Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[Genie+]

I bought PVB 4 year ago….have never stayed there. Have been to CCV, BLT, AKL, VGF, OKW…all but OKW more than once. I’ve made almost all of my bookings at 60 days or less. I added a small VGF contract because that is my favorite spot…and just sold my PVB because I hate the use year Sept and I don’t like things being so tight for August travel.

Am currently trying to add at any of the 2060+ resorts to make up for the sold points but all these restrictions and losing 1/2 the resorts in 2042 has me really considering direct if a good promo comes through.

These are the same reasons we finally decided to go direct. Restrictions definitely changed the game. I could’ve lived without the direct benefits. It was the future access we didn’t want to gamble on. These contracts are long and not exactly cheap. I want to love using it, not looking over the fence at somewhere off limits lol. So we went ahead and bought in VGF’s summer deal and the direct benefits have already been fun. We visited the DL lounge, EP lounge, Wicked Winddown and made too much use of those food/merch discounts already! Lol.

 

[EYL]

Even if you buy the resort you want, say the Beach Club, the trust could make it even more competitive at the 11 month mark, right?

Not sure... If I understand the way the Trust works, for every Unit put into the Trust, its associated points are in the Trust. So if 50% of the Beach Club is in the trust, then 50% of the points are in there too. If you bought the Beach Club, you have a higher percent of the total points, but fewer units to choose from. So the competition should be the same...?

Now, if you were in the Trust it would be a different story... If 50% of the Beach Club points are only a small part of the Trust and let's say SSR and OKW constitutes a large portion, then you would have a lot of points to compete for the Beach Club.

I see this as DVC controlling the 7 month window, where points are valid everywhere, but instead giving everyone an 11 month window within the Trust.

 

[intamin]

No mistakes here. I own no points now.

I'm content with where my points are so no mistakes either It's why I didn't jump on the buy Poly resale now before it shoots up bandwagon. Like I said beforehand, until I see it written on paper and filed, I'm not purchasing anything regarding Poly. Not like I'm really in a position to anyways or have a need for it for the time being

 

[SL6827]

Not sure... If I understand the way the Trust works, for every Unit put into the Trust, its associated points are in the Trust. So if 50% of the Beach Club is in the trust, then 50% of the points are in there too. If you bought the Beach Club, you have a higher percent of the total points, but fewer units to choose from. So the competition should be the same...?

Now, if you were in the Trust it would be a different story... If 50% of the Beach Club points are only a small part of the Trust and let's say SSR and OKW constitutes a large portion, then you would have a lot of points to compete for the Beach Club.

I see this as DVC controlling the 7 month window, where points are valid everywhere, but instead giving everyone an 11 month window within the Trust.

I really have no idea. Never heard of such before. Who knows for sure how that will work.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

If new builds go primarily/entirely into the trust, I think that would make many of them extremely difficult (if not impossible) to book at 7m, especially for longer stays or at popular times. One potential consequence is that people who bought direct at RIV/VDH/VGF/AUL lately for unrestricted access might not actually be able to get the newest properties anyway.

 

[Sandisw]

Even if you buy the resort you want, say the Beach Club, the trust could make it even more competitive at the 11 month mark, right?

Based on everything I have been reading, I’m 99% confident that they can not put fractional ownership units into the trust.

Thst leaves out sold out resorts.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

One potential consequence is that people who bought direct at RIV/VDH/VGF/AUL lately for unrestricted access might not actually be able to get the newest properties anyway.

This should be no different than it currently is at 7mo, no, or if it is, marginally so? There will always be people trying to move stuff at 7mo, especially for trust owners who will only have access to a few resorts for the foreseeable future (I’m guessing it’ll only be CFW and Poly tower in some capacity for the next few years, at least) and want to stay at any of the current resorts, which I’m sure many will. So I think our chances won’t be that much worse than it is now but maybe that’s naive thinking

 

[Cfabar1]

These are the same reasons we finally decided to go direct. Restrictions definitely changed the game. I could’ve lived without the direct benefits. It was the future access we didn’t want to gamble on. These contracts are long and not exactly cheap. I want to love using it, not looking over the fence at somewhere off limits lol. So we went ahead and bought in VGF’s summer deal and the direct benefits have already been fun. We visited the DL lounge, EP lounge, Wicked Winddown and made too much use of those food/merch discounts already! Lol.

