Is DVC a good buy for someone who usually stays in moderates?

[Robbie Cottam]

It's a preference thing, I like not having make the bed and clean out the trash on vacation.

For me, Disney is for the kids, they get what they want! I actually bought DVC over a decade ago thinking I want to let my kids enjoy deluxe resorts.

Who makes a bed?
I though that was a thing my wife did just to drive me nuts....
It s really a thing?

 

[RoseGold]

Just to add, IDK if you're Nate of Mr. Morrow (no kids as of yet,) or simply a fan,

Mr. Morrow is local and in the parks all the time, so I doubt he would need this. And he gets comped stuff like club level, so doubt he's staying in moderates if he were staying on site.

 

[Brian Noble]

Roughly 12-13 nights total a year. Would DVC be a good purchase? Or would I never break even?

Those are two different questions. it might be a good purchase even if you would never break even. I think @zavandor has it right:

You'll not save a lot if anything at all, but if you buy resale you may get deluxe resorts for moderate pricing.

It's likely that a developer purchase will be somewhere between "spend more" and "maybe save a little in the very long run depending on the details." A resale purchase would do better.

However, you aren't getting the same vacations. You are staying in what are arguably nicer places. Even SSR and OKW, which have some features in common with a Mod (large, outdoor entries, multiple bus stops) will have lower guest density, better amenities, and larger rooms with balconies/patios.

You might ultimately decide that's a good value, and if it is something you can comfortably afford, might be worth doing.

 

[Brian Noble]

I also didn't click on the link with the spreadsheet up above, but one thing I've often seen left out of those is the time value of money, which can be very significant.

You are right, most people leave this off. But, MouseSavers does consider it, as another poster mentioned. It's really quite good.

As an aside, MouseSavers' current take is that you do not save money if you stay exclusively in a Moderate vs. a developer purchase.

 

[kellygreenjenny]

We just bought 200 points after years of debating and considering. We have gone at least once, usually twice per year since our first visit in 2012, except 2020. Add me to the chorus of "why didn't I do this earlier"... we went through every spreadsheet, cost calculation, logic exercise you can imagine over the years. At the end of the day, I think the 'real' reason or at least the final push is that apparently I have a mental block at spending $350/night on a hotel room anywhere, including my beloved WDW, and we paid that for our most recent trip last month in a moderate. I remember staying at both WL and poly for that price and considering it a splurge a few years ago. So then, once we decided to buy this time, it felt like an absolute no brainer. I also realized I was going to need to know I had member benefits (that I FULLY realize we will likely almost never use or benefit from). So bottom line, after trying to approach it clinically and logically for approx 10 years, our purchase ultimately was steeped in emotion and feeling. I couldn't be happier

 

[MartyParty]

We just bought 200 points after years of debating and considering. We have gone at least once, usually twice per year since our first visit in 2012, except 2020. Add me to the chorus of "why didn't I do this earlier"... we went through every spreadsheet, cost calculation, logic exercise you can imagine over the years. At the end of the day, I think the 'real' reason or at least the final push is that apparently I have a mental block at spending $350/night on a hotel room anywhere, including my beloved WDW, and we paid that for our most recent trip last month in a moderate. I remember staying at both WL and poly for that price and considering it a splurge a few years ago. So then, once we decided to buy this time, it felt like an absolute no brainer. I also realized I was going to need to know I had member benefits (that I FULLY realize we will likely almost never use or benefit from). So bottom line, after trying to approach it clinically and logically for approx 10 years, our purchase ultimately was steeped in emotion and feeling. I couldn't be happier

Congrats! Let me be the first to welcome you home.
Where did you end up at for a home resort?

 

[Mikey15]

It's a preference thing, I like not having make the bed and clean out the trash on vacation.

For me, Disney is for the kids, they get what they want! I actually bought DVC over a decade ago thinking I want to let my kids enjoy deluxe resorts.

Diff’rent strokes!

My wife has never gotten her head around people coming in our room to make the bed and clean while we’re out, probably because most of her trips growing up were either private cottage, in an RV, or in a timeshare. When we do stay in hotels, it’s usually just for a night while travelling, and the few we stay in multiple days she actually uses the “Do Not Disturb” sign during the day to discourage entry

So basically when we stay at timeshares we’re the ones making the bed and tidying up. It’s no different from home, but that’s how we like it!

We’re all about the in-unit laundry too. Carting down to a laundromat is something we’d never do, but having in-unit washer & dryer lets you pack so much lighter and gives a lot of flexibility.

 

[intamin]

For me, Disney is for the kids, they get what they want!

Nah little Billy, Disney is for ME. You’re just here for the ride

 

[Mikey15]

As an aside, MouseSavers' current take is that you do not save money if you stay exclusively in a Moderate vs. a developer purchase.

