Is this the worst possible time to use actual availability as a purchasing consideration?

[MicheyMouse]

We are deciding on a home resort and it seems like actual availability right now is crushed due to the pent up demand, banked points, etc. We are trying to evaluate flexibility at the 7 month mark. Even OKW and SSR are not reliable fall backs at the moment.

 

[cellomom]

#1 rule- Buy where you want to stay!
Yes, you are correct the current lack of availability is due to pent-up demand, bank points etc.…

Here is a link to “Predicted DVC Booking Patterns”. pre-Covid booking patterns. “may” be of use predicting your odds of booking DVC resorts at 11 months or 7 months. Please note once again this is pre-Covid booking patterns
https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...-bd-charts-september-2019-2-bd-added.3689931/

 

[Brian Noble]

#1 rule- Buy where you want to stay!

I prefer the slightly easier-to-satisfy "Don't buy where you wouldn't be happy staying most of the time." If you like SSR just fine, but might prefer some other places a bit more, SSR can still be a home resort. If you imagine feeling resentful that you're staying at SSR yet again, probably best not to buy there.

 

[Benchedguy]

We did both strategies. Bought a re-sale of Poly....where we want to stay. And bought a direct OKW....where we would be happy to stay but will look around at the 7 month mark.

One would have to guess that the 7 month mark is unusually harder to book right now due to
1) Covid and people start to come again.
2) 50th Anniversary
I think both are going to make things a little harder over the next year or 2 to find availability at the 7 month mark

 

[Wedgeout]

The 7 month mark is still a fun time for building split stays! Enjoy your home resort pick!

 

[sndral]

While this fall is certainly an aberration due to the unused points glut that’ll need to work through the system, DVC availability @ 7 months has evolved w/ each new resort opening. The bigger the new resort/more points added via inflated point charts the more competition there is @ 7 months for smaller/more ‘desirable’ and/or less point hungry resorts. The only bookable @ your home resort resale restriction of the new resorts adds a wrinkle to the general trend.
For example, Reflections, currently ‘on hold,’ was to be massive w/ a rumored 900 villas making it larger than all WDW DVC resorts except SSR (which has 1320, next biggest OKW only has 761.) Add in likely higher point charts when they get around to building Reflections, especially initially when most of those points will be direct & bookable anywhere, it‘ll become much harder to get a smaller resort at 7 months IMO.
It’s because there’s no way to know what DVC will build/convert next & how that will change the booking landscape that I’m in the buy where you want to stay camp - a few extra dollars upfront for a luxury purchase so that I know I’ll be able to stay in a resort I love staying in is worth it to me.

 

[sethschroeder]

We are deciding on a home resort

What resorts are you looking at and which one would you chose if they all cost the same?

 

[crisi]

While this fall is certainly an aberration due to the unused points glut that’ll need to work through the system, DVC availability @ 7 months has evolved w/ each new resort.......

With time, a number of things are happening, and none of them are great for seven month availability.
1) Resales at small low point resorts are happening at very high prices. This implies that the majority of someone buying a very expensive short term BCV contract is going to book eleven months out and use their points at BCV. Either that, or they are an idiot. Let's assume the first.
2) Each resort adds new members to the system - most of whom join with the intention of wanting to try all the resorts. More members means more competition for rooms. The new resorts mean that some old members will want to try the new resorts - but some of those members are going to be limited in their ability to do so because resale. And many members are just fine staying at their home resort. New members often don't know the system - they buy direct whatever Disney is selling and buy intending to book smaller/less point hungry resorts.
3) Every time a member doesn't get what they want by booking a little too late, they move up their booking to earlier. So people who used to take the risk on something being available at seven months because they don't want to stay at home, now book home as a safety and that creates a seven month log jam. People also figure out ways to game the system - they rent points at the resort they really desire, and then rent out their points to cover the cost. Or they walk a reservation for months. Or they stalk the website piecing together openings. All those things are fine to do - but the more people do them (and more people will learn to do them over time), the less chance there is each of these strategies will work.

 

[eMoneyBug]

I like the owner that used the buy where you don’t dislike strategy! I will add to that, and how long do you want to own for 2042 vs 2050+ That goes toward making a satisfied owner.

I think recent and future BW and BC resale buyers are paying a high premium so you can pretty much bet that they will be using their points at home resort booked 11months out for the next 3-5years for sure.

 

[MicheyMouse]

What makes this the most difficult is we would ideally want Riviera, but it would have to be direct because we would want flexibility to stay at other resorts.

I could see us staying in Riviera 60% of the time in a deluxe studio, Poly studio 20% of the time, 10% at other studios like BLT, BC, BW or VGF and the final 10% at either SSR/OKW 1 br or large studio if we bring 2 more people.

The Riviera restrictions are certainly that.

If we went resale, we would prefer a 2054+ contract and be looking at the most value per point. Riviera would probably not be an attractive option if we went resale unless the price was just too good to pass up.

We would either stay 1 week a year - likely May/Sept dates or possibly 2 separate 4-day weekends at random times. The latter would be more likely if we go direct and get blue card perks applying to the gold pass.

