Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[Brob2132]

I think they’ll want to have a big first month and the incentives will match. Especially considering how the cabins have sold…

Also, I’m all in on the additional week of booking eligibility at your home resort. Wouldn’t hurt Disney’s bottom line and would be a nice perk. Something tells me it’s a fairly complicated IT project on that back end though.

 

[intamin]

I don’t currently think I need more WDW points but I am curious to hear from people who hope to buy PVB direct (or are considering it): 1) what is the highest price you would buy direct $185? 200? Before or after MB? And 2) what is the highest premium over resale you would be willing to pay: $15 $20 $50 $unlimited?

I am not a DVC mole, I swear! I do assume Disney is trying to figure out the answers to these questions, and it will determine how they price it. Someone on their team should be thinking about specific combo offers as well (discounts if you combine PVB with RIV/VDH/AUL/CFW). I can resist a good price on any single resort but if I could get 100 at VDH, 100 at PVB, and 50 at AUL the FOMO would be harder to resist.

I'd probably be willing to do somewhere in the 190s after MB. If the incentives can be combined with VDH I may be a little more lenient. Like I've stated on here multiple times I really just want another resort to pair with my RIV points for resale restricted resorts so I'm willing to pay a little more on the premium for direct. I think another 2-300 points and I'll be set until Yacht Club is converted :X.

 

[BrianLo]

I don’t currently think I need more WDW points but I am curious to hear from people who hope to buy PVB direct (or are considering it): 1) what is the highest price you would buy direct $185? 200? Before or after MB? And 2) what is the highest premium over resale you would be willing to pay: $15 $20 $50 $unlimited?

I am not a DVC mole, I swear! I do assume Disney is trying to figure out the answers to these questions, and it will determine how they price it. Someone on their team should be thinking about specific combo offers as well (discounts if you combine PVB with RIV/VDH/AUL/CFW). I can resist a good price on any single resort but if I could get 100 at VDH, 100 at PVB, and 50 at AUL the FOMO would be harder to resist.

If it was a separate resort I would have bought direct possibly, but looking small regardless, so base price is what it is.

Since it's the same resort I'll stick to resale, or possibly not at all.

Probably not what Disney wants to hear.

 

[Cabius]

I don’t currently think I need more WDW points but I am curious to hear from people who hope to buy PVB direct (or are considering it): 1) what is the highest price you would buy direct $185? 200? Before or after MB? And 2) what is the highest premium over resale you would be willing to pay: $15 $20 $50 $unlimited?

I am not a DVC mole, I swear! I do assume Disney is trying to figure out the answers to these questions, and it will determine how they price it. Someone on their team should be thinking about specific combo offers as well (discounts if you combine PVB with RIV/VDH/AUL/CFW). I can resist a good price on any single resort but if I could get 100 at VDH, 100 at PVB, and 50 at AUL the FOMO would be harder to resist.

Assuming the Tower is in fact in the PVB Association, I'd look to add 100 to 150 more points (depending on point chart and incentives) so I could consistently book a 2BR rather than two studios. Still not 100% on that, but leaning in that direction.

Assuming all prices after incentives --

At less than $180, I'd absolutely go direct.

At $180-$200, I would have to think long and hard based on where re-sale prices settle. Obviously the lower it is in that range, the more likely I'd be to choose Direct. I don't think I'd be willing to pay more than a $40 maximum premium over a resale contract.

At $200+, I would definitely not buy direct.

 

[hockeydad21]

Agree with this, if they are going to have any chance of selling at $239+ then resale needs to be up at $170. If it stays at current levels, you are asking people to part with an extra $15k on a standard sized contract (!!) for direct, but otherwise exactly the same product as resale. I know that some may see the benefits as being worth paying that for, but it would very much narrow the audience of potential buyers. If they can get that down to ‘only’ $5k extra, there’s a wider market of direct buyers I assume. Although saying that, maybe it won’t make a difference and people will buy no matter what.

There’s been a few theories floating around on this thread regarding why DVC is ROFRing poly contracts, and I think it’s probably a combo of all of them and then some. Some things I’d consider:

1. Like Sandisw said, DVC wants these resale prices up closer to $170ish. $120-$140 per point is a steal that DVC doesn’t want to see continue.
2. DVC will have zero problem selling the Poly tower assuming it’s not insanely overpriced, so a few extra contracts are no worry to them. This is essentially easy money for DVC.
3. It seems some (possibly all?) of these ROFRed contracts are stripped of 2023 and 2024 points - perhaps allowing DVC to strategically plan for a heavy influx of longhouse/bungalow points being used at the tower in year 1? Is it possible this approach allows them to at least slightly hedge against that influx in order to keep some availability open for “welcome home stays” for new direct owners?
4. The only consistent thing about DVC decisions is the inconsistency.

