If the flattening isn't working is it time to face reality?

[erc]

Legit or not, its still scary that so many are more worried about the economy over peoples lives.

It is not all or nothing. A depression will result in poverty, poor health, and death. I think everyone needs to care about both in a proper ratio.

 

[JimMIA]

The problem is that healthcare is tied to employment in the US. We don’t have nationalized healthcare, so if you lose your job, you lose your insurance. Great system, right?

Italy, Spain, Iran, China all have nationalized healthcare. Just sayin'.

 

[Jrb1979]

I understand that money is important. IMO until these cases start slowing down there shouldn't be a rush to go back to normal and open everything. If people would stay home except for work or essentials it would help a lot.

 

[Jrb1979]

It is not all or nothing. A depression will result in poverty, poor health, and death. I think everyone needs to care about both in a proper ratio.

In your opinion what is the proper ratio? Keep everything open but limit the amount of people allowed in places at one time?

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

That particular situation is causing major culture shock here in Miami right now, lol.

Here, the only way to say hello is an "abrazo" and a "bessito." If you don't, you get, "Baby, you mad at me?"

But we're adjusting...slowly.

I really hadn't considered about cultural but you are so right. That must be so hard to work with when you're so used to it being part of your very being

It hasn't been too too difficult yet for my husband's family because we really haven't seen each other but they are so big on hugs. Mother-in-law gives a hug pretty much every time we see her so that's going to be something we'll have to get used to in the future for however long they suggest it be done.

 

[gwynne]

The site below has a model that gives good visuals and information of why flattening the curve matters.

https://covidactnow.org/

 

[erc]

In your opinion what is the proper ratio? Keep everything open but limit the amount of people allowed in places at one time?

I guess I would say if we reach April 7 and it isn't looking any better. Might as well open things up and realize that we can't stop it. Ultimately 99.4% of those who catch it will survive. So try the flattening until the 7th and then let's get the economy back to work. So that would be my ratio.

 

[holden]

I've resigned myself to this life (self-isolation - me and my family) for a while. It's been going pretty well. Kids have school work to do, which keeps them busy for 4-6hrs a day. We've been baking and trying new recipes, cleaning out closets and teaching the kids how to deep clean for spring, washing and detailing cars. I think we have enough to do at our house to keep us busy for a long time.

I can't control the idiots who are going to the beach or Target for an unnecessary trip. I can control what we do in our own house.

 

[Colleen27]

I just heard it on NPR, saying something like "If we get what we need people will live, if we don't people will die" That may sound measured but it is panic to me. That is basically saying at the numbers we are at currently it is already overwhelming.

That doesn't sound like panic to me. It does sound like he's refusing to sugarcoat things. He was talking about the lack of PPE as well as of treatment resources like ventilators, and the PPE may actually be the more important component because it keeps hospital staff from falling ill or becoming a vehicle for the virus to travel from the known-sick to presumed health people outside of the hospital setting.

@erc and those that are more worried about the economy looks like business will probably be back to normal sooner rather then later. It sounds like the White House is going to suggest to people it will be ok to go back to work as long as they wear masks.

I really hope we do start seeing more measured responses to the economic impact, based on actual risk assessment rather than the idea that we can literally shut the whole country down for a couple weeks and this will somehow miraculously go away.

DH just got word today that under the terms of the governor's new stay at home order, he may not be allowed to continue working as he and his boss had planned. Production in his plant shut down last week and the whole building was closed for one day for a deep cleaning, similar to what they do when they have a caustic material spill, before maintenance was allowed back in. His team is four people - his boss and IT guy, who both work remotely more often than not under ordinary circumstances, him and his assistant, who do the physical repairs. He's literally the only one in the building right now, and his assistant is the only one in their second plant. They developed a detailed plan to keep the two of them working for at least the first couple weeks of the shutdown without ever encountering another human - if the assistant can't handle a particular repair, they switch locations for a day to allow DH to do the more complicated tasks. Even the parts supplier they use for supplies they don't keep on hand went to contactless delivery a week ago, so there's absolutely no human exposure in continuing to work. But because the governor's order doesn't exempt their entire industry (for good reason - social distancing on a production line is impossible), they may be forced to scrap this whole plan and just lay the guys off instead.

But hey, there are a half-dozen restaurants, from McDonalds to high-end seafood, serving take out and delivery in my town, and the governor says those are essential.

