January Just Ain't What it Used to Be

[MIGrandma]

Just got home a few days ago from 8 nights at Disneyworld with our daughter, her husband and their two children (ages 6 and 9) and the other set of grandparents. We were at Port Orleans Riverside and while we did have a wonderful trip and made some amazing memories I have discovered that "January just ain't what it used to be."

It's probably been 3 or 4 years since our last trip in January (it's our preferred month, we've gone several times at that time of the year) and normally everything is pretty much walk on or wait 5-10 minutes, maybe 20-30 minutes for the more popular rides. Never full buses (except when park closed), no "crowded feeling" in the parks, etc.

But this time? What a different experience. We felt it was quite crowded every day we went to the parks and if we didn't have FP for some of the rides we wouldn't have ridden as they most often times had 60+ minutes wait times, some even 2 hours!! There were some things that didn't have long wait times (under 30 minutes) but rarely were we able to "walk right on" like we used to do. Buses were generally quite crowded as well.

I guess it's not a secret anymore to go in January when the crowds are non existant, and with the special packages Disney has been offering I guess more people have taken advantage of it. Saw several tour groups too but generally didn't have any problems with them (except once when we were waiting for a bus and they completely filled it).

Anyone else miss the "less crowdedness" of going in January?

 

[JimmyV]

There seems to be a lot of this sentiment going around. I know that neither WDW nor the Theme Park Industry Trade sites publish attendance figures detailed down to the month, but it will be interesting to see what the overall attendance growth was like in 2014. The "I love FP+" crowd seems to favor the idea that there are simply more people attending WDW, and all of its innovations are paying dividends. And the "I don't like FP+" crowd seems to favor the idea that FP+ is making the parks seem more crowded than they have in the past. I don't know where it will all shake out other than to say that the most recent attendance figures (2013) saw the MK increase by 6%, Epcot by 1.5%, AK increase by 2% and DHS increase by 2%. These numbers don't seem to support the "it felt more crowded because it was more crowded" sentiment. A 2%-6% increase, while great for the $$$ bottom line, is invisible when waiting in line for PoTC. But 2013 was not a year when MDE and FP+ were in full effect. So it will interesting to see what the 2014 numbers are. Was MIGrandma experiencing a more crowded January, or was she experiencing the "New Normal" under MDE/FP+? Not here to guess or start a war. But the frequency of these "September/October/Pre-Thanksgiving/January just wasn't what it used to be" posts are far too numerous to ignore.

 

[prudence64]

The buses and walkways felt more crowded to me in November than I'm used to. Same with the bathrooms and quick service food, and downtown. I didn't really notice much for the rides, but I never paid that much attention to specifics.

 

[OGTFUN]

So agree with the increase in crowds. We visited jan 22 to jan 30-- first january visit and picked because it was supposed to be slow!! Have gone early December, late September and October in the past. We were shocked at how busy it was--- next trip will be anytime in the first two weeks of December. Club level was also packed....maybe due to the promotions?

 

[Laketravis]

There seems to be a lot of this sentiment going around. I know that neither WDW nor the Theme Park Industry Trade sites publish attendance figures detailed down to the month, but it will be interesting to see what the overall attendance growth was like in 2014. The "I love FP+" crowd seems to favor the idea that there are simply more people attending WDW, and all of its innovations are paying dividends. And the "I don't like FP+" crowd seems to favor the idea that FP+ is making the parks seem more crowded than they have in the past. I don't know where it will all shake out other than to say that the most recent attendance figures (2013) saw the MK increase by 6%, Epcot by 1.5%, AK increase by 2% and DHS increase by 2%. These numbers don't seem to support the "it felt more crowded because it was more crowded" sentiment. A 2%-6% increase, while great for the $$$ bottom line, is invisible when waiting in line for PoTC. But 2013 was not a year when MDE and FP+ were in full effect. So it will interesting to see what the 2014 numbers are. Was MIGrandma experiencing a more crowded January, or was she experiencing the "New Normal" under MDE/FP+? Not here to guess or start a war. But the frequency of these "September/October/Pre-Thanksgiving/January just wasn't what it used to be" posts are far too numerous to ignore.

Disney's 2014 Annual Stockholder Report pegged domestic park increases at 3%, which was actually down 25% from the previous year's 4%. Of course, that's for a FY that ended 9/30 and would include DL as well .... but I think it's safe to say it could be used as a basis to not anticipate double digit park attendance growth over the last 18 months or so.

 

[whiporee]

It's not a matter of FP+ or MDE or anything. It's simply the crowds.

The Magic Kingdom saw a million more people in 2013 than it did in 2012. (17.5 to 18.6) It's seeing 4.5 million more than it did in 2002 (14.1 to 18.6).