 

[walt34]

They can’t create new points so if somone has used the points in any way, those points are gone.

In this case, that contract has no 2024 points so when it goes back into the pile, it won’t add any 2024 points.

But does this matter if the tower only opens in 2025? If they are selling 'new' points for the tower those can also only be used after the tower opens, right? Which will probably be end of 2024 at the earliest, I assume?

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

But does this matter if the tower only opens in 2025? If they are selling 'new' points for the tower those can also only be used after the tower opens, right? Which will probably be end of 2024 at the earliest, I assume?

I believe she mentioned it to address my theory that they might be buying them to sell to PVB buyers now, before the tower goes on sale.

 

[Minniemoo15]

If it is indeed the same association I would be interested in 150 points sub $200. $200 is a mental block for me that I just can’t cross.

 

[Sandisw]

But does this matter if the tower only opens in 2025? If they are selling 'new' points for the tower those can also only be used after the tower opens, right? Which will probably be end of 2024 at the earliest, I assume?

No. The points from that contract that went back into the bucket for that unit starts with 2025 points. There are no 2024 points with it.

So, DVD isn’t getting any 2024 points to sell. If the tower opens in 2024 and they start with 2024 points, there are no points from taking this back to add to the mix.

However, I bet they won’t be selling any points deeded to the current PVB…assuming they follow suit like BPK, which sold exclusively the new units.

That means all new sales, once the tower opens should be attached to the tower and not to current rooms.

There is no need for them to sell anything besides the tower since there will be millions of points. It’s why the move for ROFR seems to me to be about raising the price a bit before sales.

I am just surprised it didn’t start earlier…then again I still believe it was because the decision wasn’t 100% decided until recently.

 

[walt34]

I bet they won’t be selling any points deeded to the current PVB…assuming they follow suit like BPK, which sold exclusively the new units.

So where do the points they ROFR now go if they don’t sell them eventually? If it’s one association, will customers care which units their points are connected to?

My point was only that, if DVD takes these points now to increase the price, they don’t care that these contracts don’t have 2024 points as they properly won’t sell them before they sell the tower points which won’t be usable in 2024 either. My assumption was, that they’ll sell them among the new points.

 

[Sandisw]

So where do the points they ROFR now go if they don’t sell them eventually? If it’s one association, will customers care which units their points are connected to?

My point was only that, if DVD takes these points now to increase the price, they don’t care that these contracts don’t have 2024 points as they properly won’t sell them before they sell the tower points which won’t be usable in 2024 either. My assumption was, that they’ll sell them among the new points.

They will remain owned by DVD who will use them to rent rooms…and because they can borrow, that would include for cash stays at the tower.

One reason not to sell points to the current PVB at the start is that they would have to give those buying with later UYs 2023 points because those units did indeed exist.

The tower did not so they can start with 2024 points. Plus, DVd always holds points above their required minimum with ROFR, foreclosure, etc

So, any of these contracts, unless they change their mind and start selling again prior to the start of tower sales, will simply wait for sale until the entire project is sold out.

From what I have seen, even now you can’t actually get VGF direct since it went “sold out” and they took back contracts too

One reason I thought of that they have kept PVB in the add on tool is to keep that $250/price out there so when they announce initial pricing…and it is close to that $250..it’s not a big deal?

 

[Patsaizan]

I don’t currently think I need more WDW points but I am curious to hear from people who hope to buy PVB direct (or are considering it): 1) what is the highest price you would buy direct $185? 200? Before or after MB? And 2) what is the highest premium over resale you would be willing to pay: $15 $20 $50 $unlimited?

I am not a DVC mole, I swear! I do assume Disney is trying to figure out the answers to these questions, and it will determine how they price it. Someone on their team should be thinking about specific combo offers as well (discounts if you combine PVB with RIV/VDH/AUL/CFW). I can resist a good price on any single resort but if I could get 100 at VDH, 100 at PVB, and 50 at AUL the FOMO would be harder to resist.

