Increased ticket prices coming soon?

[Budshark]

What WILL prompt building a 5th gate will be when Disney can no longer guarantee the terms of admittance to a degree that guest tolerance reaches an all time low. If I go to Disney ANY time of the year, and two of the four parks are frequently closed to capacity such that I might not be able to get IN to the MK at all during my vacation, THEN WDW will build a fifth gate.

Unlikely. The costs and infrastructure associated with a 5th gate are incredibly high. There is no sign for an appetite for that.

In your scenario, they'd still have to fix the 2 parks that are at capacity. Or increase prices. Guess what they'll pick?

The problem is as has been discussed the current approach is to make DAK and HS full day parks. Keep plugging away on Epcot. And MK is already a multi-day park.

To add a 5th gate one major thing has to happen. Vacations have to be longer. Human capacity to walk around parks non-stop for >5-6 days has to be reached. Financial ability to support 7-8+ day trips has to be reached. Those factors are outside Disney's control.

Adding a 5th park to offset parks that are at capacity won't be enough. It implies that people choose to miss a park. Which isn't going to be acceptable. And if the thought is that they won't miss a park, because it'll spread people out, it implies people will visit all 5 parks. And 5 parks, not including Springs, water parks, etc. appears to be outside the acceptable norm. 4 parks is already pushing it. Making all 4 parks full day events is something I'm interested in watching because I know it affects our vacation planning. Be interesting to see what the feedback is (felt more rushed, didn't have enough time, upset about missing X) when we hit that point in the next 2-3 years.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Sure tourism is valuable to countries, but did a pavilion at Epcot actually do much to promote tourism? It's possible I guess, but color me highly skeptical.

I suspect that most countries have just found better ways to spend their advertising dollars, like... actual advertising, or tv shows or basically anything that doesn't require people to spend hundreds of dollars just to see it in the first place.

I'm gonna say you're closer to the target here than our esteemed colleague...though both points are valid.

If you remember the history of Epcot...remember that it did much to nearly bankrupt the company and gave us Eisner...it was the largest private construction project in history and remained so for along time...and the only reason they took the billions of cost in 1975-80 dollars was due to the sponsorship taking a big chunk of the operational cost off their hands so they could recoup the costs.

Sponsorship isn't that great of a deal...as evidenced starting in 1988-89 with the collapse of the Norway business venture. It's gotten worse since. At one point I think their biggest sponsor was Kodak...how's that going?

IBM? Amex?...it's just not that beneficially of a thing. They can't get nominal funds to sponsor exhibits in innoventions.

It's true that trade shows and expos do have a niche now...but it's more for a specific crowd of overspending tech heads.

Look at a line outside the apple store the next time they release the "newest" outdated, overpriced phone...

You'll see what I mean. That isn't Epcot or its hundreds of millions of operational cost each year.

 

[doconeill]

Unlikely. The costs and infrastructure associated with a 5th gate are incredibly high. There is no sign for an appetite for that.

In your scenario, they'd still have to fix the 2 parks that are at capacity. Or increase prices. Guess what they'll pick?

The problem is as has been discussed the current approach is to make DAK and HS full day parks. Keep plugging away on Epcot. And MK is already a multi-day park.

To add a 5th gate one major thing has to happen. Vacations have to be longer. Human capacity to walk around parks non-stop for >5-6 days has to be reached. Financial ability to support 7-8+ day trips has to be reached. Those factors are outside Disney's control.

Adding a 5th park to offset parks that are at capacity won't be enough. It implies that people choose to miss a park. Which isn't going to be acceptable. And if the thought is that they won't miss a park, because it'll spread people out, it implies people will visit all 5 parks. And 5 parks, not including Springs, water parks, etc. appears to be outside the acceptable norm. 4 parks is already pushing it. Making all 4 parks full day events is something I'm interested in watching because I know it affects our vacation planning. Be interesting to see what the feedback is (felt more rushed, didn't have enough time, upset about missing X) when we hit that point in the next 2-3 years.

I neglected to add that Disney will forestall a 5th park as long as possible through incremental expansions of the existing parks, which is already what they've been doing. But that has it's limits. There is quite a bit of land around the existing parks, but most of it is deemed unbuildable.

Yes, a 5th gate is an enormous capital expense, and it is not coming any time soon. But eventually they will have to build it, or price many guests out of their vacations, which could easily backfire for them.

