I won't give in till I reach the end... and then I'll start again (comments welcome)

[Herding_Cats]

Start the races at 2AM, space out the corrals over a couple of hours and make the pace requirement even slower… that gives plenty of time to all to finish before park opening and removes some bottlenecks.

AND extend the POT to 2:45, and if you don't submit a POT you get put in a "later" corral for 10mi and longer races. Which might help take care of some of the "race etiquette" issues since you would theoretically have fewer first-timers.

Quit making us run on narrow sidewalks to a backstage area at mile 3 when we could just run through the main entrance of Epcot.

 

[Naomeri]

Start the races at 2AM, space out the corrals over a couple of hours and make the pace requirement even slower… that gives plenty of time to all to finish before park opening and removes some bottlenecks.

Think how much easier it would be to get dark sky pics at the castle! And not running in the full sun on all the highway miles? I’m sold on your plan

 

[DopeyBadger]

Start the races at 2AM, space out the corrals over a couple of hours and make the pace requirement even slower… that gives plenty of time to all to finish before park opening and removes some bottlenecks.

I was thinking 4am, but alright 2am it is. Assuming with the extension of the corral release, you're going with a similar Balloon Lady finish time of ~1pm. And also exiting MK by 8:45am or so. So what time do the balloon ladies start? 4am? So that extends the gun time to balloon lady window by an hour from 60 min to 120 min.

So the first people start at 2am and the last people 4am (assuming). That means the balloon ladies will be maintaining a 9 hour finish (20:36 min/mile) if we aim for 1pm. For simplicity, we'll say 20:30 pace. In order to finish at 1pm, the balloon ladies will now get to MK at 7:35am instead of 8:48am. So no issues with MK opening in time. The balloon ladies now arrive at Everest at 9:45am. So that unfortunately cuts off 45 min from the availability of riding Everest from 7:25-9:45 instead of 10:30am. Maybe they run Everest even though the park isn't open? We saw that happen during MW 2023 with the tea cups for the first time since I've been doing runDisney. Assuming they don't though, for someone to ride Everest between 7:30-9:45am assuming a gun start of 2am, you'd have to do the following paces:



So in MW 2023, about 85% of the field could have ridden Everest by the time they were estimated to arrive (about 7% were too soon and 7% were too close to the balloon ladies). In the 2am start with 4am balloons, I'd say a pretty high proportion of runners are going to hit Everest too soon with a 7:30am ride operation time unless they slow down dramatically (or course changes). And maybe they will. But if they slow down more and do more characters and such, that's still going to cause really long lines for those that start closer to the balloon ladies. At some point they'll be a breaking point for the runners in the earlier corrals where they're not going to want to stop any more. The data I've collected previously showed the average runner had about 30-60 min more time on course than they did in a normal race. With a slower pace requirement, would the average runner spend more time on course?

EPCOT opening at 9:30am is probably going to be an issue for a larger proportion of the runners now too. Even if you started at 4am, you'd have to minimally run a 5:30 marathon to hit EPCOT late enough to get alcohol and pretzels.

The 600-700 runners that DNF in the marathon with a 7hr cutoff are more likely to finish though.

The question then becomes, is the tradeoff worth it?

We've also added 3 hours (5am down to 2am) to the cost of staffing. Right now we're at 8 hrs from start to finish (of course there's definitely time pre-race as well). But an additional 3 hrs is an increase of 38% to the cost of staff during the time the race occurs. runDisney isn't likely to eat that cost. So would the experience above plus an increase of 38% to race registration (and no, there are plenty of other things so it's likely to be less than 38% increase) meet expectations. Dopey is $600(?) now, so would $830 be an ok new price?

I could see 4am instead of 5am with the 6am balloon lady release staying the same. That might be a better middle ground.

AND extend the POT to 2:45, and if you don't submit a POT you get put in a "later" corral for 10mi and longer races. Which might help take care of some of the "race etiquette" issues since you would theoretically have fewer first-timers.

I'm all for this. I've even advocated for POT out to 3:00 or 3:15 equivalent.

Quit making us run on narrow sidewalks to a backstage area at mile 3 when we could just run through the main entrance of Epcot.

