Is Your DVC Now Worthless?

[marx]

There are alot of stories about people taking years before they decide if DVC is right for them

My story is that I took way too many years

I toured OKW early on, then put a deposit on BWV a few years later before pulling out. I finally purchased in 2007.

In the interim, I visited Disney resorts on average three weeks per year ususally staying at the Moderates. I could have saved money by purchasing earlier.

And if the price does drop significantly count me in on someone who would add points.

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

Don't count on it. If someone *must have* BLT, then *maybe* this would cause them to consider a higher resale offer. But, as the supply of BLT resales increases, that will put downward pressure on prices. And, BLT is a relatively large resort---an increase in supply is inevitable.


It could be done, quite easily. The idea is that you'd create a "second club" that included only the new resorts. Then, you can establish a trading system between the "old" club and the "new" club, fixing the exchange rate at 1:1. Only "qualified" contracts in the "old" club could exchange into the "new" club.

For anyone who owned a qualified contract, it would look like one seamless DVC system. But, legally, they would be separate.There are probably other ways to make it happen, as well.

Thanks Brian. Although, this is not the answer I wanted to hear...this was definitely the thoughtful response that I was looking for.

 

[papamouse1]

Wow, Some VB resales are selling in the $30 - $39 range per point. Most still in the $40's but that is amazing and soon those people might have to pay the buyer to take the timeshare from them to get out.

Honestly, I don't like the thought of my DVC value dropping, but the fact is $30 point is STILL way better than I ever got for the 3 timeshares we got rid of when we were young and foolish. Gave one away, walked away from one contract after trying to sell it for 2 solid years, and got a small pittance for the 3rd by selling it my aunt.

Even with its reduced value, my "more than a timeshare" purchase of DVC is still valuable to me in every way... not as much as when I bought it, but still hands down valuable.

 

[eljefe45]

Should prices go down after March 21? Yes. how much? Who knows? But let's think about a reasonable floor.

Let's use SSR as an example. 4.52 in dues, call in 4.50. You can rent those points for 9. So after dues you get 4.5. So most certainly things won't go to 5 because you'd make your points back with one rental. I don't think 10 or 20 or 30 is even doable. $30 is a yield of 15%. That's awfully good. Too many people would take advantage of that and keep prices up. $40 is a yield of 11.125%. That's pretty reasonable, you've got hassle factor but still a double digit return. My guess would be ultimately low 40's, and then slow deductions as it gets moves toward termination.

Now DVC can change things, the maintenance can go up, the rental policy could change, the uses could change but until drastic stuff happens I think market dynamics has to rule to some extent. And at the other end, if inflation ever goes up, and it will, and soon, the points you can rent for should go up too, and that should help resale prices.

 

[Brian Noble]

[/B]

Thanks Brian. Although, this is not the answer I wanted to hear...this was definitely the thoughtful response that I was looking for.

Better to go in eyes wide open. But, more importantly, it doesn't matter. When you bought your points, the value proposition was there. As long as you continue to use your points the way you planned then, the value is *still* there. If some new hypothetical resort is built that you can't use, so what? You didn't count on that resort when you purchased, so it is a non-issue.

Now, it is possible for DVC to play similar games with existing resorts---by rolling foreclosures and/or ROFRs into the "new" club. But my experience with other timeshare systems that have done similar things (e.g. Wyndham) suggests that those moves are more bark than bite.

 

[Sammie]

We bought our points for less than half the current asking price.

Honestly at the cost of points now, unless you are buying to get into a one bedroom or larger, I don't think I could recommend it for anyone.

Maminnie actually described the cost of having DVC very well. It is not just about the buy in cost, and maintenance fees, all the other costs to be able to enjoy it are very, very high.

There are much better vacation values out there and even at Disney right now it is less expensive to go without using DVC. If dues do not go up, which I know they will, just for dues until the end of our contract will be over $50,000 which would make for some really fantastic vacations.

If DVC restricts use any more in the future, honestly we will be wishing too, we did not have ours. I wish I had done what several others did and sold half of our points when prices were still up and used it only every 3 years. We did not buy to use DVC to trade out, but we did buy thinking the use of it at all DVC resorts would never be a problem. Honestly I don't feel that is a guarantee anymore.

If the focus at DVC is going to be sales and expansion, I truly hope they expand to other areas like they are in Hawaii. I think they have over saturated WDW and frankly we are getting tired of going there.

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

Better to go in eyes wide open. But, more importantly, it doesn't matter. When you bought your points, the value proposition was there. As long as you continue to use your points the way you planned then, the value is *still* there. If some new hypothetical resort is built that you can't use, so what? You didn't count on that resort when you purchased, so it is a non-issue.

Now, it is possible for DVC to play similar games with existing resorts---by rolling foreclosures and/or ROFRs into the "new" club. But my experience with other timeshare systems that have done similar things (e.g. Wyndham) suggests that those moves are more bark than bite.

We own 100 points, and are quite happy with that amount. I can see that Disney is getting a little old, but we've been using our points as fast as we could borrow them. Our current strategy is to space our trips out a little more so that we can actually use current year points...and maybe even bank at some point and stay in 1 bedrooms.

Even with the new restrictions...and the possibility of not staying in anything new...I'm happy with 100 points. I just think that in 2039...2040...etc. when I don't have the choice to stay in a room that is less than 30 years old...that will kind of stink. I guess old room for an old codger.

 

[dizfan]

Don't count on it. If someone *must have* BLT, then *maybe* this would cause them to consider a higher resale offer. But, as the supply of BLT resales increases, that will put downward pressure on prices. And, BLT is a relatively large resort---an increase in supply is inevitable.

Absolutely agree that it's a bad idea to count on anything other than the value of the years of usage. Not planning to ever sell (or at least not for decades).

Bought at $96 and have two trips in. Once we've broken even, everything else is the reason we bought DVC.

It makes sense for the resale supply to increase after a resort sells out. A percentage of points sold are likely to appear on the market.
There's also a reasonable chance the economy gets better and Disney keep raising prices both increasing demand for resale.
Also reasonable chance hotel prices keep increasing, making the years of DVC usage an even better value as time goes by.