I mean at this point, why is anyone buying direct?

[Jack Kerouac]

I think the direct versus resale debate has more to do with proximity to the parks / number of visits per year than it does affordability. Sure, resale saves money, while direct (potentially) offers the ability to stay at the new resorts and the blue card discounts. We live in IL, so the reality is WDW is a once a year trip. The current perks would take decades to recoup the upfront cost. The additional 50 points that we gained by going resale are more valuable to us because they afford us the luxury of staying in a nicer room each visit. If we lived closer and multiple visits each year was a reality, we would likely think differently about DVC direct versus resale.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I mean, it was difficult to make the math work when blue card benefits included an actual, significant, annual pass discount, and when the delta between resale and direct was smaller.

 

[Brian Noble]

I'd like to pass it down to one or more of my kids to enjoy.

I wouldn't put too much emphasis on this, unless your kids have already established themselves "out of the nest" and have shown a willingness (and ability) to visit WDW regularly.

My kids are not quite at that point yet in their own lives. The younger one is probably not going to return to Disney until he has kids of his own--and even that is a definite maybe. The older one would keep going if she could, but is on a path in which affording annual or even semi-annual trips may or may not be in the cards depending on what she prioritizes. I think either would view a DVC inheritance as more of a burden than a benefit if it happened today.

If I had to bet, I'd bet they'd both rather have the cash.

 

[hglenn]

I wouldn't put too much emphasis on this, unless your kids have already established themselves "out of the nest" and have shown a willingness (and ability) to visit WDW regularly.

My kids are not quite at that point yet in their own lives. The younger one is probably not going to return to Disney until he has kids of his own--and even that is a definite maybe. The older one would keep going if she could, but is on a path in which affording annual or even semi-annual trips may or may not be in the cards depending on what she prioritizes. I think either would view a DVC inheritance as more of a burden than a benefit if it happened today.

If I had to bet, I'd bet they'd both rather have the cash.

Sounds exactly like my 2. I've also learned the hard way that what appears to be a blessing by the person doing the passing-down can quickly become an unwanted burden on the recipient... It can be tricky...

 

[sleepymouse]

Mahalo nui loa!

I mean, if the pools are supposed to be heated and aren't, then I guess that's a thing. I just can't get my head around anyone needing a heated pool in Hawaii, much less over in Ko Olina, where it can get hotter than the face of the sun.

We stayed at the Aulani in April years ago. Trust me, those pools were cold. The breezes can be a bit chilly, and it was almost too cold for me to swim. If people were complaining about it, I understand.

 

[5kidsmommy]

I wouldn't put too much emphasis on this, unless your kids have already established themselves "out of the nest" and have shown a willingness (and ability) to visit WDW regularly.

My kids are not quite at that point yet in their own lives. The younger one is probably not going to return to Disney until he has kids of his own--and even that is a definite maybe. The older one would keep going if she could, but is on a path in which affording annual or even semi-annual trips may or may not be in the cards depending on what she prioritizes. I think either would view a DVC inheritance as more of a burden than a benefit if it happened today.

If I had to bet, I'd bet they'd both rather have the cash.

My oldest son is established and has said if we do DVC he would be willing to take it over if we pass or are done. All my kids love Disney, they don't go as often as us now but they all like to go once every other year. They are all in their 20s now.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

My oldest son is established and has said if we do DVC he would be willing to take it over if we pass or are done. All my kids love Disney, they don't go as often as us now but they all like to go once every other year. They are all in their 20s now.

where do you stay when you rent?
And then as @Jack Kerouac said, how close do you live to Disney/how often will you go? That determines if you should go resale. The direct benefits are so minuscule. If you look at any loyalty type club, the trajectory is downward. I cannot think of one company that is offering more value to customers than they were previously. It sounds like the motivation for most people to go direct is really more FOMO than any actual value.