I would guess 125-200pts would be the target depending on where we choose for the home resort and if we went direct or resale.

 

[Jwaire]

I echo the buy where you want to stay. I think the days of owning SS and staying at more premium resorts are numbered at least for people that prefer not stay 1 night here, 1 night there and have to go during busier seasons.

That's just not an option for me. My family doesn't like to be uprooted and moved every other day. On the other hand, I would love to try them all.

I purchased my Poly contract (where I want to stay) resale, and added on (after the Poly closed) a Rivera 150 point contract at a discount (roughly $186 per point).

It was between SS and Rivera for me, and Rivera won because of the availability problem at 7 months. We'd prefer to stay closer to the parks. But I would have rather purchased somewhere like VGF or BLT direct. However, I wasn't paying Disney's direct prices for them.

Do I care about the restrictions? I think they're ridiculous and should be removed. However, RR resale is listing for around $150-$170+ per point currently. So, I'm not really worried about it. I didn't purchase DVC to flip it for a profit. We will own for quite a while.

If you are terribly worried about the restrictions you can either 1) ask them to break the contract into two separate smaller point contracts or 2) purchase a guaranteed week. Both will command a premium in the future provided the resale market stays as healthy as it is.

 

[sethschroeder]

What makes this the most difficult is we would ideally want Riviera, but it would have to be direct because we would want flexibility to stay at other resorts.

I could see us staying in Riviera 60% of the time in a deluxe studio, Poly studio 20% of the time, 10% at other studios like BLT, BC, BW or VGF and the final 10% at either SSR/OKW 1 br or large studio if we bring 2 more people.

The Riviera restrictions are certainly that.

If we went resale, we would prefer a 2054+ contract and be looking at the most value per point. Riviera would probably not be an attractive option if we went resale unless the price was just too good to pass up.

We would either stay 1 week a year - likely May/Sept dates or possibly 2 separate 4-day weekends at random times. The latter would be more likely if we go direct and get blue card perks applying to the gold pass.

I would guess 125-200pts would be the target depending on where we choose for the home resort and if we went direct or resale.

If you went with 200 points it would be $186/point.

If we are talking about SAP at SSR its around $110/point and for where you might want to stay secondary POLY $150/point. So you are looking at $76/point savings at SSR or $36/point savings at POLY.

I would get RIV over POLY (or VGF/CCV/BLT all priced similar or higher) personally. That being said if you want to roll the dice and are fine staying at SSR/AKV/OKW then I would go with those options.

Its hard paying more but for me personally the extra money now it worth the piece of mind for the next 48 years. Plus buying direct gets you whatever direct benefits are over the years.

Do not buy direct though unless your intention is keeping is long term. If you think there is any chance you sell then buy resale instead at some resort. You could always buy Riviera resale and then the couple years you want to switch resorts get transfer points or rent points while renting out your points to cover the cost.

 

[Nabas]

What makes this the most difficult is we would ideally want Riviera, but it would have to be direct because we would want flexibility to stay at other resorts.

I could see us staying in Riviera 60% of the time in a deluxe studio, Poly studio 20% of the time, 10% at other studios like BLT, BC, BW or VGF and the final 10% at either SSR/OKW 1 br or large studio if we bring 2 more people.

Based on what you wrote, RIV direct seems the way to go, since you would be happy staying there 60% of the time.

One thing to remember is that only SSR has more Studios than PVB, so PVB is not as difficult to book as you'd think. The toughest will be BCV and CCV. BCV because of its popularity and smallness, and CCV because of its point imbalance. VGF is tough too, but that should ease up once the additional 200 Studios are added for VGF2.

BLT Lake View or BWV Water View are medium difficulty to pick up at 7 months.

Just remember that all Studios are tough to get from late September to early January. Although you sometimes can get lucky, you usually have to stay at your Home Resort for these months, if you want a Studio.

You mentioned wanting to go in May or September. Availability for those months is spotty but usually you can get something different ever year. (We also like to go in May and September.) As long as your exact dates are flexible, you should have reasonably good variety for those two months.

 

[crisi]

I could see us staying in Riviera 60% of the time in a deluxe studio, Poly studio 20% of the time, 10% at other studios like BLT, BC, BW or VGF and the final 10% at either SSR/OKW 1 br or large studio if we bring 2 more people.

DVC is going to work best if you make your reservations at home and then at seven months say "we'd like a BLT studio, but if that isn't available, a BC, then a BW, then a Poly....." or whatever. If you go into it with "at seven months this trip we will switch to BWV, and we will be disappointed if we end up anywhere else" then the availability will be disappointing. In other words, the more flexible you are, the happier you will be with the idea of switching at seven - which is why "buy where you won't mind ending up" is critical. We own BWV and if we decide we really want to stay at GFV and it isn't available, we are fine with BWV and we can try GFV some other time. (With the exception of HHI, we almost always book BWV at eleven months and stay there - I'm not a huge sleep arounder).

A lot of people only bought enough points for studios, so they often go quickly. And people who bought multiple resorts often bought only enough points at their secondary or tertiary resorts for a studio every couple years. One bedrooms stay open a lot longer.