Right now WDW has more to offer than Universal still, so WDW commands much more of precious vacation time. And they started locking people on property with Magical Express. But Universal seems to be positioning itself for a huge expansion. People will look at WDW and say, "It's the same four parks...Universal's got entirely new stuff", and WDW could see it's numbers drop significantly in the long term if they don't at least have some sort of major expansion plan.

However, Burbank would have to stop funneling money to losing ventures and bailouts before WDW can ever spend the capital needed.

 

[Eoghann]

The 2010 expo in Shanghai had more people attend that the 1964-1965 New York World's Fair (which, by the way, wasn't an "official" sanctioned World's Fair)

It was Shanghai, a city with a population of 14 million in a country with 1.3 billion people so I'm not sure beating the New York fair is actually that impressive. My point isn't so much towards attendance in terms of raw numbers as whether people really care about them.

Regardless of why people go to Epcot, I think they want to distinguish themselves as something more than a giant food court.

Yes I would hope so. I just doing think doing what was done before is the answer.

 

[Eoghann]

I neglected to add that Disney will forestall a 5th park as long as possible through incremental expansions of the existing parks, which is already what they've been doing. But that has it's limits. There is quite a bit of land around the existing parks, but most of it is deemed unbuildable.

Yes, a 5th gate is an enormous capital expense, and it is not coming any time soon. But eventually they will have to build it, or price many guests out of their vacations, which could easily backfire for them.

In which case we mostly agree. I just think it's so far off (decades) that the continued chatter about it makes no sense at all.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

To add a 5th gate one major thing has to happen. Vacations have to be longer. Human capacity to walk around parks non-stop for >5-6 days has to be reached. Financial ability to support 7-8+ day trips has to be reached. Those factors are outside Disney's control.

Adding a 5th park to offset parks that are at capacity won't be enough. It implies that people choose to miss a park. Which isn't going to be acceptable. And if the thought is that they won't miss a park, because it'll spread people out, it implies people will visit all 5 parks. And 5 parks, not including Springs, water parks, etc. appears to be outside the acceptable norm. 4 parks is already pushing it. Making all 4 parks full day events is something I'm interested in watching because I know it affects our vacation planning. Be interesting to see what the feedback is (felt more rushed, didn't have enough time, upset about missing X) when we hit that point in the next 2-3 years.

Anytime anyone says "I think a fifth park is coming...WDMW!!!"

The above quote should be offered - and the subject should be dropped.

It really is the harsh reality - and that is from the DISNEY side of it.

Americans aren't getting more vacations...most will never get more vacation dollars...Americans will always be the target audience.

Here endeth the lesson

 

[skier_pete]

I always chuckle at the fifth park talk. Why do people even WANT a fifth park. More attractions? Way better for Disney to put more rides in existing parks, you get more bang for the buck. The last time they built a new gate they spent a billion and we got like 7 new attractions. Now they'd have to spend $3 billion. Rather have them spend that money on bringing existing parks up to speed.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I always chuckle at the fifth park talk. Why do people even WANT a fifth park. More attractions? Way better for Disney to put more rides in existing parks, you get more bang for the buck. The last time they built a new gate they spent a billion and we got like 7 new attractions. Now they'd have to spend $3 billion. Rather have them spend that money on bringing existing parks up to speed.

Here, here...

Not only that...but Disney only "officially" copped to about $880 mil for DAK...

But if you lifted the internal shell game for that the perception is it was more like $2-2.2 billion in truth. Hence Mikey's somewhat schitzophrenic reactions to a park HE championed from day 1 after opening.

The desire for a "fifth gate" is in many cases Clinging to an outdated Cold War view of things when it comes to Disney parks...and ignores the reality of park cannibalization that is prevelant/evident if you do more than scratch the surface when you start talking about these things...

 

[Mac30188]

But do you see the major problem with the attendance between the four parks? MK is getting nearly 20 million a year, then you have a large drop off. Epcot is getting around 12 million, than both AK and DHS in the 10s. MK is almost double two of the other parks, that's insane. They need to spread that out before they build a 5th gate.

That is my thoughts as well. You have empty buildings at Epcot. You are just filling out AK to finally be a full day park. There are so many ways to expand capacity that does not include a 5th park. Not to mention the economic model of eventually there are only so many days a family can stay at Disney. This just doesn't seem like the right time for that option.