 

[Craho]

And that will be the real challenge for the rental market. At that point, you will have owners trying to rent points that have zero resale value, while other owners will be trying to rent points that are retaining their full resale value. If I'm looking to rent points in 2030, am I going to even look twice at renting RR or VDH points when I know that someone sitting on BRV points will be renting them out for significantly less?

Does the overall rental market drop out because many resorts will have low-value points available? Someone renting out full-value points can only go so low, but there will be downward pressure from the cheap/zero value points.

The rental prices would not fluctuate based on the resort expiration..right? Why would the 2042 rentals be significantly less in 10 years? Less resale contracts and more rentals so more rental supply driving the costs down?

 

[5kidsmommy]

where do you stay when you rent?
And then as @Jack Kerouac said, how close do you live to Disney/how often will you go? That determines if you should go resale. The direct benefits are so minuscule. If you look at any loyalty type club, the trajectory is downward. I cannot think of one company that is offering more value to customers than they were previously. It sounds like the motivation for most people to go direct is really more FOMO than any actual value.

Once again my husband and I had the discussion last night. He was looking at resale pricing, he's decided resale is the way to go. I love Poly but we want or two bedrooms for almost every trip, so we are most likely going with SSR. We like the resort. While we enjoy the Epcot area we also want the relaxtion of a quiet resort area and if he's making this purchase he wants more than 19 years. He enjoys golfing. I enjoy walking around DS and eating there. We do enjoy the parks but always have a car. I would love BLT but even the resale prices are still higher and he just doesn't know. I like BLT for the extra bathroom which is only really needed when the whole family or part of the family comes. We are looking at 150-175 points. We rarely vacation on weekends, and never during holidays, given his business it's just not feasible for us.

 

[Sandisw]

The rental prices would not fluctuate based on the resort expiration..right? Why would the 2042 rentals be significantly less in 10 years? Less resale contracts and more rentals so more rental supply driving the costs down?

They could...if you have a flood of 2042 owners who decide to rent vs sell in those last few years, some may decide to rent for less simply because there is so much competition out there for stays at those resorts.

 

[theplanets14]

Having theme parks and oceans really reduces this risk. HHI is the only one that this could happen, but the fan base is so loyal they will be chaining themselves to the doorknobs in 2042

There are timeshares in the Ozarks / Poconos / Smokey mountains that have people locked into 1k a year in MF when they sit empty at $600 / week deals. That is the classic timeshare nightmare.

Ha! A bit off topic but every year for our annual trip to the smokies we almost attend a timeshare presentation for the free stuff...but never go because we don't want to waste our young sons time. Also we would never buy.

THIS. ^^^

I have a small points* contract that I intend to use every year for a three weeknight/"long weekend" stay. That means the only AP that would make sense for me is Pixie Dust. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that was ever an option?
So my choices were to buy 150pts at $217/pt for $35k... OR buy a small resale contract at $3,500 all in?

Sorry not sorry, I'm cool missing out on the free pop and $10 cake at the lounges. My apologies to Riviera, lol.

SOLD.


*pending ROFR

Where did you buy?

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Once again my husband and I had the discussion last night. He was looking at resale pricing, he's decided resale is the way to go. I love Poly but we want or two bedrooms for almost every trip, so we are most likely going with SSR. We like the resort. While we enjoy the Epcot area we also want the relaxtion of a quiet resort area and if he's making this purchase he wants more than 19 years. He enjoys golfing. I enjoy walking around DS and eating there. We do enjoy the parks but always have a car. I would love BLT but even the resale prices are still higher and he just doesn't know. I like BLT for the extra bathroom which is only really needed when the whole family or part of the family comes. We are looking at 150-175 points. We rarely vacation on weekends, and never during holidays, given his business it's just not feasible for us.

You can get a great price on an SSR resale right now. We have one there and have used it almost everywhere (including BLT). You probably already know but Kidani also has the extra bathroom and is easier to get than BLT.

