The one year I did Jersey week a few years ago (on Sat & Sun) there was a race @ WDW.
We were staying onsite @ U before switching over to WDW, scheduled specifically to skip those crowds/traffic patterns.
It was busier than I expected. There was no HHN scheduled at that time. Talked to a couple of TMs when in the park & they agreed but my guess is other people were following my strategy also
If no race that week, you should be fine with the FOTL perk. JHMO but visiting without out it is difficult when you are accustomed to having it but many feel the difference in price on hotels is worth it.