Is it reasonable to expect other conversions?

[CaptainAmerica]

I don't think VGF would be happening if Reflections were moving forward and I think Reflections would be moving forward if not for COVID.

They're going to need something to sell behind Riviera with a 2070+ end date, so I don't see any major conversions happening as tack-on inventory to existing condo associations. I don't know how appealing ALK2 would be with a 2057 end date.

 

[Sandisw]

It might be good time to decide what they are going to do with some of these 2042 resorts. Are they going to extend them? If so, that’s be a big cash influx without building a thing.

I would guess they will be redone and sold as new resorts with 50 year terms. It won't be an extension like they did with OKW...that would require them to have the point charts stay the same.

 

[viper17d]

I really only think there are two prospects that fit the same mold as GF2 - Poly and Copper Creek.

The key factors I see are: a) convertible space, b) strong location driving renewed demand, and c) an expiry far enough out to not be an impediment to sales.

It really only makes sense to talk existing DVC resorts, because adding a chunk of studios is the cheapest flip for Disney and both resorts would benefit from more studios (Copper Creek is notoriously light on studios and Poly could always use more studios to balance the bungalow effect).

To convert a non-DVC resort is a much larger investment with much more risk.

 

[viper17d]

I would guess they will be redone and sold as new resorts with 50 year terms. It won't be an extension like they did with OKW...that would require them to have the point charts stay the same.

Definitely agree with this. I’m not sure Disney knows exactly what they’re doing in 2042, but they know the OKW-style extension wasn’t that great for them.

It’ll be interesting since there are two big problems for letting them all lapse at the same time: a) massive investment on all of those resorts to refurb and rebrand at the same time and b) if they just switch them over to cash resorts in the meantime, it would be a glut of inventory.

One of the ideas I’ve heard, which I’m on board with as a possibility, is to extend a couple of them for 2 years to stagger the re-development cost. Try and get some additional money from folks ($5-10/point) to “unlock” those two years or otherwise just benefit from the dues coming in.

 

[sethschroeder]

With economy studios going for 5-10 points per night, you sell a lot of 50-100 point contracts. Don't even give blue card perks necessarily. So give budget guests a way to buy into DVC direct from Disney for under $10,000.

100%

I also think Disney could be "nice" and even allow you to convert your AOA contract to whatever is the shiny new active selling resort for a 25% trade-in fee. This basically allows them to sell you a financed contract for AOA, you pay it off in 4-5 years, and then you lose 25% of the value finally getting another financed contract for 4-5 years possibly giving 10 year terms for people who previously financed their AOA because again they are "nice".

We will see but as someone pointed out VGF is going be $35k or more for a contract and that starts to outpace a random purchase on vacation that DVC is built on.

 

[sethschroeder]

I believe a decent number thought Riviera would open for $200 a pt.

I don't think VGF would be happening if Reflections were moving forward and I think Reflections would be moving forward if not for COVID.

They're going to need something to sell behind Riviera with a 2070+ end date, so I don't see any major conversions happening as tack-on inventory to existing condo associations. I don't know how appealing ALK2 would be with a 2057 end date.

To be fair they can do a conversion with a new 50 year contract its how CCV was built. Thats why there was questions about VGF as an example about it being a new contract as opposed to just appended to the existing resort.

 

[tidefan]

Well, if they can actually roll a bunch of new points into an existing Condo Association (see THV and GFV2), what's stopping them from demolishing Aruba at CBR and creating a bunch of high point "Mediterranean Villas" to sell a bunch more points at RIV?

(Satire intended )

 

[10CJ]

I think they should do some conversions at Poly and make them 1 and 2 bedrooms, maybe even a few grand villas.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Well, if they can actually roll a bunch of new points into an existing Condo Association (see THV and GFV2), what's stopping them from demolishing Aruba at CBR and creating a bunch of high point "Mediterranean Villas" to sell a bunch more points at RIV?

(Satire intended )

Honestly nothing.