I'm for it. Which way would we head when we exit? Are we headed right and towards the finish (so we'll need to rework the finish line logistics), or left and headed towards MK. Although heading left and we run into the current course heading into EPCOT.

Maybe we should reverse the start line and instead of heading North, we head South. Aim us towards EPCOT right out the gate and maybe do a different loop inside EPCOT and then exit EPCOT where the MW 2023 course entered? Although that would put us on the same narrow path from Mile 3, and we'd get to EPCOT sooner so it would be just as busy as the 5k usually is in there.

 

[flav]

I've even advocated for POT out to 3:00 or 3:15 equivalent.

Agreed. And why not a POT requirement for shorter distances too? Since we solved most problems by moving the start, the balloon ladies and the width of the course

 

[DopeyBadger]

Agreed. And why not a POT requirement for shorter distances too? Since we solved most problems by moving the start, the balloon ladies and the width of the course

I could get on board. Really boxes out first time 5k and 10k runners though. But given registration is 9 months in advance, it does give ample time to run a local race for POT.

I’d even go as far as saying all POT are accepted. No POT is in last corral. If caught with a misleading POT submission, then you risk a permanent ban. We’ve seen in past data that many are willing to be misleading about the “estimated finish”, but the data suggests far fewer are willing to submit a misleading POT submission.

 

[azrivest]

It's awesome that your analysis is based on riding a ride. Nowhere else but runDisney, and that's what I love about rD weekends

 

[DopeyBadger]

It’s one of the things that makes runDisney runDisney. Otherwise it could end up as just another marathon that happens to be at Disney.

 

[softballpooh]

So would the experience above plus an increase of 38% to race registration (and no, there are plenty of other things so it's likely to be less than 38% increase) meet expectations. Dopey is $600(?) now, so would $830 be an ok new price?

In theory, isn’t this what those of us who purchased Club runDisney did? Increased the cost for a different experience? The cost of my membership was the equivalent of my travel, accommodations, and race entry to run a favorable course for a POT to submit to get placed in a higher corral. Maybe it’s Disney math but it made more sense to me to pay for the membership to get a spot in the race, an upgraded corral, and additional perks to the membership (Expo entry and cookies ).

I should be in corral C based on my time, dropped back to D to be with my sister for the first two races of MW, and was placed in B with my CrD membership where I did the half and full. My race experiences were completely different between D and B. I had time for characters, snacks, rides, and generally speaking, spent portions of the course run/walking without anyone near me.

This is my first year of CrD and I mainly did it for registration access purposes. The corral placement though was an unexpected surprise that definitely changed my experience. Of course people are quite vocal about CrD “buying their way to the front” so there’s that perspective as well.

 

[DopeyBadger]

In theory, isn’t this what those of us who purchased Club runDisney did? Increased the cost for a different experience? The cost of my membership was the equivalent of my travel, accommodations, and race entry to run a favorable course for a POT to submit to get placed in a higher corral. Maybe it’s Disney math but it made more sense to me to pay for the membership to get a spot in the race, an upgraded corral, and additional perks to the membership (Expo entry and cookies ).

I should be in corral C based on my time, dropped back to D to be with my sister for the first two races of MW, and was placed in B with my CrD membership where I did the half and full. My race experiences were completely different between D and B. I had time for characters, snacks, rides, and generally speaking, spent portions of the course run/walking without anyone near me.

This is my first year of CrD and I mainly did it for registration access purposes. The corral placement though was an unexpected surprise that definitely changed my experience. Of course people are quite vocal about CrD “buying their way to the front” so there’s that perspective as well.

Yes, somewhat. I think there are some differences and some similarities to CrD. It’s not for me, but it definitely can cut a lot of stress out. Less registration stress, less merch stress, and less corral placement stress.

The difference between Corral B and Corral D can be big. As much as 30 or more minutes in start time and as much as almost 50% of the field (depending on where you start). But corral D is the second non-POT choice for MW 2023. The difference between the back of corral B and front of corral C is much smaller. About 2 min in time and if you’re at the front less than 1% or so of the field different. Although getting the front of C is likely more stressful than back of B. But front of C gains you about 35-48 min on balloon ladies depending on the release rate.

I am curious though. How many of the DNFs start at the back in the last corral and aren’t able to maintain a 16 mm and how many are in a higher corral and can’t maintain a 17-18 mm? I don’t have that answer.

