If you were a betting man…

[AC168]

I am wondering if Disney will get greedy and make the point charts so high on VDH that VGC contracts become even more expensive

I agree. I don’t think they’ll do this but it wouldn’t totally be crazy to start pricing at VDH near 300 which would make VGC’s current resale prices be relatively low.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I agree. I don’t think they’ll do this but it wouldn’t totally be crazy to start pricing at VDH near 300 which would make VGC’s current resale prices be relatively low.

I think a lot of people are speculating that they might be around 220pp but I have a feeling they will be higher just because even with a whole new tower, there's just a lot less inventory than compared to WDW resorts.

 

[Bearval]

A lot of wishful thinking here. Some of these prices folks are coming up with are close to what they were when we came out of the Great Recession and this isn’t that. The parks are filled to the brim. Would I love to snag a contract for a song! Yea! And for sure things will come back to earth but they aren’t going to be pre- 2017 prices.

And VGC, yeah I own there and I paid a great price years ago TG, but I am certain that VDH is going to make VGC that much more coveted. VDH is NOT VGC. Only Disney Seas has a hotel with a better location. The restaurants, the grandeur. Yeah a lot of people are gonna walk through and wish they didn’t have to keep walking another 15 minutes.

The Great Recession ended June 2009 according to Google so these resale contracts have 14 less years left on them so they “should “ have naturally gone down in value.

 

[tom1944]

The years until expiration have to factor into the price.

Nominal differences in years may not but 14 years is almost a third of the contract.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

The years until expiration have to factor into the price.

Nominal differences in years may not but 14 years is almost a third of the contract.

DVC didn’t fully rebound from the GR until 2017. Ask the vets here. It was really ramping up in 15/16 and then the prices went way up after VGF and then Poly etc.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

One more I forgot to ask:

If you were in the market right this second for a purchase, what resort do you think holds the most value? What resorts would you absolutely not consider?

I think CCV holds the best resale value. Great point chart, 2068 expiration date, MK resort area. All room categories available.

BLT: Monorail resort, extra bathroom, walk to MK. Good point chart for standard view rooms.

VGF and Poly: High point charts, great resorts - walking and monorail to MK. High point charts - but great resorts - should maintain good value

SSR, OKW, AKV - next round of expiration dates in the 2050's after the 42's All resorts are not directly tied to a park, but have other nice features such as savannah view rooms, club level rooms, great point charts, access to Disney Springs. Point charts have great value and points go far and all room choices available.

RIV: Beautiful but limited transportation to skyline-could be plus or minus, resale limited to only RIV which hurts. Point chart on the high side - not as high as GF, but still high.

BCV, BWV, BR, 2042 resorts We will start to see their value drop - but BW and BC will still be desirable.

In terms of what resort would I not consider - none of the 2042 resorts. I proceed with caution on RIV due to restrictions. If restrictions become standard in all new resorts or were in place when we purchased, I doubt we would have ever made the initial purchase.
I also am not sure what disney will look like 10 years down the line. Part of the "bubble effect" was due to the Ready Creek Development which will be ending.
Love my DVC - not sure how I feel about changes that have occurred especially the restrictions

 

[RamblinWreck]

One more I forgot to ask:

If you were in the market right this second for a purchase, what resort do you think holds the most value? What resorts would you absolutely not consider?

I'd say the ones that will hold the most value will be the ones in premium locations transportation-wise. More specifically, the monorail resorts. And also Copper Creek.

Riviera has the Skyliner, but also the restrictions. That one seems less certain.

The resorts like Boardwalk and Beach Club that are walkable to different parks (and walkable to the skyliner if you don't want to walk as far to HS) would be after that on my list. With their downside being the dwindling contract length as time goes on.

 

[gobears157]

1.) When does the ROFR monster awaken from its peaceful slumber?

September 2023

2.) When will the correction end and we start to see a climb again listed price per point?

September 2023. But the increases in prices will be slow and steady. I don't see a repeat of the crazy jumps we saw in 2021 and early 2022

3.) What will price per point look like on all the resorts by the end of this year? Who retains the crown for most sought after contract? Which resorts drop like rocks?

Grand Cal loses its crown as most "in demand" contract. Grand Cal will likely drop like a rock when VDH goes on sale. Beach Club and Boardwalk will remain in demand despite 2042 expiration. Other 2042 resorts start to fall fast. Poly resale becomes the "most sought after contract" when it's announced that Poly2 will be part of the same association. (Sort of the reverse of what happened with VGF, which was expensive and undercut by direct pricing). Poly is cheap and now there will be a more compelling reason to own there - putting upward pressure on existing Poly resale.

Biggest winner: Poly resale
Biggest loser: Grand Cal

Price predictions:
VGF - 170
PVB - 170
BLT - 165
CCV - 165
BRV - 100
BWV - 135
BCV - 155
RR - 135
AKV - 130
SSR - 115
OKW - 100
VGC - 200
AUL - 115
HH - 70
VB - 60


4.) Will we see a big buy in of new resale owners due to this perfect storm of more affordable inventory and the ROFR lady’s hiatus? Will this create a climb in price?

Probably not. I don't think prices are going to get low enough to spawn a huge wave of resale buyers. I think some people will take advantage of the good prices and that they will slowly drift upward again. Nothing ground shaking.


5.) If you were in the market right this second for a purchase, what resort do you think holds the most value? What resorts would you absolutely not consider?

With the announcement of VDH on-sale date imminent, I would not buy at Grand Cal. It's been cratering recently and no reason for it to stop once Disney drastically increases supply in a shiny new building.

If you like to gamble, buy Poly. You can probably find it really cheap (cheaper than BLT, VGF, CCV, BCV) and it has reasonably low dues. If Poly2 is the same association then Poly1 is a big winner. You'll likely need to own Poly to book the new tower, which will make it necessary to own and drive up demand. However, if it's a new association, Poly1 value drops. Biggest risk, biggest reward potential.

I also think Grand Floridian resale offers great value right now. It's come off it's high prices, has low dues, and a long expiration. It's one of the most affordable resorts to own right now and has good potential for appreciation. Copper Creek is also right up there. One of the most affordable to own, studios are very in demand, must own for key times, and good potential for appreciation.

Saratoga, Aulani, and Riviera are also cheap to own and maintain, but I think less potential for appreciation.

I've really only followed AUL since that's my target home resort. Based on your prediction, do you think AUL will rebound? AUL prices are already consistently below 115 (most reported purchases here seem to be between 90-105).

 

[happythoughts & pixiedust]

I've really only followed AUL since that's my target home resort. Based on your prediction, do you think AUL will rebound? AUL prices are already consistently below 115 (most reported purchases here seem to be between 90-105).

Yeah, maybe 115 is a little high. I do think prices will come off their lows. I think the average of AUL selling now is probably around 105-110. Definitely can find deals for lower, and always have with AUL since no ROFR. But I do think everything will come off the lows including Aulani.