Direct vs Moderate, that makes total sense.

Your maintenance fees vs cash room savings are the same (*VGF does have lower dues than anywhere else except subsidized Aulani) but the buy-in is so much higher. On top of that , current direct resorts have much higher point charts if you want to actually stay in the premium resort you’re buying, versus spending the night at OKW, SSR, or AKV.

Phrased another way, a “cheap” week at VGF in a standard studio is 158 points, around the developer deal points count that many are currently buying. (Other resorts can be much less). If you dropped ~$180pp times 150pts to stay at VGF for an average of 7 nights per year, and you ignored TVM completely, you’d be down $27,000+$11,000 in the first 10 years, for 70 nights. That’s $543/night! Yes, you can factor in the remaining years, resale value if you sold after 10, etc, but the point stands that VGF isn’t going to actually save money over CSR, nor Riv over CBR.

Resale SSR and staying at OKW, SSR, etc, is what flips the math.

 

[aceshigh73]

Direct vs Moderate, that makes total sense.

Your maintenance fees vs cash room savings are the same (*VGF does have lower dues than anywhere else except subsidized Aulani) but the buy-in is so much higher. On top of that , current direct resorts have much higher point charts if you want to actually stay in the premium resort you’re buying, versus spending the night at OKW, SSR, or AKV.

Phrased another way, a “cheap” week at VGF in a standard studio is 158 points, around the developer deal points count that many are currently buying. (Other resorts can be much less). If you dropped ~$180pp times 150pts to stay at VGF for an average of 7 nights per year, and you ignored TVM completely, you’d be down $27,000+$11,000 in the first 10 years, for 70 nights. That’s $543/night! Yes, you can factor in the remaining years, resale value if you sold after 10, etc, but the point stands that VGF isn’t going to actually save money over CSR, nor Riv over CBR.

Resale SSR and staying at OKW, SSR, etc, is what flips the math.

Thank god someone finally brought up the Point chart at VGF (or Riv) when factoring in "its only $161pt". I know you can use it as SAP's, but still, your 12-month home resort has a CRAZY point chart and nobody factors that in.

 

[Sandisw]

Thank god someone finally brought up the Point chart at VGF (or Riv) when factoring in "its only $161pt". I know you can use it as SAP's, but still, your 12-month home resort has a CRAZY point chart and nobody factors that in

You are still paying that price. And, if it’s where you want to be that is all that matter.

Now, it’s obviously going to take more points to do the exact same nights and room size, but that doesn’t change how much you paid for those 150 points.

Basically, if it’s 4 nights at RIV or VGF vs 5 nights somewhere else doesn’t change what I spent. For us, we would rather do one night less and be at those places than others that cost less. The 11 month window is worth it.

 

[intamin]

Basically, if it’s 4 nights at RIV or VGF vs 5 nights somewhere else doesn’t change what I spent. For us, we would rather do one night less and be at those places than others that cost less. The 11 month window is worth it.

Yeup. Having that home resort priority on the resorts you actually like is so important. That standard BLT studio isn't going to be there the whole week most of the time if you don't own there and if that's where you want to stay every time then you better own there. For us it's the standard RIV studios/2BRs we wanted and we're perfectly fine staying there if our plans don't work out at 7 months, I may be paying a bit of a premium but if I'm really trying to extend the stay I can always drop it for SSR but no matter what happens I'm content with those rooms at RIV.

 

[Genie+]

Phrased another way, a “cheap” week at VGF in a standard studio is 158 points, around the developer deal points count that many are currently buying. (Other resorts can be much less). If you dropped ~$180pp times 150pts to stay at VGF for an average of 7 nights per year, and you ignored TVM completely, you’d be down $27,000+$11,000 in the first 10 years, for 70 nights. That’s $543/night! Yes, you can factor in the remaining years, resale value if you sold after 10, etc, but the point stands that VGF isn’t going to actually save money over CSR, nor Riv over CBR.

Not quite. The ‘cheapest’ 4 seasons out of 7 take 120-132 points for a week.

I paid $24.7k (includes all closing related costs) for 41 years of VGF 150pts. Dues are $7.33.

I have early next May booked Sunday thru Friday, 85pts for 5 nights. (Season 2)

The cost per point per year is $4 plus the $7.33 dues.

My cost is $963 - which is $193 a night. To stay at VGF.

Even if in 40yrs my $25k buy-in triples with TVM, $75k, my buy-in/dues still doesn’t surpass $20pp. Brings it to $340/nt.

I took the other 65pts, added 3 more, booked 4 nights and rented out $500/nt. More than covered my own 85pt usage this year where arguably there hasn’t even been a time value of money yet. $22.7k for 40.5 years of 150 VGF points.