 

[azrivest]

I'm all for this. I've even advocated for POT out to 3:00 or 3:15 equivalent.

It's when you think about it. I finished 103 of my AG last Princess race (out of about 1600 runners), and my time isn't even good enough for the POT. I know not everyone races the races at Disney but still.

Yeah, a less strict POT might also relax it for some in the corrals.

 

[DopeyBadger]

It's when you think about it. I finished 103 of my AG last Princess race (out of about 1600 runners), and my time isn't even good enough for the POT. I know not everyone races the races at Disney but still.

They've used several different cutoffs since I've been around (2014). Based on my notes, they used:

2014-2017 - 5 hour marathon (or equivalent)
2017-2020 - 5:30 hr marathon (or equivalent)
2021-2022 - 4 hour marathon (or equivalent)
2022-2023 - 4:30 hour marathon

ETA (3/10/2020): After contacting runDisney, I have received confirmation that the 2:30 HM POT cutoff is the new standard moving forward starting with Wine and Dine 2020. They provided me with the conversions necessary for each of the submittable distances as seen in the new updated chart at the beginning.

ETA (4/2/2020): runDisney has updated their website to show the new POT cutoff for the marathon distance is 5 hours. A new updated chart as been added and will be updated with official cutoffs when that information is available.

ETA (6/30/2021): With the announcement of the 2021/2022 runDisney calendar came a new HM POT cutoff for Wine and Dine 2021 at 2:00 hrs. There is nothing listed for the Marathon at this time. I've included a new theoretical POT cutoff sheet above until we learn more.

ETA (7/19/2021): Confirmed 2021 Marathon Weekend cutoff of 4 hours or less per runDisney's website.

ETA (4/9/2022): Confirmed cutoffs for HM events moved to 2:15 POT equivalent and for M/Goofy/Dopey to 4:30 POT equivalent.

About 10-12% of the field have a POT under 4 hours, about 31% of the field has a POT under 5:30 hours. So if you set the cutoff at 5.5 hrs, then about 45% of the field has a POT. For the non-POT selections, about 30% of the field selects the fastest non-POT. So if you set it at 5:30-6:00, then 30% of the field selects that. The remaining 25-30% of the field is heavily weighted towards the last corral (6:30-7:00) then the other choice (6:30-7:00) with a split of 7% vs 22%. All my data from the last ten-ish years shows that the population that makes up a runDisney race is pretty similar year to year.

Yeah, a less strict POT might also relax it for some in the corrals.

Ultimately, the goal is to get 15,000 runners (or more or less) across the start line in 45-60 min. So the rate of release is the same whether there is a POT cutoff or not. The 10,000th runner crosses the line (or better yet the 66 percentile runner) at the same time regardless. What having the POT cutoff does do is reward those who do have it with a proper seeding. The issue they ran into when they had a set number of runners per corral (like 2000) was that so many people chose the exact same estimate time (back then you manually entered 5:30:00 vs 5:30:01 instead of the drop down choice) that it created multiple corrals with 5:30:00 because people figured out the system. Then "Susan" and "Joey" weren't in the same assigned 5:30:00 corral and emailed/complained to runDisney because they had more than 2000 people submit the same exact time. They mostly fixed that with doing away with set number of runners per corral and instead do larger corrals with mini-waves. This combines all those 5:30:00 runners into one corral, but then splits them up within the corral by staggering the release rate (mini wave).

So what increasing the POT cap would do, is it would create a less stressful environment for the POT submitters. Then the other 55% (or a lower number if the cap were moved to say 6:00 or 6:30) would be still starting at the 45% mark (so in a 60 min release they would release at 27 min past gun time). So the amount of people around you would remain similar if you're the 10,000th runner. But what it can change is that someone with a potential POT of 5:29 wouldn't be standing next to someone who doesn't have a POT. So instead of being the 10,000th runner, now the 5:29 runner has been moved up to the 6750th runner (based on the % of runners in a 15,000 field that would have a sub-5:29 POT). Their experience will feel different from that standpoint. A different runner will become the 10,000th runner and their experience will remain the same as any other 10,000th runner.