Yes, but the trust may essentially limit our ability to access future resorts anyways. If they can all book each other at 11 months, what will be left for us is the SSR-equivalents of the trust. That is how Disney is going to force people's hands to go in the trust...

That's my fear anyways. At this point, I am operating under the assumption at least over the long haul, all resorts will in essence be restricted, so buy somewhere you want to use your points...

Got to start saving up for another 200 points at VGF!

 

[Cfabar1]

This should be no different than it currently is at 7mo, no, or if it is, marginally so? There will always be people trying to move stuff at 7mo, especially for trust owners who will only have access to a few resorts for the foreseeable future (I’m guessing it’ll only be CFW and Poly tower in some capacity for the next few years, at least) and want to stay at any of the current resorts, which I’m sure many will. So I think our chances won’t be that much worse than it is now but maybe that’s naive thinking

At first maybe, but in practice probably not....

You're assuming all the resorts will have equal desirability. As soon as some resorts are less desirable than others, the trust owners will all reserve there during the 11 month window (if that's how this goes), and leave their resorts that they didn't want to stay in available at 7 months.

Think of it like AKV Kilimanjaro/Value units. They are tough to get at 11 months for owners, they are impossible to get at 7 months for non-owners. This trend I think would be exacerbated because the trust users would gobble up the in-demand/desirable rooms since they get a 4 month advantage, even though their ability to do so might be based on an undesirable property.

 

[intamin]

Yes, but the trust may essentially limit our ability to access future resorts anyways. If they can all book each other at 11 months, what will be left for us is the SSR-equivalents of the trust. That is how Disney is going to force people's hands to go in the trust...

That's my fear anyways. At this point, I am operating under the assumption at least over the long haul, all resorts will in essence be restricted, so buy somewhere you want to use your points...

Got to start saving up for another 200 points at VGF!

I don’t think the phrase buy where you want to stay has ever been more important than it is now.

 

[Sandisw]

Yes, but the trust may essentially limit our ability to access future resorts anyways. If they can all book each other at 11 months, what will be left for us is the SSR-equivalents of the trust. That is how Disney is going to force people's hands to go in the trust...

That's my fear anyways. At this point, I am operating under the assumption at least over the long haul, all resorts will in essence be restricted, so buy somewhere you want to use your points...

Got to start saving up for another 200 points at VGF!

I do have to wonder if they decide to make this the new way of DVC and eventually, the use of BVTC won’t be needed…granted, long long time away.

But, direct will always get access to other resorts…but thst is quite a bit different than how easy it will be to trade.

Not much different than today, as it is much harder to trade at 7 months to near park resorts than it was when I joined 15 years ago.

 

[Genie+]

We need a new poll for our speculation on how the Poly Tower will likely join DVC!

What percent chance between new and separate association/mixed association/current single association?

100% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 0% current single association

0% new and separate association / 100% mixed association / 0% current single association

0% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 100% current single association

80% new and separate association / 10% mixed association /10 % current single association

10% new and separate association / 80% mixed association / 10% current single association

60% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 20% current single association

20% new and separate association / 60% mixed association / 20% current single association

20% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 60% current single association

40% new and separate association / 30% mixed association / 30% current single association

30% new and separate association / 40% mixed association / 30% current single association

30% new and separate association / 30% mixed association / 40% current single association

33% new and separate association / 33% mixed association / 33% current single association

80% new and separate association / 15% mixed association / 5% current single association

15% new and separate association / 80% mixed association / 5% current single association

5% new and separate association / 15% mixed association / 80% current single association

60% new and separate association / 30% mixed association / 10% current single association

30% new and separate association / 60% mixed association / 10% current single association

10% new and separate association / 30% mixed association / 60% current single association