 

[Heather07438]

Many problems with hospitals and care, as Italy is sharing. It goes well beyond bed counts for even wealthy communities.

Hope we don't have to see this firsthand. Can we reel the new cases back in to very low over the next several weeks with the current measures? That could buy time to figure out how to test test test while implementing a functional track and trace program for when society does re-open.

Can we get back to some type of new normality that doesn't include shutting most things down or resulting in disastrous healthcare?
I think we have the potential to overcome. Let the wise, experienced, and unbiased lead us into a shared dedication.

 

[RamblingMad]

Many problems with hospitals and care, as Italy is sharing. It goes well beyond bed counts for even wealthy communities.

Hope we don't have to see this firsthand. Can we reel the new cases back in to very low over the next several weeks with the current measures? That could buy time to figure out how to test test test while implementing a functional track and trace program for when society does re-open.

Can we get back to some type of new normality that doesn't include shutting most things down or resulting in disastrous healthcare?
I think we have the potential to overcome. Let the wise, experienced, and unbiased lead us into a shared dedication.

All this pandemic does is show how unprepared we are and how fragile our existing system is today.

 

[JimMIA]

I really hadn't considered about cultural but you are so right. That must be so hard to work with when you're so used to it being part of your very being

We're working on social-distancing air hugs -- not the same, but they convey the thought at least.

 

[momto2girls]

I've resigned myself to this life (self-isolation - me and my family) for a while. It's been going pretty well. Kids have school work to do, which keeps them busy for 4-6hrs a day. We've been baking and trying new recipes, cleaning out closets and teaching the kids how to deep clean for spring, washing and detailing cars. I think we have enough to do at our house to keep us busy for a long time.

I can't control the idiots who are going to the beach or Target for an unnecessary trip. I can control what we do in our own house.

This is what we are resigned to as well. We are following strict isolation procedures in our house. Regardless of what the rest of the world does, it is what we will continue to do.

 

[Lynne M]

The numbers we are getting are from tests, but the United States has started testing late. So, how old are these outbreaks? Who know! The fact that new cases are reported doesn't mean whose are new infections. They could be weeks old!

The current tests look for the presence of the virus itself. Someone who was ill weeks ago and has recovered would (presumably) no longer be carrying the virus at detectable levels.

If you want to identify those who have had the virus in the past, you need to test for antibodies to the virus. That type of test is in the works now.

 

[Colleen27]

It is not all or nothing. A depression will result in poverty, poor health, and death. I think everyone needs to care about both in a proper ratio.

Exactly. It looks like the governor's order means both my husband and son will be laid off by the end of the day. That means that when we can't afford our $135/week employee share of our health insurance premium on the $330ish that unemployment pays in our state, our whole household of five loses medical insurance. And that's assuming DH's employer is generous enough to continue paying the employer share (which we know they intend to do for a short time, but likely cannot afford to do for months). Since there are already horror stories circulating about thousands of dollars to rule out COVID19 and tens of thousands for treatment of a fairly moderate case, it is hard to say I wouldn't think about costs, especially in the event of a mild suspected case. But we're fortunate - none of us have ongoing medical issues that could become serious or life threatening without access to care. Many others aren't so lucky.

 

[erc]

The site below has a model that gives good visuals and information of why flattening the curve matters.

https://covidactnow.org/

I posted this in its own thread but this guy thinks we will be successful with flattening:

https://news.yahoo.com/why-nobel-laureate-predicts-quicker-210318391.html

 

[mom2rtk]

Exactly. It looks like the governor's order means both my husband and son will be laid off by the end of the day. That means that when we can't afford our $135/week employee share of our health insurance premium on the $330ish that unemployment pays in our state, our whole household of five loses medical insurance. And that's assuming DH's employer is generous enough to continue paying the employer share (which we know they intend to do for a short time, but likely cannot afford to do for months). Since there are already horror stories circulating about thousands of dollars to rule out COVID19 and tens of thousands for treatment of a fairly moderate case, it is hard to say I wouldn't think about costs, especially in the event of a mild suspected case. But we're fortunate - none of us have ongoing medical issues that could become serious or life threatening without access to care. Many others aren't so lucky.

We're in a somewhat similar situation. Except with the complicating fact that my husband is 61 and his odds for finding another good job in the midst of epidemic unemployment wouldn't be good. The hammer hasn't fallen yet, but I don't think it will take long.

