Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[DanCali]

The driving factor has always been price per point. It wasn't that long ago that RIV was outselling VGF.

But, speaking of price per point, would it also be fair to say that when it was actually outselling VGF (hasn't happened since 2022) the resale price per point for Riviera was about $15-$20 higher than it is today? That would also make the "direct premium" smaller and less painful, as it has been with VGF in the summer.

My main point is that if those Riviera resale prices keep drifting down (and disproportionately to other resorts), more "educated buyers" will hesitate about going direct both with Riviera as well as Poly2 and any future restricted resorts.

 

[Sandisw]

But, speaking of price per point, would it also be fair to say that when it was actually outselling VGF (hasn't happened since 2022) the resale price per point for Riviera was about $15-$20 higher than it is today? That would also make the "direct premium" smaller and less painful, as it has been with VGF in the summer.

My main point is that if those Riviera resale prices keep drifting down (and disproportionately to other resorts), more "educated buyers" will hesitate about going direct both with Riviera as well as Poly2 and any future restricted resorts.

Honestly, I really don’t believe the majority of buyers think about resale value when buying.

Some of the downward trend of resale, including. RIV, has been the economy. Almost all resorts are $10 to $20…and some even more than that..less on resale than in 2022.

 

[maui22]

It's not about there being tens of millions with access at 7 months, it's about excluding resale only owners from being able to book there and increasing the perceived value of buying direct which Disney has been dead set on creating a class system between direct and resale for years.

Discounts, lounges, Moonlight Magic all PALE in comparison compared to locking people out of new resorts. If the only thing I were losing was 10% off my Mickey bar and a 1 cent cup of soda I would never buy direct. The access to new resorts however DO make me care about buying direct.

I think we may be talking about two different things. When it comes to tower booking, there will be a tiny window for owners to book. Then, it's 100% about those with access to book. Vast majority of the roughly 75 million DVC points will be able to book and fill up the resort.

To someone new or who doesn't have unrestricted points, I agree it's nice to be able to stay at all resorts and to get access to perks are beneficial. In time, I believe Disney will go to even larger tiered perks and also offer ability to turn restricted to unrestricted for a fee (seems to be a trend in timeshares).

If ability to book all new resorts are a deciding factor? Always buying direct at the going rate makes sense.
Hopefully, Disney doesn't decide to implement some tiered resort system as some want CFW to not be part of the existing system. Disney could also implement a much larger tiered system where someone is required to own ___ direct points for A perks, must own more points A+B perks, ...

We should all be comfortable with what we buy at the time we sign the contract because things can change.

 

[Roughians_satchel]

I personally believe DVD could have decided between VGF or Riveria to heavily discount to reach sold out status. It is obvious they want VGF sold out by next year. The question has to be why VGF? Fewer points left to sale, possible. My hunch has to do with it being the only WDW resort in active sales without restrictions. If you take that one away, that leaves only WDW DVC resorts left in active sales with the latest round of restrictions. In my mind this indicates POLY2 playing by the same rules as every other new construction (having the latest restrictions/ separate associations). If not, I believe FW cabins and riveria sales will slow unless they are heavily discounted or POLY2 is priced at a premium to be apart of the same association.

It’s not as micro as what sales Poly2 the best but I believe it will be a macro decision. What will sell ALL active listings the best at the highest price per point possible.

Actually I think it's the opposite. Adding on VGF gave DVD away to sell DIRECT points into an original 14 resorts and compete directly with resale. Before, they might get people who know nothing about DVC coming to them wanting to buy into VGF which was in sold out status. It was then on the sales agent to try to steer them to an active sale at say Riviera or pay the high direct pricing if the points were even available. If the customer had their heart set on VGF - they may go home, do a little research and find the resale market.

Having a resort in active sales that is unrestricted is actually a plus to DVD - gives them more options to have you buy direct. I don't think they're in some rush to have them all restricted - given that the unrestricted resorts are still going to be around for decades.

 

[Hubalorian]

Actually I think it's the opposite. Adding on VGF gave DVD away to sell DIRECT points into an original 14 resorts and compete directly with resale. Before, they might get people who know nothing about DVC coming to them wanting to buy into VGF which was in sold out status. It was then on the sales agent to try to steer them to an active sale at say Riviera or pay the high direct pricing if the points were even available. If the customer had their heart set on VGF - they may go home, do a little research and find the resale market.

