Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[RachStu]

I don’t know - I learned about that hack on the DISboards UOR forum. Twice now we’ve booked a room at a UOR deluxe and not even slept there, because it was cheaper for four or five adults than paying for 2 days of Express Pass, not to mention 2 days of parking. And two days at the UOR parks was enough for us - I’m looking forward to checking out the new one.

This is exactly what we do for our family of five. It’s also much nicer to park in the hotel car park for those two days and use their entrance paths.

 

[mkatsy]

But the MB won't be available since there are no last year points to give (ie double points on purchase). unless they offer to buyback your future year points?
If I buy RIV with a June UY, I get to sell back 2023 and keep 2024. That can't happen at a new property.

They buy the 2024 from you and you either sit out a year, or borrow your 2025 points which leaves you running out of points a year early on the contract.

 

[BeachClub2014]

And, I agree that DVD doesn’t usually buy up contracts to hold. But, I think the only reason right now we have seen them take some…and we aren’t really talking about a ton of points…is to attempt to influence the resale market upward so the difference between resale and direct is as small as they can make it.

You could be correct, but why do that with the Polynesian. If I'm not mistaken, that wouldn't be the norm for DVC. They certainly aren't doing so with Riviera.

 

[Cabius]

You could be correct, but why do that with the Polynesian. If I'm not mistaken, that wouldn't be the norm for DVC. They certainly aren't doing so with Riviera.

There are two big differences, though:

1) RIV is a new sale, without a large pool of existing points available for re-sale. There are more total points at RIV (6.7mm) than PVB (4mm), but in terms of actual points sold, RIV has just passed the 4-million mark in the past few months. I would also argue that owners who bought in the last 2-3 years are less likely to sell than PVB owners who have had it for nearly a decade.

2) More importantly, re-sale restrictions make a RIV direct contract a very different product than RIV re-sale. They can always argue, 'sure you can save money buying resale, but then you can ONLY use those points at RIV, without trading out'. They won't have that argument when selling more PVB, so it becomes a lot harder to justify a big price premium.

 

[Chili327]

borrow your 2025 points which leaves you running out of points a year early on the contract.

Just to clarify, you’d have to borrow your points every year for the rest of the contract to come up short at the end.

 

[BeachClub2014]

There are two big differences, though:

1) RIV is a new sale, without a large pool of existing points available for re-sale. There are more total points at RIV (6.7mm) than PVB (4mm), but in terms of actual points sold, RIV has just passed the 4-million mark in the past few months. I would also argue that owners who bought in the last 2-3 years are less likely to sell than PVB owners who have had it for nearly a decade.

2) More importantly, re-sale restrictions make a RIV direct contract a very different product than RIV re-sale. They can always argue, 'sure you can save money buying resale, but then you can ONLY use those points at RIV, without trading out'. They won't have that argument when selling more PVB, so it becomes a lot harder to justify a big price premium.

I get that. But if the premise behind DVC ROFR'ing PVB points is to prop the resale price closer to the new price to induce direct sales, then the same logic would apply to other resorts they are selling directly, including Riviera. They haven't historically ROFR'd resorts that are (or soon will be) in active sales. So why now?

 

[Sandisw]

You could be correct, but why do that with the Polynesian. If I'm not mistaken, that wouldn't be the norm for DVC. They certainly aren't doing so with Riviera.

RIV is in active sales. Poly tower is different because it is being resold as a new resort after having been sold out. DVD doesn’t worry about the resale price of resorts once they go into sold out status…it’s why you have seen it pretty much absent the past year.

PVB has an established resale price already, before sales even begin.

Plus, resale PVB and direct Poly tower will presumably carry the same rules for use,,, unless DVD somehow figured a way to make them part of the same association but with different rules.

Resale RIv, at least, isn’t the same product. Why buy Poly tower direct at $200/pt if I can’t get the exact same thing resale at $140?

With VGF it was going in the $180s when it went back on sale and could be had in the $190s, once incentives were considered.

It comes down to the fact they are not yet selling Poly tower…so it’s still considered a sold out resort.

It’s resorts in active sales that they don’t take while they are selling.

Once Poly tower actually begins sales, we most likely won’t see any more action.

Basically, this adding new units and selling again means it’s going to be different than a new resort like RIV, VDH, and CFW.

 

[Chili327]

I get that. But if the premise behind DVC ROFR'ing PVB points is to prop the resale price closer to the new price to induce direct sales, then the same logic would apply to other resorts they are selling directly, including Riviera. They haven't historically ROFR'd resorts that are (or soon will be) in active sales. So why now?