 

[seascapemvy]

I neglected to add that Disney will forestall a 5th park as long as possible through incremental expansions of the existing parks, which is already what they've been doing. But that has it's limits. There is quite a bit of land around the existing parks, but most of it is deemed unbuildable.

Yes, a 5th gate is an enormous capital expense, and it is not coming any time soon. But eventually they will have to build it, or price many guests out of their vacations, which could easily backfire for them.

Right now WDW has more to offer than Universal still, so WDW commands much more of precious vacation time. And they started locking people on property with Magical Express. But Universal seems to be positioning itself for a huge expansion. People will look at WDW and say, "It's the same four parks...Universal's got entirely new stuff", and WDW could see it's numbers drop significantly in the long term if they don't at least have some sort of major expansion plan.

However, Burbank would have to stop funneling money to losing ventures and bailouts before WDW can ever spend the capital needed.

I used to think a 5th park was needed. However expanding Hollywood Studios outside its border shows WDW has lots of possibilities to expand existing gates without the expense a 5th gate would add. Animal Kingdom has more than enough land to add Australia and the Americas and there are lots of possibilities for expanding Epcot. As for Magic Kingdom the could expand in 3 directions outside the existing border. Based on these options it can be many years before they need a 5th gate and in the mean time they could still add more than enough capacity for 75 million quests.

 

[Mac30188]

The more I think about it the more I think that the original concept for Epcot (both front and back) is simply outdated in the age of the internet. There's a reason that nobody pays any attention to Worlds Fairs any more (yes they still go on). Let's be honest people aren't visiting Epcot to learn about countries. They're going there to drink and eat.

I think any efforts to just update Epcot as more of what it used to be are doomed to failure.

What about Future world? IMHO, this should be the solid base of rides that holds the park with the world pavilions being the attraction that makes it unique. With Soarin and Test Track they have 2 very solid headliners, but they need a couple more headliners and improve the quality of some of the 2nd tier rides to really boost attendance significantly. To a certain extent I think Epcot is one of the easiest to repair. It already has the space cleared and most of the infrastructure in place. They just have to get back to the basics of building good rides. While I doubt they will all be as easy as Frozen, from a cost/benefit analysis Frozen will be a home run. Massively popular ride with very low cost to start up.

 

[doconeill]

I used to think a 5th park was needed. However expanding Hollywood Studios outside its border shows WDW has lots of possibilities to expand existing gates without the expense a 5th gate would add. Animal Kingdom has more than enough land to add Australia and the Americas and there are lots of possibilities for expanding Epcot. As for Magic Kingdom the could expand in 3 directions outside the existing border. Based on these options it can be many years before they need a 5th gate and in the mean time they could still add more than enough capacity for 75 million quests.

I'm not disagreeing, but if you are looking at a map and saying there is "plenty of space" still, you're not dealing with the suitability of that land for building. There was a map that was included in a report - I think it was the 2020 Master Plan - that showed the map of the property and also showed what areas that were deemed suitable. A lot of that land surrounding the parks is not considered suitable.

 

[Roxyfire]

It's true that trade shows and expos do have a niche now...but it's more for a specific crowd of overspending tech heads.

There's a few companies I can think off right off the bat that would be beneficial. Sphero, the guys who made that expensive phone controlled bb8 come to mind quickly. And I think Iger is a big investor there right? Plus you have Oculus Rift which yes is owned by facebook but I'm sure they'd find some benefit in the market. As would Tesla or SpaceX, not sure that Elon Musk would be a good fit for disney. If they really were committed to using the space, there's ways to get things done. But that's assuming they want to spend the money on this rather than coast along doing the bare minimum.

 

[jade1]

To be honest it almost feels like a 5th park is under way at WDW, almost entirely movie related. Kind of like a mad scientist was given an open check book or something to counter US.

If what is happening was in a new park maybe located between MK and AK and it had:

Disney Springs as the shopping/dining/entertainment district of the park.

The Star Wars land we are seeing.

The Star Wars Fireworks show they are planning.

Toy Story Land.

A 3rd and 4th phase planned.

A separate Soarin Screen.

A TSM Track.

The new Frozen ride and M&G.