Having a resort in active sales that is unrestricted is actually a plus to DVD - gives them more options to have you buy direct. I don't think they're in some rush to have them all restricted - given that the unrestricted resorts are still going to be around for decades.

Why were they in such a hurry to sell out VGF then?

It is clear, painfully clear that with how aggressive VGF was priced, it hurt Riveria and VDH sales. To me, it wasn’t about competing with a resale market, it was about getting VGF to sold out status as quickly as possible.

 

[DanCali]

Honestly, I really don’t believe the majority of buyers think about resale value when buying.

Those who buy direct because they don't know about resale won't really change. But whether it's a minority of 49%, 30%, or 10% of prospective buyers who don't buy direct because the resale restrictions decimate resale value over time it still matters to the bottom line. For it to "work" (from DVC's perspective), you need to have enough people who offset those lost sales by switching and buying direct instead of restricted resale.

We're both probably projecting from the way we think about a direct purchase. You probably don't care about resale value at all when you buy direct, and to me it's literally the #1 factor in my consideration. The reality may be somewhere in the middle - it's probably fewer people than I think but more people than you might think who consider resale values when buying direct.

 

[tidefan]

Those who buy direct because they don't know about resale won't really change. But whether it's a minority of 49%, 30%, or 10% of prospective buyers who don't buy direct because the resale restrictions decimate resale value over time it still matters to the bottom line. For it to "work" (from DVC's perspective), you need to have enough people who offset those lost sales by switching and buying direct instead of restricted resale.

We're both probably projecting from the way we think about a direct purchase. You probably don't care about resale value at all when you buy direct, and to me it's literally the #1 factor in my consideration. The reality may be somewhere in the middle - it's probably fewer people than I think but more people than you might think who consider resale values when buying direct.

I 100% agree with this. The resale restrictions will very much hurt any residual value that my contract may have. This is especially true at a niche product such as the Cabins. Would there be a huge market to buy that contract if I had to get out, knowing that the purchaser could ONLY use those points on the cabins? Not only does that affect that potential buyer, but it very much affects me as a seller as my residual value is now much less than it used to be in the old system.

This makes me value my initial direct purchase decision quite a bit. I, for one, am not going to pay top dollar prices for a restricted property.

I actually think this (and the TAT) are very much impacting VDH sales. The people that were going to buy there have already bought. It is a much tougher sell to the the casual purchaser.

If restrictions are put in place on all the new properties, it will be interesting to see if Aulani sales pick up, as it would be the only unrestricted property left.

 

[DanCali]

If restrictions are put in place on all the new properties, it will be interesting to see if Aulani sales pick up, as it would be the only unrestricted property left.

Now sure we'd know...Is there any website tracking Aulani direct sales? Those deeds at the Hawaii Bureau of Conveyances are harder to track than the ones recorded in FL.

 

[Sandisw]

Now sure we'd know...Is there any website tracking Aulani direct sales? Those deeds at the Hawaii Bureau of Conveyances are harder to track than the ones recorded in FL.

No because people said it’s fee based so no way to know.

 

[NicoleBold]

I bought VGF direct in 2022. The two biggest reasons I went VGF over Riv was resale restrictions and dues (I know this part could change, but starting at a lower base point seemed important). I've only stayed at BLT, Poly and AKL so far. My personal feelings about VGF or Riv had nothing to do with that financial transaction. VGF was undoubtedly the better deal. If you don't think about resale value when buying a 30k+ timeshare with 40-50 years of maintenance fees, you are financially doing it wrong. It absolutely makes sense to pick the unrestricted resort. I think that HAS to be why they sold VGF at such a great deal this summer and probably an indicator that Poly 2 should be a new association.

 

[KimMcGowan]

Unpopular opinion I am sure, I think Disney had to make GF cheaper than Riviera. Why? I know it is the flagship resort - but I personally don’t like it very much. The recent update did wonders, I no longer feel like I am staying at Grandma’s but the all-around atmosphere and paper thin walls make this resort a sold no for me most of the time. I think more people than you think may agree with me. (However, that is not even the prevailing opinion in my own family- my girls (3) all love the Grand.). After the hardcore fans bought it may be a hard sell with the (spectacular - even with restrictions ) Riviera available.

 

[BrianLo]

If restrictions are put in place on all the new properties, it will be interesting to see if Aulani sales pick up, as it would be the only unrestricted property left.

