Typically it's the "older" models that have deals this time of year so I think your chances are pretty good of scoring a better deal. Last year on Black Friday
Walmart was giving $100 gift cards and Target $80 gift cards on the original Minis. There were several sales leading up to then that came pretty close to those prices.
Around March I got a random email from Target that they had a Cartwheel deal for 10% off + $30 gift card for an iPad Air.
Best Buy had them on sale for $50 off. I hightailed it to my nearest Target and they price matched for me (This is YMMV scenario it depends on your store and manager) and gave me the discount on top of it. I walked out of there paying less than I did for my rMini for an iPad Air and $60 iTunes card. I believe the manager's words were, "WOW!"
My advice would be to sign up for the ads, text alerts, ect. of the major stores near you. Comb the online sites every week, swing by the electronics departments when you are there, sometimes there are unadvertised deals you stumble upon. And of course check the DIS Budget Board daily, things should be heating up around here when it comes to sales very soon. Keep what you're willing to spend handy and be ready to strike when that deal comes along.
All this to say, yes, I think you'll be able to do at minimum $50 better but possibly more in the next month or so if you have patience and are willing to stalk retailers.

I have my eye on two 32GB rMinis for my kids and this is my plan. Worse case I buy the refurbs but I think there will be plenty of deals to choose from.