort - having been told they won't have an issue booking seven months out and then discovering that it does make a difference. Maybe they have discovered that home is where your heart is and that, while they usually get what they want, they want to own what they want (the case for a few - including one that dumped the small harder to book VWL for the larger, easier to book OKW). Maybe they discover that they can get what they want with the wait list, but they aren't waitlist people. Maybe they aren't great calendar watchers, and seven months turns into five and a half and there is no room at the inn. Or maybe they are someone who actually got frozen out at seven months.
If you don't have your heart set on a certain resort, buy for cheap dues or twelve extra years. If your heart is set - you are in for disappointment somewhere along the way.
Will there ALWAYS be BCV members who use their points other places? Sure. But there will ALWAYS be other members want to stay at BCV (or somewhere else). And the
DVC membership has doubled since I joined - that's twice as many people potentially wanting those 200 or so rooms. For a while we were getting two posts a week from people asking if they should by at SSR "but we always want to stay at BCV." (It was overwhelmingly BCV). That tells me something about how many more people are going to want those 200 or so rooms. Only a small subset of DVC owners find us before purchase.
I'll add a note here that gives a little perspective. I don't believe that owning DVC if money is tight is wise. So the $1500 of 150 points at $10 per should be "so what." The extra dues should be "eh." That money is so little compared to the overall cost of committing to WDW vacations that it shouldn't factor. I know a lot of people don't agree with me and a lot of people here own when money is tight and it works fine with them.
Now, would I pay a $10 premium for BCV? - no. I'm not that enamoured of Storm Along Bay - which is its only real advantage to me over any other resort. Its a really cool pool, but my kids will have about three trips were they really would use it, starting probably this next year. Three trips worth is not worth the $10 premium for me. If I were buying today, I'd buy OKW resale - great point value, big rooms - and they have the pool slide now that discouraged my first purchase. I'd give up walking to Epcot, which I love - but save a bunch over the BWV contract I own - and I'm frugal. And my favorite resort is VWL for theming. I wouldn't even consider an SSR contract (or HH or VB). I have no interest in staying at those resorts, the twelve extra years is meaningless to me, and I don't like SSR. I love AKL - and I'm anxious to see what DVC does there, but I don't think I'd wait for it. But that is me.