40% new and separate association / 40% mixed association / 20% current single association

40% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 40% current single association

20% new and separate association / 40% mixed association / 40% current single association

50% new and separate association / 50% mixed association / 0% current single association

50% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 50% current single association

50% new and separate association / 50% mixed association / 0% current single association

0% new and separate association / 50% mixed association / 50% current single association

0% new and separate association / 80% mixed association / 20% current single association

80% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 0% current single association

20% new and separate association / 80% mixed association / 0% current single association

0% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 80% current single association

0% new and separate association / 60% mixed association / 40% current single association

60% new and separate association / 40% mixed association / 0% current single association

40% new and separate association / 60% mixed association / 0% current single association

40% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 60% current single association

60% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 40% current single association

5% new and separate association / 5% mixed association / 90% current single association

5% new and separate association / 90% mixed association / 5% current single association

90% new and separate association / 5% mixed association / 5% current single association

 

[njcoach24]

I don’t think the phrase buy where you want to stay has ever been more important than it is now.

I agree more so with this than before because to me once the 2042’s get knocked off the board, resale will have very limited access.

I want Poly but I have a feeling if pool is shared and transportation is shared than that place will be not as quaint as it may have been.

I may buy more VGF resale once more people start selling.

 

[tom1944]

I figure where I want to stay after 2042 will be much different than where I want to stay in 2024.

 

[Sandisw]

View attachment 823430

We need a new poll for our speculation on how the Poly Tower will likely join DVC!

What percent chance between new and separate association/mixed association/current single association?

100% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 0% current single association

0% new and separate association / 100% mixed association / 0% current single association

0% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 100% current single association

80% new and separate association / 10% mixed association /10 % current single association

10% new and separate association / 80% mixed association / 10% current single association

60% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 20% current single association

20% new and separate association / 60% mixed association / 20% current single association

20% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 60% current single association

40% new and separate association / 30% mixed association / 30% current single association

30% new and separate association / 40% mixed association / 30% current single association

30% new and separate association / 30% mixed association / 40% current single association

33% new and separate association / 33% mixed association / 33% current single association

80% new and separate association / 15% mixed association / 5% current single association

15% new and separate association / 80% mixed association / 5% current single association

5% new and separate association / 15% mixed association / 80% current single association

60% new and separate association / 30% mixed association / 10% current single association

30% new and separate association / 60% mixed association / 10% current single association

10% new and separate association / 30% mixed association / 60% current single association

40% new and separate association / 40% mixed association / 20% current single association

40% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 40% current single association

20% new and separate association / 40% mixed association / 40% current single association

50% new and separate association / 50% mixed association / 0% current single association

50% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 50% current single association

50% new and separate association / 50% mixed association / 0% current single association

0% new and separate association / 50% mixed association / 50% current single association

0% new and separate association / 80% mixed association / 20% current single association

80% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 0% current single association

20% new and separate association / 80% mixed association / 0% current single association

0% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 80% current single association

0% new and separate association / 60% mixed association / 40% current single association

60% new and separate association / 40% mixed association / 0% current single association

40% new and separate association / 60% mixed association / 0% current single association

40% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 60% current single association

60% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 40% current single association

5% new and separate association / 5% mixed association / 90% current single association

5% new and separate association / 90% mixed association / 5% current single association

90% new and separate association / 5% mixed association / 5% current single association

Hahahaha! Love it!

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

At first maybe, but in practice probably not....

You're assuming all the resorts will have equal desirability. As soon as some resorts are less desirable than others, the trust owners will all reserve there during the 11 month window (if that's how this goes), and leave their resorts that they didn't want to stay in available at 7 months.

Think of it like AKV Kilimanjaro/Value units. They are tough to get at 11 months for owners, they are impossible to get at 7 months for non-owners. This trend I think would be exacerbated because the trust users would gobble up the in-demand/desirable rooms since they get a 4 month advantage, even though their ability to do so might be based on an undesirable property.