The biggest issue from runDisney's standpoint on changing the cap to 6:00 or 6:30 is whether they should verify each POT. Back before they moved it down to 4 hours, the belief was that they couldn't possibly be verifying them all. It was cumbersome. Chicago marathon, sure. But runDisney with multiple weekends and multiple races per weekend with POT submissions makes the number staggering in comparison. So the conventional wisdom is that maybe they were doing some spot checking. After moving to 4 hours, it became much clearer based on anecdotal evidence that they were verifying times. So if they move the cap to 6:00 or 6:30, does runDisney verify all those POTs. From their standpoint, is it worth it? It's worth it to the end user (us the runner), but what does runDisney gain from all that extra work. Their races mostly sell out at the price they set as is stands now. What's the extra effort gain them? So in my view, you go back to verifying by spot check. But if it were me, and I found someone outright lying on their submission (hence not a mistake) I'd ban them for a year or more. Don't waste my time with a knowingly false submission. But again, if I look at the numbers from the last ten years, the data suggests to me that people are willing to put a "fake" estimate, but they're not willing to put a fake POT. There's always a bulge of runners at the first non-POT no matter where they've set it.

 

[WillRunForPizza]

I'm all for a more inclusive POT range. Checking all those results would be time-consuming, but it's the kind of thing that should be easy and pretty cheap to outsource. So why not allow more people to be placed based on their proven abilities?

 

[azrivest]

Ultimately, the goal is to get 15,000 runners (or more or less) across the start line in 45-60 min. So the rate of release is the same whether there is a POT cutoff or not. The 10,000th runner crosses the line (or better yet the 66 percentile runner) at the same time regardless.

Very true. I forgot about that.

 

[Baloo in MI]

This is very interesting. I have to admit I have always looked at the POT from a selfish standpoint of do I meet the criteria and where will it place me. I was not at all thinking about how the POT structures the runners as a whole. Given this, I think it both benefits the individual runner and the race as a whole to have a more inclusive POT; a 2:45-3:00 half POT or 5:45 marathon POT. If more people can qualify for a time then fewer people are likely placing themselves in the first non-POT corral or at least that bulge of people is a little further back and allowing for POT folks to head out a little sooner? Is this a selfish perspective?

 

[DopeyBadger]

allowing for POT folks to head out a little sooner?

Yes.

at least that bulge of people is a little further back

Yes and no. Others move ahead but percentage wise the number of people who had a pot between 5:00-5:30 has been small. So those with that POT do move up and have a less stressful pre-race, but the bulge moves back by only 2-4 min in the grand scheme. RunDisney likely looks at the same data I do in that the average runner spends an extra 30-60 min on course. So does a 2 min gain really matter? I would argue it does have benefits, but stopping for one character would negate that 2 min buffer from those in the non-pot who don’t stop. But from their POV maybe it doesn’t matter enough considering the trade off of verifying more POTs. Like it or not, I think that’s why they made the dramatic move to a sub-4 pot. I said that would be a bad choice because a massive amount of people would be choosing that first non. It’s what happened and then they opened up the % of eligible pot runner from about 10% to 20%. But I’m on the opposite side and say it should be any pot vs no pot at all. No cutoffs for pot submission. No pot, then last corral. I’d be curious to see how much of that 55% without a sub 5:30 don’t have anything submittable at all. Then spot check pots to alleviate checking them all. I think the percent that lie there is small.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I think there’s probably a way using random sampling probability that they could determine how many fake POTs are being submitted as well. Say 15,000 pot submissions. Random sample of 1000 submissions. And then check 3-5 sets of ten separate random samples of that 1000 for fake pots. I won’t calculate the probability but based on that design you could get a reasonable estimate of how many fake ones are in the total pool of 15,000. Let’s say it ends up being 100 fake ones. That’s 0.6% of the field. So the mis-seeding of those 100 runners has a total effect of 30 seconds. I would then propose not to check any other pots because the fake ones make up a very small effect. Counter that with the probability determines there is probably 1000 fake ones. Well now we’re at 6% of the field and the effect is 4 minutes. Is that enough of an effect to warrant checking any more and placing them at the back? Maybe, but that’s still pretty small.

 

[azrivest]

Back to Princess!