I'm having trouble following your logic. Direct purchased points aren't restricted for any resort. All resale points are restricted to various degrees.

The only weak argument (when making a direct purchase decision) about not wanting resorts beyond the O14, is that they will have terrible resale value. But... we already clearly know Aulani is commanding the cheapest resale pricing, regardless of its only partially restricted resale status.

So why would it change anything from a direct purchaser lens? Sometimes I think the angst over the existence of restrictions causes people to lose the thread that it is hurting Disney and will cause them to roll it back. Unfortunately, it isn't hurting Disney.

 

[tidefan]

I'm having trouble following your logic. Direct purchased points aren't restricted for any resort. All resale points are restricted to various degrees.

The only weak argument (when making a direct purchase decision) about not wanting resorts beyond the O14, is that they will have terrible resale value. But... we already clearly know Aulani is commanding the cheapest resale pricing, regardless of its only partially restricted resale status.

So why would it change anything from a direct purchaser lens? Sometimes I think the angst over the existence of restrictions causes people to lose the thread that it is hurting Disney and will cause them to roll it back. Unfortunately, it isn't hurting Disney.

Because a purchase at Aulani, if you had to sell, would allow whomever you sold to access to the O14 resorts. While I know most people claims "they are never going to sell", yet there are always resale listings, so for whatever reasons they may have, people are always selling. I never planned on selling my points either (though what happened at VGF has us considering unloading our points there, as it is harder now to get the Deluxe Studios and we have no desire for the hotel rooms), but you never know what the future holds, and our situation a year or two, or five, or ten down the road could be completely different. I'd want the best out I could get.

Resale at a restricted property would only give you access to that property, such as RIV, which to us is just "meh"...

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I get that many people don’t do all the math, but it’s much riskier (financially) to justify buying VDH, Cabins, or RIV at current prices (vs renting points or staying in a hotel) if you’re not assuming they maintain decent value in 5-10 years if something goes catastrophically wrong in your financial situation or your family changes and no longer wants to spend at least 30 days each decade at the DVC resorts. If VDH books out in advance like VGC does, buying resale there will extremely risky for folks who can’t consistently plan trips at least 8-10 months out (and sometimes 11), that will be true for RIV and any other restricted resorts as well. If they price the cabins cheaper per point I could see them booking out far in advance also.

If we eventually stay at RIV and love it, I might consider paying $25-50 or less per point for its restricted resale points than unrestricted resorts, but I still think resale buyers who do the math will subjectively price it significantly below VGF and CCV and PVB for the next decade or two, maybe longer.

 

[Sandisw]

Because a purchase at Aulani, if you had to sell, would allow whomever you sold to access to the O14 resorts. While I know most people claims "they are never going to sell", yet there are always resale listings, so for whatever reasons they may have, people are always selling. I never planned on selling my points either (though what happened at VGF has us considering unloading our points there, as it is harder now to get the Deluxe Studios and we have no desire for the hotel rooms), but you never know what the future holds, and our situation a year or two, or five, or ten down the road could be completely different. I'd want the best out I could get.

Resale at a restricted property would only give you access to that property, such as RIV, which to us is just "meh"...

Except, AUL resale is already lower than RIV resale…so, if someone is choosing a direct option for primarily a use at WDW, not sure why one would buy an offsite resort that is selling for less resale, assuming they care about resale value.

We already see several resorts sell for less that RIV that have access to all…not sure that is going to change anytime soon.

 

[Sandisw]

I get that many people don’t do all the math, but it’s much riskier (financially) to justify buying VDH, Cabins, or RIV at current prices (vs renting points or staying in a hotel) if you’re not assuming they maintain decent value in 5-10 years if something goes catastrophically wrong in your financial situation or your family changes and no longer wants to spend at least 30 days each decade at the DVC resorts. If VDH books out in advance like VGC does, buying resale there will extremely risky for folks who can’t consistently plan trips at least 8-10 months out (and sometimes 11), that will be true for RIV and any other restricted resorts as well. If they price the cabins cheaper per point I could see them booking out far in advance also.

If we eventually stay at RIV and love it, I might consider paying $25-50 or less per point for its restricted resale points than unrestricted resorts, but I still think resale buyers who do the math will subjectively price it significantly below VGF and CCV and PVB for the next decade or two, maybe longer.