I think the question here is conversion vs. destroy and rebuild, or new site. Anything at CBR or PO would be a teardown. Contemporary GW or CC would realistically be a teardown. Reflections or a Poly Tower would be a new site.

 

[Bjaiken77]

Yeah, that’s what’s crazy about the VGF2 conversion. It literally requires no building whatsoever, so it’s a straight cash grab. You start building towers or new resorts, and the costs start cutting into the profits. They have nothing in the WDW pipeline that is new, and VGF2 is going to sell fast. Then what?

 

[Nabas]

They have nothing in the WDW pipeline that is new, and VGF2 is going to sell fast. Then what?

Animal Kingdom Lodge (972 rooms) will have 300 rooms more than the next largest Deluxe Resort, once the VGF2 conversion starts. Purely from a numbers perspective, converting another floor to DVC could be the way to go. However, its deed expires in 2057, meaning less than 35 years by the time Disney gets around to selling it. There are a few ways they could handle this.

They always could do another PVB (479 rooms) or GF (667 rooms after the conversion) building, or a floor at the Contemporary (655 rooms).

Presumably, they will start Reflections' replacement at some point, perhaps as a DVC-only resort.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I would buy Riverside DVC points in a heartbeat. I’d probably overpay for them too.

Man, I love that resort.

Sign me up and also willing to overpay! lol

 

[MissPixieDreamer]

Sign me up and also willing to overpay! lol

Me too. I'd be on waitlist already. Love that resort too!!

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I suspect PO would be a teardown (the balcony problem is real) and also significant retheme. The rename to Riverside didn't fix some of the underlying issues with the theme, and at some point I expect them to tackle that whether as a moderate hotel or as another approach.

(The full backstory on Dixie Landings has been rug swept, but it involves Antebellum cotton plantations, and while the full backstory never mentioned slavery... No one ran an antebellum cotton plantation with only paid labor. The storyline as originally written heads into at least the 1880s.)

 

[Bjaiken77]

One thing I will say, and this may be an unpopular opinion because I know DVC members love their deluxe resorts, but I’d be ok with a moderate level resort (maybe with some upgrades) if we can get a good point chart. All these new DVC point charts tend to be high.

especially if they have good location or transportation.

 

[Nabas]

One thing I will say, and this may be an unpopular opinion because I know DVC members love their deluxe resorts, but I’d be ok with a moderate level resort (maybe with some upgrades) if we can get a good point chart. All these new DVC point charts tend to be high.

There are a lot of people who would like to see a "Moderate DVC" resort.

I'm not sure Disney would do it. If Disney ever offered a lower-cost version of DVC, it might cannibalize their "Deluxe DVC" business.

 

[CraigInPA]

Yeah, that’s what’s crazy about the VGF2 conversion. It literally requires no building whatsoever, so it’s a straight cash grab.

On the contrary! While the outside of the building shouldn't be changing, the hotel rooms need to be converted to DVC deluxe suites, which require kitchens. If you were around when they did Poly, they gutted the entire structure and re-built it from the inside out over a period of several years.

 

[sethschroeder]

On the contrary! While the outside of the building shouldn't be changing, the hotel rooms need to be converted to DVC deluxe suites, which require kitchens. If you were around when they did Poly, they gutted the entire structure and re-built it from the inside out over a period of several years.

They are not Deluxe Studio Suites though they are Resort Studios which we don't know what that means yet. It could mean no kitchenette.

We just don't know yet.

 

[Bjaiken77]

One thing I will say, and this may be an unpopular opinion because I know DVC members love their deluxe resorts, but I’d be ok with a moderate level resort (maybe with some upgrades) if we can get a good point chart. All these new DVC point charts tend to be high.

On the contrary! While the outside of the building shouldn't be changing, the hotel rooms need to be converted to DVC deluxe suites, which require kitchens. If you were around when they did Poly, they gutted the entire structure and re-built it from the inside out over a period of several years.

Right, I got you. But it’s not a brick and mortar build from the ground up. Basically, it’s an advanced refurb. Still way cheaper than developing the land and building the villa.