VGF and Poly have higher point charts. I used to think the high points charts were just because MK area. After doing split stays with MK and EP DVC’s I realized more than location that justifies higher cost. Bigger studios, more nicely appointed imho, amazing resorts and amenities.

Am I saving money? No. I’m getting upgraded for committing to DVC and WDW trips.

 

[reddog21]

For me, Disney is for the kids, they get what they want!

Not a chance, the kids are lucky they get to go.

 

[take36]

Even if in 40yrs my $25k buy-in triples with TVM, $75k, my buy-in/dues still doesn’t surpass $20pp. Brings it to $340/nt.

I agree with your post and I did something similar for my Disney math. But most forecasts has a balanced investment strategy doubling every 8-12 years (inflation adjusted). You can take out the cost of trips during that time but 25k invested over 40 years will yield a lot more then 75k especially at the end of the contract when compounding really takes off and the contract winds down.

My "precious" Grand Californian which tripled at its height is still not worth as much as a simple broad market index investment (though it was at the beginning of a huge bull run).

 

[take36]

Not a chance, the kids are lucky they get to go.

Lol tough crowd in the DVC forum!

In the end, being able to afford many trips with my kids at a discount when bills are high (from raising said kids) and buying in when I was younger and had less expenses was worth the purchase for me. For some DVC is a luxury but with a regular income, DVC to me is a vacation managment tool. Nowadays with so many bills and responsibilities, its nice to know I prepaid for a vacation my family enjoys.

 

[tidefan]

Not quite. The ‘cheapest’ 4 seasons out of 7 take 120-132 points for a week.

I paid $24.7k (includes all closing related costs) for 41 years of VGF 150pts. Dues are $7.33.

I have early next May booked Sunday thru Friday, 85pts for 5 nights. (Season 2)

The cost per point per year is $4 plus the $7.33 dues.

My cost is $963 - which is $193 a night. To stay at VGF.

Nice! I ran this using our initial buy-in of $145 per point with 50 years left (and back then we didn't have closing costs). I came out to $173/night to stay at VGF...

 

[Mikey15]

I agree with your post and I did something similar for my Disney math. But most forecasts has a balanced investment strategy doubling every 8-12 years (inflation adjusted). You can take out the cost of trips during that time but 25k invested over 40 years will yield a lot more then 75k especially at the end of the contract when compounding really takes off and the contract winds down.

Of course to truly get that return you're keeping it all invested / reinvesting any distributions. Who needs a vacation!?

I think some far more interesting math would be investing the $25k & earmarking distributions for travel (say a high-yield dividend or interest strategy) = how much cash would you have to put in out of pocket to stay x nights in a moderate
vs.
the $25k tied up in DVC and then dues owing = how many nights' accommodations for the negative cash flow

Kind of like treating the $25k as sunk either way and then seeing what your negative cash flow becomes each year for the same nights of vacations.
I think first you peg the "how many nights" part based on the 150pt mark, to provide the X nights for the cash side of the comparison. Then you keep those dates apples-to-apples. This would ignore the capital gains potential on either side (which is possible, like in your case, for DVC, but eventually actually amortizes to zero), but could be fun to just look at on a cash basis.

 

[intamin]

Of course to truly get that return you're keeping it all invested / reinvesting any distributions. Who needs a vacation!?

This is the issue for me with the calculations that base on investing absolutely everything. People buy a brand new car instead of a used car and hardly anybody goes what if I had invested that money instead into a stock. Of course one is a necessity and the other is a purely luxury purchase but then you could just buy a used car and etc. much like resale. I feel a lot better buying DVC because this year alone I've been on 5 trips with the 6th coming up and not all of them were booked using DVC so obviously I'm spending the money anyways. My trips aren't always for 1 week at a time but so far I've probably spent about 25 days at Disney World this year.

 

[Sandisw]

This is the issue for me with the calculations that base on investing absolutely everything. People buy a brand new car instead of a used car and hardly anybody goes what if I had invested that money instead into a stock. Of course one is a necessity and the other is a purely luxury purchase but then you could just buy a used car and etc. much like resale. I feel a lot better buying DVC because this year alone I've been on 5 trips with the 6th coming up and not all of them were booked using DVC so obviously I'm spending the money anyways. My trips aren't always for 1 week at a time but so far I've probably spent about 25 days at Disney World this year.

Have to agree I lease cars vs buy because it’s what we prefer. So, we just didn’t feel that it was needed to go through that detailed of a financial look to decide. We would spend the money anyway as we long decided that financial security and enjoying life had to be balanced.

If someone wants to go through all of that, more power to them,