I believe your steak analogy should be tweaked to better reflect the current discussion. I think buying into DVC would be similar to buying discounted vouchers for meals at your favorite restaurant and the vouchers are good for anything up to the value of the steak with unique taste and flavors you crave. Using your valuable PVB points for stays at PVB would be like redeeming those vouchers for steak dinners. Now, I realize you may not want to have a steak every time you patronize that restaurant, so you might decide to burn one of those valuable vouchers for a grilled chicken instead. Once you have made that decision, you are essentially overpaying for the grilled chicken as the amount you pay for the voucher would exceed the value of the grilled chicken. Is it okay to that? Sure if that's what you want do, but I certainly won't recommend other people buying those vouchers with the intent to redeem for grilled chickens or any other item with a lower value (one off might be okay, I supposed, but certainly not repeatedly). Ultimately, if all you want is have a steak dinner for about 20 out of 40 visits, you are probably better off buying 20 of those vouchers and redeem those for steaks when you want while paying for the grilled chicken or whatever else you desire through other means on those occasions. That's certainly a better deal than loading up on 40 vouchers and redeeming them for grilled chickens or shrimp skewers whenever you don't feel like having a steak.
I understand buying DVC is more than strictly numbers. However, like Dean said, it really should be a primary focus as the underlying motivation is "saving" money on deluxe accommodations. Otherwise, one shouldn't be buying in the first place, IMHO.
LAX
Haha, now we are cooking (pun intended)! Lol but I think I can refine your analogy a bit further. First, lets say that the steaks sell out EVERY night at varying times, but often around 7pm, and you usually get off work at 630pm. Steaks are your favorite thing at this restaurant and there is no close second. Lets also say that the restaurant offers 2 vouchers, each allows one meal a week and and they both come out at least a little cheaper than paying cash (obviously one moreso than the other):
Voucher 1 represents Direct Sales at PVB:
Allows you to call in orders as early as 11am and lock your order in to be picked up any time later that day (i.e. 7pm when you arrive) and gets you first priority by skipping the line when you arrive (both 11 month priority window), gives a free drink with every meal(20 percent off DVC discount), and a free meal twice a year (moonlight magic). Also this voucher is good for 12 months. This voucher costs $1000 and is basically the equivalent of buying direct. You are guaranteeing that you can be almost sure to get a steak any night you want, regardless of if they sell out before you arrive, as long as you call in early.
Voucher 2 represents resale at SSR:
Is only valid for 9 months as opposed to 12 (used resorts have earlier contract end dates), you can not call in orders and you can not skip the line (have to book at 7 months), and you don't get free sodas or a free meal twice a year (no membership perks).... but this voucher only costs $600.
Now if you buy the second voucher, you have to live with the fact that you can only get steak on they days you arrive and get to the front of the line before they sell out since you can not call in orders early or skip to they front of the line.... So by purchasing voucher #2 you are seriously limiting your ability to choose and eat what you want every time. As a result, I am sure there will be at least a time or two (and probably more) that you will have to settle for something less than steak because you arrived too late, regardless of how bad you have been craving steak that week. That sucks, mores for some than others. Of course you could live with just getting steak the days it works out regardless of what you want that particular day in order to make a better financial choice, and there is nothing wrong with that.... but you are making major compromises on your ability to choose whatever you want to eat on any given day in the future.
And trying to predict what you will want to eat one random day a week for the next 52 weeks is just silly and not possible, even if you data chart every meal you ate for the last 5 years prior and use those analytics to determine the probability of you wanting steak on particular days, who knows how that will change over the course of the year... or what unique circumstances and situation will play into the decision each time you go to use a voucher. Sure you can make an educated guess, but a man like me would obsess and constantly worry that I won't be able to get what I want any particular night and that would drive me insane... the stress of trying to rush through traffic one day because I got off late and really want a steak... that comes with your choice to buy the cheaper voucher.
Buy purchasing the first voucher, you are purchasing the convenience and the piece of mind that you know you will be able to get a steak whenever you want one. No stress, no worries... you are paying extra specifically to eliminate that. So if that is important to you, then there is nothing wrong with buying voucher number 2. Sure it costs significantly more, but you are paying for convenience and peace of mind that you just CAN NOT GET OTHERWISE. And you know what... If 3 weeks in a row you don't want to order steak then you shouldn't force yourself too as as make sure to get the maximum value from your voucher. You should order what you want... and because you paid extra and went out of your way to allow yourself to get steaks whenever you want then you are obviously going to order steaks most nights. But if every third trip you decide to order something different than streak you are not diluting your purchase in any way because 1) you are not diluting your ability to guarantee a steak on future orders when you may very well only want steak 10 weeks in a row, and 2) It is still cheaper, at least by the tiniest margin, than paying cash.
Once you have bought into DVC it is done. My point, as jersey said, is that you should not be held prisoner by your points/initial purchase. By all means, make the most educated purchase you can but who knows what will change in the future. You should use your points for what works best for you each given year. Everybody's goal with DVC is to save some money, but it isn't to get the ABSOLUTE BEST value, nor should it be. A huge part is the convenience of planning future vacations, and convenience is an actual thing and worth something. Why do you think people fly first class when they could just fly coach? Convenience. It has monetary value.
Going back to the dining plan analogy, I'm sorry but nobody orders the dining plan and gets the most expensive thing from the most expensive restaurant with every credit... while that would be most efficient financial use of credits, it is far from the best because you will not be happy or satisfied eating at the same place every night, rushing from the park to get to Victoria and Alberts, etc. I'm not saying order a chicken sandwich or burger every time, that would be dumb. And if you were going to do that you obviously wouldn't get a dining plan. But if you want chicken parmigiana and the steak is more expensive? Who cares, order the chicken parmigiana. You are only cheating yourself by being held hostage by your initial purchase and trying to attain maximum "value". If you were able to save even a penny over paying cash, plus get what you want at every meal, and get all the convenience of the dining plan (pre paying therefore spreading out payments, autonomy for kids, less stress, etc) then you got your moneys worth, regardless of the fact you didn't order the absolute most expensive thing at the most expensive restaurant every time (and therefore the maximum monetary value of your initial purchase).
