Is the Number of Seats Sold a Good Predictor of a Flight Getting Cancelled?

[Bill From PA]

I've already dealt with one flight cancellation by Delta for our March trip and I had to intervene as they first switched us to an arrival time which would have lost us much of the first day. We're back to a noon landing. In trying to anticipate any further surprises I went to the Delta website and looked at available seats for all flights from my local 'port to ATL and from ATL to MCO. By far our two planes are the most occupied on both legs, coach being nearly sold out on both. The other available flights have 50% or more vacant seats. My question is, does this mean that Delta would likely retain our flights and cancel the less reserved ones, if they cancel at all? My hope is that the occupancy rate on my flights is insurance against another cancellation. Is this the only/primary consideration as to which flight gets dropped?

Thanks for any insight offered,
Bill From PA

 

[lost*in*cyberspace]

No one could not possibly know for sure (nor could Delta, except a guess based on historical data) if a flight will be full 4 months away, unless it is already sold out. Anything could happen between now and March, including a hostile takeover of Delta by US Airways or someone else, and flight schedules changed across the board.

Yes, flights are canceled because not enough seats are sold.

 

[kaytieeldr]

Ah, for the good "old" days... I was on a Midway flight from Raleigh-Durham to Boston in the late 1990s that carried a total of - wait for it.... SEVEN passengers.

 

[Lewisc]

It's really not a good predictor. Delta needs that plane at MCO for an outgoing flight. Now if Delta is using that plane for a return flight to Atlanta, and that flight is also empty, Delta could cancel both flights.

If Delta wants to cancel one flight from ATL-MCO it won't be just based on what flight is more booked. Delta has to decide how to get planes to where they're needed. That could involve cancelling a flight that's more booked and moving those passengers.

A change a few months out is a result of a schedule change. Delta could do almost anything. A change close to your flight is less likely since it will disrupt other flights.

 

[gw_lit]

However, a flight may have a very light load in one direction, but that plane is need coming back for another flight. For example, there may be a flight from Atlanta to Orlando with a very light load. But that same plane is turned around and heads back from Orlando to Atlanta (or elsewhere) and that flight may be fully loaded, or even oversold. In that situation, they are not going to cancel the lightly loaded flight since it would then have to cancel a full flight.

 

[chesirechik]

Our last trip to DW was on Jan 30, 2006 - we had a 7:50pm flight from PIT to MCO on Southwest. There were 5 of us on the plane. It was SO nice!

 

[NotUrsula]

Frontier Airlines, Wed, May 3d, '06, about 2 pm., STL-DEN. Airbus 318, with 114 seats. 9 passengers.

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

A scheduled flight with an occasional light load in one direction will operate as scheduled, except under unusual circumstances. For example, if a terrible weather condition somewhere in the country prevents inbound aircraft from arriving at a hub airport, then an airline may reassign aircraft to the flights that make the most sense to operate, based on passenger load. Normally, however, a flight will operate as scheduled, even if the passenger load is lighter than average.

If a given scheduled flight fails to produce a sufficient financial yield consistently — day after day, month after month — then an airline is likely to drop the flight (or even the route) from their schedule.

I wouldn't worry about the passenger load based on a seat map for a flight 4 months from now. Most of my flights to Orlando show as nearly empty 4 months out, but are full on the day of the flight.

A separate issue is that the legacy airlines adjust their schedules far more often than one would think. Delta seems to the worst. Sometimes the change only involves a few minutes or a different aircraft type. But sometimes the change can mean that connections no longer work or that there is no longer service at the time of day that you had been ticketed for.

 

[DonnaL]

Bill....coming from the same neck of woods you do I know how you feel....you should utilize the airport in your backyard....however, I gave up on that two years ago after many bad experiences with both USAirways and Delta. I think the new airport is gorgeous, but, will not fly from there because of the service those two airlines provide. We've been driving to PHL and flying SW for the past couple years and love it.....I swore I would never do it....with the local port only two miles from my house.....but, I reached a point ......need I say more. SW is great......customer service best in industry, prices best in industry and they have yet to change a flight time by more five or ten minutes in two years of flights. Granted you can't make your ressies far out, but, you CAN change them without penalty once they're made if you need to......and their prices just simply can't be beat. We're flying mid January for $110 total rd trp from PHL nonstop leaving PHL at noon arriving at 2:45 p.m. On our last trip in October we were on the same flight and we were at SSR by 3:45 p.m. (our flight was 15 minutes early). We still had the whole evening at WDW. If you want any more info feel free to PM or email me. Their Rapid Rewards program is great too.....my husband and I both just got a RR for a free rd trp....we're planning to use them to visit my cousin on the West Coast next fall (why waste a free round trip on a ticket we can get for $110 to MCO). Seriously,
think about it...........

 

[DebbieB]

They change the schedule over a period of time, not day to day. They don't look at the schedule and say we'll cancel this one this day, that one the next day. They revise the entire schedule.

 

[Bill From PA]

Thanks for all the input, I guess my plan is to monitor this daily and try to make sure that if a change happens that we still get to MCO as early in the day as possible.

DonnaL, we flew a non-stop out of PHL this March, our second WDW trip from Philly and we used ABE once when USAir had a direct to MCO from there. It's a balancing act. It seems the older carriers have it priced so that the savings to be had by flying out of PHL are exactly countered by the cost of a trip down, parking, hotel, etc. so this time we decided to pay the price for nearly door-to-door convienience. After booking the Delta tix I started investigating AirTran, my wife's co-worker uses them for her DVC trips twice a year. On your advice I'll add SW to next year's plan. This March we got the Ramada park'n fly package for $107, figure $120 with the gas we burned, so that's the nut to crack. FWIW, the Delta fare was $301 each, the most we ever paid out of AVP, or anywhere for that matter, so it's getting increasingly easy to save enough to justify the trip to PHL.

Bill From PA

 

[MomofCKJ]

Back in March 1989 I was flying Hartford to Tampa to visit my then boyfriend. There were maybe 6 of us on the flight. They moved us all into the First Class section and we had a really nice breakfast, hot towels, etc on the flight. I'll never forget that!

Allyson

 

[InstImpres]

Delta has been cancelling flights like crazy lately. I have spent a lot of time on the phone with CRO airdesk because of client changes. They will take your nice late night non-stop return and switch you to a 2pm flight with a connector without giving it a second thought.

While I would certainly stay on top of it as you clearly are, March is a long way away for Delta....you could experience several changes for the good and bad.

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

Delta has been cancelling flights like crazy lately. I have spent a lot of time on the phone with CRO airdesk because of client changes.

Just to clarify... I assume you're referring to schedule changes, in which certain flight numbers are dropped from Delta's schedule as Delta makes an effort to once again become a viable business. Yes, Delta seems to make more schedule changes and bigger schedule changes than any other US airline.

Sometimes people on this board are concerned about a flight cancellation. They see a particular flight, on a particular day, with many unassigned and presumably unsold seats. So they think that particular flight will be cancelled. As has been noted repeatedly on this thread, that's unlikely to happen. And when people look at seat assignment maps 4 months before the flight date, they're not taking into count that most people don't book as early as they do.