This is very fair. Although I don’t assume equal desirability, I know Poly will be more popular than CFW and therefore mostly, if not fully, booked at 7mos. But I also know that if I stalk enough I can get a few nights at one of the more difficult to book hotels (BCV/BWV) at 7mos, even more so during less desirable times and more point heavy room, definitely not ideal, but that’s what I’m imagining it’ll be like.

I also agree with what others have said though and that by 2042, the entire landscape of DVC will be very different and I think many of us will probably have already purchased into the trust for some resort or another that they add so it might not matter anyway? But like I said I could be very naive and hopeful in my thinking.

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

View attachment 823430

We need a new poll for our speculation on how the Poly Tower will likely join DVC!

What percent chance between new and separate association/mixed association/current single association?

100% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 0% current single association

0% new and separate association / 100% mixed association / 0% current single association

0% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 100% current single association

80% new and separate association / 10% mixed association /10 % current single association

10% new and separate association / 80% mixed association / 10% current single association

60% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 20% current single association

20% new and separate association / 60% mixed association / 20% current single association

20% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 60% current single association

40% new and separate association / 30% mixed association / 30% current single association

30% new and separate association / 40% mixed association / 30% current single association

30% new and separate association / 30% mixed association / 40% current single association

33% new and separate association / 33% mixed association / 33% current single association

80% new and separate association / 15% mixed association / 5% current single association

15% new and separate association / 80% mixed association / 5% current single association

5% new and separate association / 15% mixed association / 80% current single association

60% new and separate association / 30% mixed association / 10% current single association

30% new and separate association / 60% mixed association / 10% current single association

10% new and separate association / 30% mixed association / 60% current single association

40% new and separate association / 40% mixed association / 20% current single association

40% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 40% current single association

20% new and separate association / 40% mixed association / 40% current single association

50% new and separate association / 50% mixed association / 0% current single association

50% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 50% current single association

50% new and separate association / 50% mixed association / 0% current single association

0% new and separate association / 50% mixed association / 50% current single association

0% new and separate association / 80% mixed association / 20% current single association

80% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 0% current single association

20% new and separate association / 80% mixed association / 0% current single association

0% new and separate association / 20% mixed association / 80% current single association

0% new and separate association / 60% mixed association / 40% current single association

60% new and separate association / 40% mixed association / 0% current single association

40% new and separate association / 60% mixed association / 0% current single association

40% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 60% current single association

60% new and separate association / 0% mixed association / 40% current single association

5% new and separate association / 5% mixed association / 90% current single association

5% new and separate association / 90% mixed association / 5% current single association

90% new and separate association / 5% mixed association / 5% current single association

This hurts my head.

 

[Genie+]

This hurts my head.

No guess then?

Just within today I’ve changed my speculation on likelihood:
45% mixed association, 45% same/single, 10% new/different

So this poll might need a few more options lol.

 

[DonMacGregor]

This is the question that allows them to kinda say its in the same association...but I 100% see it with restrictions and as a trust.

See, I don't see them doing any sort of semantic or logical gymnastics, just to say "Yvonne wasn't lying". They'll just make it a new association, put it in the trust, avoid all of the convoluted machinations explored in this thread, and simply say "Yvonne specifically said "currently". That was then, this is now".

Or, they won't say anything.

Keeping it in the same association, legally, semantically, whatever, serves absolutely no functional purpose and provides no one with any tangible benefit.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

See, I don't see them doing any sort of semantic or logical gymnastics, just to say "Yvonne wasn't lying". They'll just make it a new association, put it in the trust, avoid all of the convoluted machinations explored in this thread, and simply say "Yvonne specifically said "currently". That was then, this is now".

Or, they won't say anything.

Keeping it in the same association, legally, semantically, whatever, serves absolutely no functional purpose and provides no one with any tangible benefit.

I disagree. I think Disney may make it PVB and then sell all or most of it through the new trust—allowing them to sell trust points to people who love the longhouses and bungalows. They can also pack the trust with CFW and RIV and Aulani, but will have enough PVB that they can also advertise monorail resort access as a credible option.