 

[tzolkin]

The numbers we are at are currently overwhelming. A nurse posted on our local Facebook page asking folks to please make masks for her hospital, in NE NJ so certainly not the boonies. My SIL is a nurse, she says it’s bad.

The issue is we already have a shortage of protective equipment. So even if you have no COVID-19 cases in your local hospital, they still don't have the masks, etc. they need to treat "regular" patients.

Is it the lack of protective equipment or the numbers of patients that makes it overwhelming already? We have 924,000 hospital beds and about 3,000 coronavirus hospitalizations nationwide right now.

Both.

Lack of PPE is a problem across the country. Hospitals are having to come up with solutions (having cloth masks produced, setting up rooms with UV to sanitize cloth masks, etc) Even with normal use most places are down to less than a ONE WEEK supply and there is no more coming.

Also, I I'm not sure if this is your intention, but a lot of your comments come off as very dismissive or that you think people are just lying. "Yeah right, they're overwhelmed. There are almost a million beds and only 3000 patients." Simply lying in a bed in a hospital is not what is going to save someone's life in this situation. They need specific equipment to receive proper care and the staff need protective gear so they don't all get sick and then there is no one left to administer the care.

US hospitals have about 100,000 ICU beds (so that brings us down to 11% of your original bed number) and even fewer ventilators. And, those machines are not evenly distributed throughout the country. Many places are going to need way more than what they have onsite. An average hospital may have about 20, so it makes no difference how many total beds they have, they can only treat a maximum of 20 patients who need a ventilator.

One could argue that there are more at other hospitals, but the hospitals with extra are not going to ship all their equipment somewhere else in case they need it if COVID-19 increases in their area, right? So a good number of those ventilators may sit there unused "just in case".

 

[3threebabies]

That doesn't sound like panic to me. It does sound like he's refusing to sugarcoat things. He was talking about the lack of PPE as well as of treatment resources like ventilators, and the PPE may actually be the more important component because it keeps hospital staff from falling ill or becoming a vehicle for the virus to travel from the known-sick to presumed health people outside of the hospital setting.




I really hope we do start seeing more measured responses to the economic impact, based on actual risk assessment rather than the idea that we can literally shut the whole country down for a couple weeks and this will somehow miraculously go away.

DH just got word today that under the terms of the governor's new stay at home order, he may not be allowed to continue working as he and his boss had planned. Production in his plant shut down last week and the whole building was closed for one day for a deep cleaning, similar to what they do when they have a caustic material spill, before maintenance was allowed back in. His team is four people - his boss and IT guy, who both work remotely more often than not under ordinary circumstances, him and his assistant, who do the physical repairs. He's literally the only one in the building right now, and his assistant is the only one in their second plant. They developed a detailed plan to keep the two of them working for at least the first couple weeks of the shutdown without ever encountering another human - if the assistant can't handle a particular repair, they switch locations for a day to allow DH to do the more complicated tasks. Even the parts supplier they use for supplies they don't keep on hand went to contactless delivery a week ago, so there's absolutely no human exposure in continuing to work. But because the governor's order doesn't exempt their entire industry (for good reason - social distancing on a production line is impossible), they may be forced to scrap this whole plan and just lay the guys off instead.

But hey, there are a half-dozen restaurants, from McDonalds to high-end seafood, serving take out and delivery in my town, and the governor says those are essential.

I have read specifics for many areas stay at home orders. Most do include waivers for the minimal essential personnel required to maintain safe working environments for shut down businesses and industries. From your description, it sounds as if DH and assistant would qualify as essential personnel. For example, in NYC, doormen are essential. At first I was like...wut...then I remembered. There are buildings in NYC where residents couldn’t access the front door or other necessary building areas without a doorman.

 

[FlightlessDuck]

The current tests look for the presence of the virus itself. Someone who was ill weeks ago and has recovered would (presumably) no longer be carrying the virus at detectable levels.

If you want to identify those who have had the virus in the past, you need to test for antibodies to the virus. That type of test is in the works now.

Ok, maybe I should specify: How do we know if the numbers we are see reported are new cases since people started staying home? Median incubation period is 5 days (source), right? How long does it take to recover if untreated? Doesn't it depend on the individual?

So, the people who are tested today and are reported today... when did they get sick?

I mean, heck, West Virginia only started testing like 5 days ago, right?