Just in the 2013 figures, that translates to 3000 or so more people a day. If you divide that up through 10 headliners over 10 hours (which is silly math, but it's the best I can do) that translates to an extra 30 people an hour riding each headliner. But the rides themselves are constant, so all you're adding is time. 30 people at 30 seconds is an extra 15 minutes an hour of wait time, no matter how Disney tries to manage or control or mitigate the lines. The truth is that attendance in the Magic Kingdom was up 33 percent in a decade, and the increased crowds reflect that.

Historically. through the 70s the crowds were about 11 million, the and 90s about 13 and the 2002 14-16. If you figure the park was designed with about 11-13 million a year in mind, you can see why it's crowded all the time.

Also, there are 24,500 hotel rooms in WDW, not counting DVC. If those rooms average 3 people, that's nearly 75,000 resort guests every day. MK gets the lion's share of them (let's say 30,000) and the other 45 are spot between the other three parks. When yearly volume was 14 million, that's 38,000 a day -- in other words, a typical 2006 day would be 39,000 or so thousand guests (these days is 48,000). These days 30,000 of them come just from the resorts. The reason Disney seems more crowded is because it is. Because of the internet and the availability of international information, the old slow periods are now filling up because they have the reputation of being slow. And no one likes a crowded park. Short of a huge spike in fuel costs, I don't see how that will ever change.

in case anyone cares, here's where I got my numbers
http://www.themeparkinsider.com/flume/201406/4049/

 

[yeheyprincex2]

There seems to be a lot of this sentiment going around. I know that neither WDW nor the Theme Park Industry Trade sites publish attendance figures detailed down to the month, but it will be interesting to see what the overall attendance growth was like in 2014. The "I love FP+" crowd seems to favor the idea that there are simply more people attending WDW, and all of its innovations are paying dividends. And the "I don't like FP+" crowd seems to favor the idea that FP+ is making the parks seem more crowded than they have in the past. I don't know where it will all shake out other than to say that the most recent attendance figures (2013) saw the MK increase by 6%, Epcot by 1.5%, AK increase by 2% and DHS increase by 2%. These numbers don't seem to support the "it felt more crowded because it was more crowded" sentiment. A 2%-6% increase, while great for the $$$ bottom line, is invisible when waiting in line for PoTC. But 2013 was not a year when MDE and FP+ were in full effect. So it will interesting to see what the 2014 numbers are. Was MIGrandma experiencing a more crowded January, or was she experiencing the "New Normal" under MDE/FP+? Not here to guess or start a war. But the frequency of these "September/October/Pre-Thanksgiving/January just wasn't what it used to be" posts are far too numerous to ignore.

I agree, I have read the "down time" just isn't there any more. We are going beginning of December and I am wondering how different the crowds will be from our last trip in 2012. Higher crowds is a good reason for us to continue to attend MVMCP and maybe tackle some of the popular rides with a shorter wait time. Well see when we get there.

 

[lilclerk]

I felt the same way in September last year, kind of a bummer. We're going January next year, so at least we'll know to expect the worst.

 

[mom2rtk]

My theory is that as prices go up, guests have responded by hunting for deals and shopping for a less expensive time to go. I wish attendance figures were available in a weekly format. I think it would be eye-opening.

 

[Cormoran]

I'm wondering if Disney is using the FP+ reservation system to operate the parks for maximum efficiency so they've scaled back on the number of buses, the number of ride vehicles, the number of CM available at QS and retail spots. All of these cut backs would give the impression that the parks are crowded.
It reminds me of the airlines, who now fly with every seat ovccupied.

 

[mom2rtk]

I'm wondering if Disney is using the FP+ reservation system to operate the parks for maximum efficiency so they've scaled back on the number of buses, the number of ride vehicles, the number of CM available at QS and retail spots. All of these cut backs would give the impression that the parks are crowded.
It reminds me of the airlines, who now fly with every seat ovccupied.

I suspected all along MM+ was about "right staffing" in the parks. Maybe it's starting to play out that way.

 

[Happyinwonerland]

I agree, I have read the "down time" just isn't there any more. We are going beginning of December and I am wondering how different the crowds will be from our last trip in 2012. Higher crowds is a good reason for us to continue to attend MVMCP and maybe tackle some of the popular rides with a shorter wait time. Well see when we get there.

We did MVMCP this year, early December on a Tuesday night, supposedly the least crowded time to attend. The party was a sell out and it was crazy crowded. Wait times were still crazy for the headliners.

 

[JimmyV]

The reason Disney seems more crowded is because it is.

