McBride has pulled ahead of Janet Reno in the week before the election in part due to negative advertising against McBride by Jeb. McBride's campaign had anticipated Jeb would try to get the weaker candidate selected in the Democratic primary and had prepared very effective counter adds back in March that they released shortly after the first Bush negative ads.
Both Democratic and Republican polls show that McBride is a stronger candiate against Jeb (hence the dirty tricks and negative ads) and that Reno would not be as strong a candidate. If McBride is the nominee, you can expect a great deal of DNC funds to come into Florida and a fairly close election where anything can happen (i.e. the Democrats have not yet unleashed their best attacks on Jeb)(there is so much to work with).