Difference is probably the end date.

 

[BeachClub2014]

RIV is in active sales. Poly tower is different because it is being resold as a new resort after having been sold out

That means it has an established resale price. Plus, resale PVB and direct Poly tower will presumably carry the same rules for use,,, unless DVD somehow figured a way to make them part of the same association but with different rules.

Resale RIv, at least, isn’t the same product. Why buy Poly tower direct at $200/pt if I can’t get the exact same thing resale at $140?

But, maybe if it’s $160 vs $200? With VGF it was going in the $180s when it went back on sale and could be had in the $190s, once incentives are considered.

I am clear on the difference between Riviera and Polynesian. I think you have to consider the Poly Tower as new sales given the projected number of points that will be for sale. Why buy Riviera at over $200 if you can buy resale at $120? The logic is the same. And I understand that resale Riviera can only be used there, but if you're buying Riviera directly, you're likely not buying them for SAP.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Difference is probably the end date.

Interesting idea. Tell me more about why that would make a difference.

 

[mkatsy]

Just to clarify, you’d have to borrow your points every year for the rest of the contract to come up short at the end.

Yes, so the magical beginnings is approx. $3,300 less valuable (I can’t remember the exact number) if it is not the previous years points sold back. If you sell the current year’s points you have two choices either sit out a year of points OR borrow points to begin enjoying right now, but you will come up short at the end of the contract. That’s why it very much matters which year they are offering to buy from you.[ I looked up my date to better illustrate what happened. I was in the DVC office June ‘23 and would have accepted a UY of August, September, October, or December as they were all still loaded with 2022 points at that time. They insisted at the last minute that they were only selling March UY and that it was stripped of the 2022 points but I could sell the 2023 points. That’s a $3,300 monetary loss.]

 

[Cabius]

I am clear on the difference between Riviera and Polynesian. I think you have to consider the Poly Tower as new sales given the projected number of points that will be for sale. Why buy Riviera at over $200 if you can buy resale at $120? The logic is the same. And I understand that resale Riviera can only be used there, but if you're buying Riviera directly, you're likely not buying them for SAP.

I think you underestimate how much the re-sale market cares about resale restrictions.

It's only true that "the logic is the same" is you totally discount the impact of re-sale restrictions. As you say, you understand that the restrictions exist, but you seem to dismiss the idea that it actually impacts the value of the product, because you just wouldn't exchange those points. And that's great: if you don't care about having the flexibility to exchange your re-sale points, then you can get some great value in those contracts!

But the whole reason that Disney introduced those restrictions is that they determined (correctly, as evidenced by RIV resale pricing) that the resale market as a whole places a lot of value on the ability to exchange points. Restrictions exist to justify a price premium for Direct purchase; without restrictions, that's a lot harder to justify.

In concrete terms: without those restrictions, RIV re-sale contracts would likely be trading at $150-$170/pp instead of $120-$140, comparable to other similarly-priced resorts. That $30 difference is entirely the result of the restrictions torpedoing re-sale demand. And that difference is what they have to account for in PVB pricing.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I think you underestimate how much the re-sale market cares about resale restrictions.

It's only true that "the logic is the same" is you totally discount the impact of re-sale restrictions. As you say, you understand that the restrictions exist, but you seem to dismiss the idea that it actually impacts the value of the product, because you just wouldn't exchange those points. And that's great: if you don't care about having the flexibility to exchange your re-sale points, then you can get some great value in those contracts!

But the whole reason that Disney introduced those restrictions is that they determined (correctly, as evidenced by RIV resale pricing) that the resale market as a whole places a lot of value on the ability to exchange points. Restrictions exist to justify a price premium for Direct purchase; without restrictions, that's a lot harder to justify.

In concrete terms: without those restrictions, RIV re-sale contracts would likely be trading at $150-$170/pp instead of $120-$140, comparable to other similarly-priced resorts. That $30 difference is entirely the result of the restrictions torpedoing re-sale demand. And that difference is what they have to account for in PVB pricing.

Nope, I don't underestimate the impact of resale restrictions. I get it. I also know there's no empirical way to calculate resale restrictions' impact on the resale price. Your numbers are hypothetical, which is fine,

Set aside the Riviera comparison. The sudden desire for DVC to prop resale prices on a resort going into active sales is something new, so I still wonder why. If it's solely to make buying directly more attractive, then why not put resale restrictions on the new Poly Tower, ala Riviera, CFW, and VDH? After all, that's the whole premise behind the restrictions, right?