First, I would only consider buying into the new Poly Tower if there is a separate association (which it appears it will NOT be). So, let’s say it is a separate association, most I would pay, before MB, with incentives, would be $180/point for 100 points; $170/point for 150 points. Since neither will happen (different association an $170-180/point) I am out as far as buying. Also, I am “one of those” who will only purchase direct. Personal choice.

 

[GoingSince1990]

If it is indeed the same association I would be interested in 150 points sub $200. $200 is a mental block for me that I just can’t cross.

That’s why MB is such an ingenious promotion. Instead of buying at $210 (for example) and renting out the first year’s points at DVC Rental Store for $20 pp, you can rent those points back to Disney instead at the time of purchase and claim “I bought in at $190 per point!”

 

[intamin]

That’s why MB is such an ingenious promotion. Instead of buying at $210 (for example) and renting out the first year’s points at DVC Rental Store for $20 pp, you can rent those points back to Disney instead at the time of purchase and claim “I bought in at $190 per point!”

Not to mention its untaxed and you don’t deal with broker fees. Disney also gets to prevent more points going into the rental system and people being more likely to pay the rack rate instead. It’s beneficial for Disney and the buyer, not so friendly to the rental market and potential renters but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ too bad lol.

 

[Disney_escape]

I think base will match VDH and meaningful incentives will start at 150 point level.

But the MB won't be available since there are no last year points to give (ie double points on purchase). unless they offer to buyback your future year points?
If I buy RIV with a June UY, I get to sell back 2023 and keep 2024. That can't happen at a new property.

 

[maui22]

I don’t expect best price to happen initially. Disney knows PVB owners have been using points elsewhere and telling them they won’t buy more points because their PVB points were essentially worthless for 1BR and 2BR until the 7 month mark.
Lots of demand there, so why offer best price right away?

4th quarter or first half of 2025 I expect a Poly tower sale. Higher priced but similar to VGF 2023 summer and 2024 sales.

I can’t wait to see point charts, room quality, amenities, etc. Disney has a history of going cheap when they think they can get away with it.

 

[walt34]

They will remain owned by DVD who will use them to rent rooms…and because they can borrow, that would include for cash stays at the tower.

Interesting. I though DVD was quite adverse to expending the capital for resale points and holding on to them for long these days (only ROFR'ing what is specifically requested by a direct customer). Why do you believe they won't sell them together with the tower points?

 

[AstroBlasters]

IMO, everyone expecting VGF Summer 2023 close out fire sale pricing is setting themselves up for a big disappointment.

The direct price will be whatever RIV is going for with the same incentives after the member pre-sale pricing phase.

Incentives will likely be able to be combined at RIV/POLY2/AUL but not VDH.

Prediction locked in.

$40pp delta seems to the the direct/resale threshold for most buyers.

 

[mkatsy]

As I've said before, DVC tried the bait and switch with the VGF magical beginnings when I went in there. I wanted to sell my 2022 points back to them and use my 2023 points myself and right before we sign the contract, they tell me that they can only give me 2023 points. I can sell the 2023 back to them and borrow against my 2024 for my stays. When I pointed out that I would be perpetually in a state of borrowing points for the life of the contract she just stared at me. *crickets* It worked out from a combination of me getting up to leave and mentioning that my Poly resale hadn't closed yet but I did have the completed DocuSign documents in my email. So, I think DVC could try and sell magical beginnings on the tower with just the current year points loaded. They tried it with VGF.

 

[Sandisw]

Interesting. I though DVD was quite adverse to expending the capital for resale points and holding on to them for long these days (only ROFR'ing what is specifically requested by a direct customer). Why do you believe they won't sell them together with the tower points?

Only points deeded to the new tower can be sold void of current UY points if a UY is still in its 2023 UY.

So, to sell points deeded to the current long houses or bungalows, they have to give owners who are still in their 2023 UY, 2023 points because those units existed in 2023.

The tower, because it is new, starts with its first year of points in the calendar year the resort opens.

So, they will only sell tower points until they need to sell the other ones. Plus, we have what they did with BPK as a guide.

And, I agree that DVD doesn’t usually buy up contracts to hold. But, I think the only reason right now we have seen them take some…and we aren’t really talking about a ton of points…is to attempt to influence the resale market upward so the difference between resale and direct is as small as they can make it.

I do wonder if its too late for that strategy, but I guess we shall see. It certainly surprises me that they let a $110 and a $112 pass not to long ago.