Slightly better than 50/50 depending upon how quickly ROFR, closing, and set-up of your account go. I think if you go in not caring where you stay and then waitlisting where you do want to stay you've got a decent shot of getting something. The later days will be the problem. I closed in May, account set up early June 2 years ago and was able to cobble together 6 days BWV, 1 BLT for the first week in August...this was after having a split stay of SSR/AKV set up on the first day I was able to book. Patience and diligence.