This is where we differ with buying DVC…just don’t think anyone should go in needing or wanting a certain level of return if one wants to sell sooner rather than later.

There will be a smaller buyer pool for a restricted resort, but there will still be one…and when a resort is sold out direct, with a sold out price, there is a good chance many buyers will get decent sale price….even if it sells for less than one bought.

In terms of booking, I just don’t see it being an issue…most resorts, based on reports, turn over an average of 1% of points a year and not all of those are direct to resale…some are resale to resale…it’s going to take 20 years for RIV or VDH…or any other restricted resort…to have a meaningful level of points that are stuck there…

Now, I agree that if you own restricted points to one resort, you need to book early, but that’s true for any popular resort as well. The big thing that I think could happen is that DVD will adjust the rules for owners by allowing them to pay a per reservation fee to get a room somewhere.

 

[maui22]

This is where we differ with buying DVC…just don’t think anyone should go in needing or wanting a certain level of return if one wants to sell sooner rather than later.

There will be a smaller buyer pool for a restricted resort, but there will still be one…and when a resort is sold out direct, with a sold out price, there is a good chance many buyers will get decent sale price….even if it sells for less than one bought.

In terms of booking, I just don’t see it being an issue…most resorts, based on reports, turn over an average of 1% of points a year and not all of those are direct to resale…some are resale to resale…it’s going to take 20 years for RIV or VDH…or any other restricted resort…to have a meaningful level of points that are stuck there…

Now, I agree that if you own restricted points to one resort, you need to book early, but that’s true for any popular resort as well. The big thing that I think could happen is that DVD will adjust the rules for owners by allowing them to pay a per reservation fee to get a room somewhere.

Interesting about the 1% turnover.

During the great recession, it seemed like that number was much much higher. From what I recall, those who owned for a long-time were less likely to sell. Those who owned less than 10 years seemed like the ones who were selling.
Probably has something to do with the fact those who own for 10 years are older and more financially stable.

Do people have concerns things may change with interest rates at levels not seen since 2000?
Everyone 40 and under has not experienced these interest rates so they haven't had to restrict budgets. Those of us who lived through the 70s and early 80s had to experience far, far worse.

 

[CraigInPA]

I personally believe DVD could have decided between VGF or Riveria to heavily discount to reach sold out status. It is obvious they want VGF sold out by next year. The question has to be why VGF? Fewer points left to sale, possible. My hunch has to do with it being the only WDW resort in active sales without restrictions. If you take that one away, that leaves only WDW DVC resorts left in active sales with the latest round of restrictions. In my mind this indicates POLY2 playing by the same rules as every other new construction (having the latest restrictions/ separate associations). If not, I believe FW cabins and riveria sales will slow unless they are heavily discounted or POLY2 is priced at a premium to be apart of the same association.

It’s not as micro as what sales Poly2 the best but I believe it will be a macro decision. What will sell ALL active listings the best at the highest price per point possible.

Or, they chose VGF because they're going to come online with the Poly tower and the campground projects in the next 1-2 years, both of which are near VGF.

 

[Sandisw]

Interesting about the 1% turnover.

During the great recession, it seemed like that number was much much higher. From what I recall, those who owned for a long-time were less likely to sell. Those who owned less than 10 years seemed like the ones who were selling.
Probably has something to do with the fact those who own for 10 years are older and more financially stable.

Do people have concerns things may change with interest rates at levels not seen since 2000?
Everyone 40 and under has not experienced these interest rates so they haven't had to restrict budgets. Those of us who lived through the 70s and early 80s had to experience far, far worse.

Again, the turnover we see doesn’t account for how the points are changing hands. 1% is still a lot of contracts changing hands, but when it comes to resale and restricted points, it only matters when a direct owners sells.

For example, I have a direct and resale RIV. If I sold the direct, I add restricted points to the pool. But, if I sell the resale contract, it does nothing except change the owner…those points are already counted as restricted.

Over the years, I have sold many contracts and many of them were bought resale…so, it’s why I think the 1% number has been thrown around because of these types of situations.

 

[skier_pete]

Honestly, I really don’t believe the majority of buyers think about resale value when buying.

Some of the downward trend of resale, including. RIV, has been the economy. Almost all resorts are $10 to $20…and some even more than that..less on resale than in 2022.

I'll agree to this. Many don't consider it. But likely some percent do.