 

[Cabius]

Nope, I don't underestimate the impact of resale restrictions. I get it. I also know there's no empirical way to calculate resale restrictions' impact on the resale price. Your numbers are hypothetical, which is fine,

Set aside the Riviera comparison. The sudden desire for DVC to prop resale prices on a resort going into active sales is something new, so I still wonder why. If it's solely to make buying directly more attractive, then why not put resale restrictions on the new Poly Tower, ala Riviera, CFW, and VDH? After all, that's the whole premise behind the restrictions, right?

Totally fair that my numbers are hypothetical; it's impossible to untangle a single pricing factor, but helpful to think directionally.

I agree they would add restrictions if they made the Tower its own association. That seems to be their new m.o., and it makes a lot of sense. But signs point toward them adding the tower to PVB, and the consensus seems to be that they cannot add restrictions, since those attach (or not) to the association rather than to particular units/points. But we could all still be surprised!

There's not a ton of recent precedent for this exact scenario, where they're starting active sales adding onto an existing association that has so many points available. VGF is obviously a very recent example, but that had much higher re-sale prices coming in. Their 'fire sale' pricing wasn't that much higher than the going re-sale prices to begin with.

Beyond that... CCV / BRV are different associations... maybe adding the treehouses to SSR?

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Yes, so the magical beginnings is approx. $3,300 less valuable (I can’t remember the exact number) if it is not the previous years points sold back. If you sell the current year’s points you have two choices either sit out a year of points OR borrow points to begin enjoying right now, but you will come up short at the end of the contract. That’s why it very much matters which year they are offering to buy from you.[ I looked up my date to better illustrate what happened. I was in the DVC office June ‘23 and would have accepted a UY of August, September, October, or December as they were all still loaded with 2022 points at that time. They insisted at the last minute that they were only selling March UY and that it was stripped of the 2022 points but I could sell the 2023 points. That’s a $3,300 monetary loss.]

Does anyone know if Disney would ever buy back 2 years of points? If I have an Aug UY and buy today, I could get MB for 2023 points but if I don’t need 2024 points right now either, could I sell those back too? I’m sure the answer is no, but…I’m a little intrigued lol

 

[Sandisw]

I am clear on the difference between Riviera and Polynesian. I think you have to consider the Poly Tower as new sales given the projected number of points that will be for sale. Why buy Riviera at over $200 if you can buy resale at $120? The logic is the same. And I understand that resale Riviera can only be used there, but if you're buying Riviera directly, you're likely not buying them for SAP.

Except it’s not the same because when RIV went on sale, there was no established resale market or points already sold that had access to it.

So, when they first started selling RIV, they had no competition.

But Poly tower will and now that we know that they appear to be giving PVB owners access to the tower as home resort, every PVB contract selling now is buying that access before DVD can even begin its new sales

They are completely different situations. Once Poly tower begins, then you will see them follow the same process and stop taking PVB, and treat it like all the others in active sales.

 

[Sandisw]

Does anyone know if Disney would ever buy back 2 years of points? If I have an Aug UY and buy today, I could get MB for 2023 points but if I don’t need 2024 points right now either, could I sell those back too? I’m sure the answer is no, but…I’m a little intrigued lol

People asked and were told no. Its first year points only.

 

[Sandisw]

Nope, I don't underestimate the impact of resale restrictions. I get it. I also know there's no empirical way to calculate resale restrictions' impact on the resale price. Your numbers are hypothetical, which is fine,

Set aside the Riviera comparison. The sudden desire for DVC to prop resale prices on a resort going into active sales is something new, so I still wonder why. If it's solely to make buying directly more attractive, then why not put resale restrictions on the new Poly Tower, ala Riviera, CFW, and VDH? After all, that's the whole premise behind the restrictions, right?

With VGF, the resale price was already high…no need to prop up.

With the treehouses, prices direct were low enough back then than that the difference wasn’t large

So, this is really the first time they are in this situation, where they will be trying to sell a resort for $200 plus when contracts exist out there for $130 ish.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

People asked and were told no. Its first year points only.

Figured this was the case. A shame though, I would have considered buying more points if this was allowed. Back to the buying drawing board I go…

 

[Sandisw]

Figured this was the case. A shame though, I would have considered buying more points if this was allowed. Back to the buying drawing board I go…

I wish they’d offer MB for contracts smaller than 150.