Likelihood of Getting 4th FP for FOP

[mamateacher]

We weren't going to visit AK this time around, but with only a few days away from our trip, we are contemplating visiting for half a day. What is the likelihood of obtaining a 4th FP for FOP?

Thank you!

UPDATE: Well, I got a 4th FP today for FOP so it can be done!! At my last FP at 11:00 at Hollywood Studios, I checked and there were none for FOP but I refreshed the app and 3 different times came up. We snagged the 3:20! I was in disbelief until we actually got on (there was always a 2 hour wait) but we did!!

 

[randumb0]

0.5%

 

[mom2rtk]

Slim and his good friend none.

 

[KrazeeK120]

0.5%

This.

 

[AngiTN]

0.5%

This is even being very optimistic about the chances too

 

[CAS239]

0.001%

People struggle to get it 60+ days out

 

[Tomh]

We couldn't get it at 60 days . . . oddly enough though, 3 popped up at 47 days, so I guess anything is possible, but I would say it is extremely unlikely.

 

[lovethattink]

Unlikely.

 

[anomamatt]

It's likely happened before. But no reports here. I'd say 0.1% chance or less. 1 guest in 1000 actively looking for FOP day-of FPs probably gets one? Seems about right.

Something going against anyone getting a day-of FOP FP is that popular FPs when dropped day of, most often do not seem to make it back to the general FP pool.

 

[hakepb]

It can happen. I lucked into a 7DMT FP+ as a 5th FP+ on Christmas Eve 2014 (back when it was the hottest FP+)
... but it will require huge amounts of

 

[TXAKDisneyFan]

We weren't going to visit AK this time around, but with only a few days away from our trip, we are contemplating visiting for half a day. What is the likelihood of obtaining a 4th FP for FOP? We are going in early August.

Thank you!

The ride is amazing. Go either first thing or very late (I'm not sure what AK hours are in August). The shortest wait time we saw this past month was 90 mins (longest was I think 160). I'd wait 90 for it.

 

[Klayfish]

As I've mentioned in other threads, I got a FOP FP+ less than 24 hours in advance (I was on MDE around 8 or 9pm and got it for 5pm the next day). However, I do agree that was a huge amount of and it took a lot of stalking to get it. To get one even shorter advance, such as a 4th FP+, would be even harder...darn near impossible I'd bet.

Na'vi can be done as a 4th with a lot of persistence.

 

[DaisyJ]

Zero chance.

 

[robl45]

The ride is amazing. Go either first thing or very late (I'm not sure what AK hours are in August). The shortest wait time we saw this past month was 90 mins (longest was I think 160). I'd wait 90 for it.

Not me frankly. I"m not sure why people think its so amazing. Its good, but not 90 minutes good.

 

[rlduvall]

Don't forget to check the day of also. I had been trying for weeks to change our 7:00 p.m. FOP for earlier in the day. Around 11:00 a.m. on that day a bunch of times popped up, i.e. 1:30, 2:30, 3:30. Other people here on the boards mentioned it occurring for them also around that same timeframe; but only on the day of.

 

[bryanb]

THe queue is amazing. When I was a kid, theme parks were all about waiting in line and we didn't mind it. I sound like an old man saying this but kids have it good these days. As a brand new ride, 90 minutes would be a very good wait time.

 

[sharonabe]

THe queue is amazing. When I was a kid, theme parks were all about waiting in line and we didn't mind it. I sound like an old man saying this but kids have it good these days. As a brand new ride, 90 minutes would be a very good wait time.

Don't they though??!! I have a VERY vivid memory of waiting in the Jungle Cruise line at Disneyland for an hour when I was probably 9 or 10. Of course, back then we also had ticket books and had to choose which rides we wanted to do within each category. Since we only had 10-12 tickets (don't really remember), we didn't really mind waiting in line; it was just part of the Disneyland experience.

 

[MagicPlanning]

Buy a lottery ticket instead. Your chances are better.

 

[wdw&sonny]

I'd say more like one in a million....

 

[ucfknight]

What is the likelihood of obtaining a 4th FP for FOP? We are going in early August.

How many rabbits' feet do you own? Have you found a bunch of 4 leaf clovers recently? Will you be carrying a backpack full of horseshoes?