I think the increased percentages establish that it is more crowded. The question is, does this single digit increase in attendance account for the observations being reported. I'm not criticizing your math, because it is impossible to do, but I will just point a few flies in the ointment. You assume that all 3000 extra people are in the MK at all times throughout the day from opening until closing. That isn't likely. You also stuffed them all into the same 10 attractions. This would result in no observable difference in the crowds at other attractions, and we are seeing that reported as well. I go back to percentages. (And maybe that, too, is wrong). I just don't think a 2% increase in attendance at Epcot can do much more than float all boats by 2%. It can't increase one's wait time at Test Track by 20% unless some very odd crowd dynamics are at play. I think that the "right-staffing" observation might be right on the money. Small differences in operational staffing might throw some molasses in the motor oil. Or maybe the FP+ theory isn't wrong after all. Perhaps crowd redistribution, which has been a goal of FP+ all along, has put people if places where we aren't used to seeing them, making the parks appear more crowded. Ultimately, a slow to moderate day in the MK would be around 30,000-35,000 people. If we assume that the 6% increase is a constant over time, that would bring the totals up to 31,800-37,100. 1,800-2,100 extra people should be invisible when spread throughout the park, and spread throughout the day. At least, I think that should be the case.

 

[SeanTomorrow]

But remember that OP was comparing to 3-4 years ago. So as a very rough pass you'd take all your numbers and multiply by 3 or 4 (If we want to be geeky, you'll need to compound them over time).

Something like 6% increase in one year is easy to dismiss as invisible. But if it happens 3-4 years in a row, that's huge growth (18-24%+)

 

[Good Morning Dewdrop]

I've been surprised by the crowds as well - but that said - we used FP+ to our advantage yesterday (Sunday) at MK. We visited AK at RD, then used our 3 FP+ at DHS until 1 pm then hopped over to MK to pick up an additional 5 FP+ (Pirates, HM, Small World, Buzz and Jungle Cruise) and watch the parade. It was a thrill to grab a FP+ that started in 10 minutes - walk over to the ride and walk past tons of folks in the stand-by line. We left just after 6 pm (so could have stayed later and gotten even more FP). I miss the low crowds.

 

[ArwenMarie]

I'm wondering if Disney is using the FP+ reservation system to operate the parks for maximum efficiency so they've scaled back on the number of buses, the number of ride vehicles, the number of CM available at QS and retail spots. All of these cut backs would give the impression that the parks are crowded.
It reminds me of the airlines, who now fly with every seat ovccupied.

Really good point.

I think it's a combination of this, FP+ increasing waits for secondary attractions and just overall crowds going up a bit in January.

 

[JennaDeeDooDah]

Things do seem more crowded. Personally, I wish that Disney has spent some of the billions that they have put towards MDE, FP+, and new DVC properties on new rides and attractions, instead. I think that the higher crowds are a combination of people choosing to go then since they think it will be more crowded rather than waiting until Christmas, Spring Break, or the summer and more people being there due to new DVC properties. Of course there are going to be more people in the parks when Disney adds thousands of rooms and doesn't add anything new in the parks to help spread out the crowds. FP+ was clearly implemented to try and help deal with those crowds and I think we can all agree that the crowds are more spread out across the park now as proven by the fact that wait times at the less popular attractions have gone up while the more popular attractions have seen a decrease in average wait time. However, I would have preferred fewer DVC properties, no FP+ (or something different than what they rolled out) and instead just adding new attractions. If you add 10 rides/attractions to each park, you would see the average wait time at the majority of attractions drop. That'd make me happy. Plus, there would be something new and fun to experience.

 

[Toad_Passenger]

Posted in another thread about the January "crowds." We were there last week and, while the crowds were bigger than our past January trips, they were still only in the 2-4 range for most days, 5-7 (maybe 8) on the busiest day (Friday for us).

So, yes, comparatively busier than before, but that has been happening across the entire year for Disney. I'd still take last week's crowds over a Mid-August wait & swelter trip.

We still experienced plenty of 5-10 minute waits (even when the posted times were 20), and the only headliner I saw approach 120 minutes was 7DMT on Friday (1/30).

We found it plenty easy to ride everything we wanted, and most things multiple times.

But, as I said in that other thread, one person's "3" day is another person's "9" day. So, when it comes to crowds, mileage may definitely vary.

 

[JimmyV]

But remember that OP was comparing to 3-4 years ago.

Fair point. But many other "annual" posters have been noting the same thing over the past 12 months.

 

[georgina]

We did MVMCP this year, early December on a Tuesday night, supposedly the least crowded time to attend. The party was a sell out and it was crazy crowded. Wait times were still crazy for the headliners.

Interesting. We did MVMCP in December on a Thursday (11th I think?) The party wasn't sold out as of 3:45, many rides were walk-ons, especially later in the evening (except 7DMT). We didn't think the weekend after that was bad either, but we have gone many times in the summer.