ROL for the "2nd" night show.

The Avatar Pandora Land and rides.

The Night Safari.

And the new MK hub for the night shows.

GF/POLY/WL DVC's as well to try out.

 

[Eoghann]

What about Future world? IMHO, this should be the solid base of rides that holds the park with the world pavilions being the attraction that makes it unique. With Soarin and Test Track they have 2 very solid headliners, but they need a couple more headliners and improve the quality of some of the 2nd tier rides to really boost attendance significantly. To a certain extent I think Epcot is one of the easiest to repair. It already has the space cleared and most of the infrastructure in place. They just have to get back to the basics of building good rides. While I doubt they will all be as easy as Frozen, from a cost/benefit analysis Frozen will be a home run. Massively popular ride with very low cost to start up.

Neither Soarin' or Test Track have anything to do with the early vision for Epcot which kind of goes back to my point. They made a big deal "edutainment" but really haven't shown the ability to execute on that. Add on top of that the difficult of keeping "cutting edge science" exhibits remotely topical and I think the answer honestly is to do something different. Whether that is just going for rides for rides sake (as in most parks) or finding a new theme to hang things on.

 

[Eoghann]

I'm not disagreeing, but if you are looking at a map and saying there is "plenty of space" still, you're not dealing with the suitability of that land for building. There was a map that was included in a report - I think it was the 2020 Master Plan - that showed the map of the property and also showed what areas that were deemed suitable. A lot of that land surrounding the parks is not considered suitable.

With the exception of DHS, there's unused land inside the park boundaries.

 

[Eoghann]

With the exception of DHS, there's unused land inside the park boundaries.

Let me correct myself. There's actually unused land at DHS too but only because they closed a bunch of stuff.

 

[Mac30188]

Neither Soarin' or Test Track have anything to do with the early vision for Epcot which kind of goes back to my point. They made a big deal "edutainment" but really haven't shown the ability to execute on that. Add on top of that the difficult of keeping "cutting edge science" exhibits remotely topical and I think the answer honestly is to do something different. Whether that is just going for rides for rides sake (as in most parks) or finding a new theme to hang things on.

That is very true. You are correct in there is no way of a fully functional city of tomorrow being a viable entertainment option, however I do think there is a middle ground between a fully functional city of tomorrow and throw everything away and start over. I am just not ready to throw in the towel on future world (but maybe I am just being idealistic and nostalgic) I really think it is more about the execution. Some of the rides/entertainment just does not feel up to the high Disney standards. I definitely think Epcot is a huge source of untapped potential. You have so much of the cost already in place when compared to a 5th park it would seem like low hanging fruit.

 

[iamsarahpotts]

To be honest it almost feels like a 5th park is under way at WDW, almost entirely movie related. Kind of like a mad scientist was given an open check book or something to counter US.

If what is happening was in a new park maybe located between MK and AK and it had:

Disney Springs as the shopping/dining/entertainment district of the park.

The Star Wars land we are seeing.

The Star Wars Fireworks show they are planning.

Toy Story Land.

A 3rd and 4th phase planned.

A separate Soarin Screen.

A TSM Track.

The new Frozen ride and M&G.

ROL for the "2nd" night show.

The Avatar Pandora Land and rides.

The Night Safari.

And the new MK hub for the night shows.

GF/POLY/WL DVC's as well to try out.

I think the thing is though, a lot of that list is improving/expanding something that already exists rather than a "from scratch" sort of thing. I mean obviously Star Wars, Toy Story, Pandora and ROL are new (and that's awesome) but everything else is more "finally this stuff is getting some updating and attention." It still all costs money though - new or not!

 

[jade1]

I think the thing is though, a lot of that list is improving/expanding something that already exists rather than a "from scratch" sort of thing. I mean obviously Star Wars, Toy Story, Pandora and ROL are new (and that's awesome) but everything else is more "finally this stuff is getting some updating and attention." It still all costs money though - new or not!

True, but even a park with Star Wars Land, Toy Story Land, Avatar and Pandora, ROL and Star Wars Fireworks show would be a very good start for a 5th park IMO. A ticket I would buy for sure. PH3 and PH 4 contribute even further.

The rest indeed are improvements and additions, but coming soon none the less.

And those contribute to the "feel" of a new park coming, at least sitting here on the frozen tundra.