Training is still going well. I've had a head cold since Wednesday night, but still managed to do all my runs. I feel crummy during the day, and really great when I'm out running. Prolly the cold air helps my sore throat. I'm hitting my paces and not feeling as tired as usual when I'm nearing peak training weeks. All good things.

Winter has been fairly mild in Quebec this year and we haven't had super cold temperatures. In return, this means cloudy and often snowy conditions. As striker1064 wrote a few months ago (you're really knowledgeable with meteorology!), the clouds keep the warmer temperatures locked into the atmosphere. The daily snowfall is going to make it an additional challenge going into the final 4 weeks to get cleared roads for my quality workout each week. So far I've been lucky!

Weekly Summary:

• Running Distance = 40.67k/25.28 miles
• Running Time = 4:41

Monday

• Planned: 30-45 minute Easy Run
  • Completed: 44:59
• Strength: Strength in Stride Phase 2 - Strength Program A

Tuesday

• Planned: Off or Easy Run for 30-40 minutes
  • Completed: 36:40
  • Another very early run before work.
• Strength: Skipped my yoga class, because of above.

Wednesday

• Planned: 15-25 minute Warm-Up + Tempo Run: 15-25 minutes + 15-25 minute Cool-down
  • Completed: 1:06:11
  • I was super nervous to get good conditions for this run. Mother Nature cooperated with me this week. The city always leaves a kind of 1-inch of lightly packed snow on the streets, which make it impossible to have any traction. I feel I'm running in quicksand. When I'm out for an easy run, it doesn't really matter. But for the tempo run, I was really hoping for some cleared asphalt to be able to hit the prescribed pace. And on Wednesday, temps went over freezing for like 5 hours, which helped to melt most of the snow on the pavement right before my run. Score! Anne 1, Tempo Run 0.
  • Plan said to aim for 5:59-6:11min/km in the tempo stage. Average pace was 5:58min/km. Anne 2, Tempo Run 0.
  • This run was what I needed for my mental game. So many times I wanted to quit but I managed to hold the pace for the full 25 minutes. Hoping this will translate to my race. I always feel I stop racing too quickly because my brain tells me I'm tired, when I probably still have gas left in the tank. Anne 3, Tempo Run 0.
  • Because of the iffy conditions, I used my old Brooks Ravenna shoes, which did not help at all (These are really crummy speed shoes). So even better. Anne 4, Tempo Run 0. I win
• Strength: Fit Fab Princess

Thursday

• Off
• Strength: 30 minutes of runners' yoga
  • Lots of pigeon pose and happy baby == happy runner

Friday

• Planned: 30-45 minute Easy Run
  • Completed: 43:00
  • Repeat of last week. Did this run on my treadmill because of snowfall.
  • No wonder I'm always exhausted when I use my treadmill. DH measured my tread speed while I was running and it looks to be about 25 sec/km faster than the indicated pace, so almost 40 sec faster per mile.
  • Finally managed to finish the Obi-Wan Kenobi series. I really don't use my treadmill often
• Strength: Fit Fab Princess

Saturday

• Planned: 75-90 minute Long, Steady Run with the last 10-20 minutes at a faster pace
  • Completed: 1:30:00
  • Even being a bit sick, I was able to do the 90 minutes without feeling too tired. Didn't try to push it with a fast finish tho.

Sunday

• Total rest day.

Only 4 weeks to go of training!

Next week is the longest run of my plan with a 90-105 minute Long, Steady Run. I also have my first Goal Pace run: 2 miles @ GP w/ 5 min RI, 4 x 1 mile @ GP w/ 3-4 min RI. Crossing my fingers for more lucky winter weather, but they're forecasting another 4-6 inches on Wednesday. Wish I had naomeri's outdoor covered track!

 

[GollyGadget]

What a solid week of training! I’m very impressed by your consistent strength training. That’s always the first lever I pull when life gets in the way.

 

[azrivest]

What a solid week of training! I’m very impressed by your consistent strength training. That’s always the first lever I pull when life gets in the way.

Thanks. I think it's giving me the boost I needed fitness wise. It's been a long time since I felt as confident and healthy during a training cycle

 

[striker1064]

(you're really knowledgeable with meteorology!)

I have a degree, so that helps!

Man I would love to run in your weather. 4-6 inches is super fun! But I know it would get old.