 

[Ruttangel]

There’s a lot of expectation v reality in DVC.
People buy in expecting

• AP discounts to continue forever
• CCV studios /AKV Value to be available at 11 months
• refurb schedules to be done on time
• Dues increases to be similar across all resorts
• Resale prices to keep going up
• high demand for rentals
• being able to sell quickly
• new attractions at parks to keep them fresh
• high quality food, transportation and amenities at resorts
• clean well equipped rooms

Personally, we are still a park centred family and we just need a base near the action. It’s a real bonus that I can go to VGF/PVB as well as my home resorts of AKV/BWV/OKW.
As a white card pleb the only thing left for them to take from me would be the ability to go to other resorts. That wouldn’t bother me in the slightest though. Living in UK our park tickets are about $600 for 14 days park hopping including memory maker and water parks so AP not relevant to me, but…..

I think the removal of AP discounts is very poor by Disney and I thought new management would have sorted AP‘s out by now. They need to do something grand to make direct a feeling of joining an exclusive club again.

Its Disneys 100th anniversary, bring in some temp incentives for a 100pt buy in, let’s get that initial buy in under $20k, make it attainable, $30k seems too steep.

 

[DisNerd1984]

We purchased two more direct contracts in December, 150 each at Grand Floridian because the price was $181 pp. We have 3 direct contracts and 4 resale.

 

[RoseGold]

Its Disneys 100th anniversary, bring in some temp incentives for a 100pt buy in, let’s get that initial buy in under $20k, make it attainable, $30k seems too steep.

I can see that happening for DLT. 150 is a lot of points for DL. Maybe as a temporary thing at release or something. But 100 points isn't enough for WDW with new charts. I think 150 is here to stay for WDW.

 

[Stank]

The issue with Direct is the immediate unrealized depreciation. The moment that contract closes it becomes re-rated at the fair market value of Resale. The longer your holding period, the less relevant this is. In the meantime, buying Direct carries a much higher financial risk in the event you need an “out,” or selling your timeshare.

Personally, I think Disney is entering a secular decline, and it’s reflected in the product. Super hero movies and Star Wars have been exhausted. The social media “influencing” bubble will burst. I think society as a whole is going to go back to basics in the coming years. Excessive debt loads will need to be worked off. Every day I look at financial news and see another major corporation laying off 7-12% of their workforce.

Which brings me back to DVC Resale. DVC is the epitome of unnecessary luxury discretionary spending. We haven’t even had the unemployment rate rise, yet DVC prices are in a free fall. As of February 2, 2023, there are over 2,700 resale contract listings for DVC; normally you’d see 600-800. The DVC Show had a video several months back where it was a great time to buy as listings were up and it was going to turn around. Today, there’s even MORE inventory and prices continue to tumble. BLT is going for $144pp. GCV has dropped $80 from peak. And prices will fall much further.

The promise of DVC was the security of ROFR. The issue is Disney can only ROFR if there’s a buyer. What we have is a glut of sellers and no buyers. List prices are falling as contracts are sitting for months until they find a bid. But ROFR is only a good backstop if there’s a balanced supply/demand. I don’t think people fathomed a situation where sellers are selling and buyers ain’t buying. So ROFR cannot stop a freefall when transactions aren’t occurring but sales inventory is piling up.

I also think Disney is seeing what many other major companies are seeing. The honey pot of cheap money is gone. Debt is expensive. Facebook is in a hiring freeze and has slashed tens of billions in Metaverse spending. Disney has multiple active DVC resorts selling, with more in the pipeline. Their Direct inventory is bursting at the seams—the last thing they’re going to want to do is be aggressive with ROFR and ADDING to their inventory. I think they’ll be far more judicious. Instead of buying any and all contracts of Resort XYZ at $150, they’ll let the market ebb and flow. They’ll pounce and ROFR at $160 and let $145 walk. It'll be more psychological to keep the secondary market supported vs. reality. When ROFR hits $160, brokers can scare buyers away from lowballing. “Uh oh, Disney just bought 5 back at $160, I wouldn’t recommend a $155 offer!” But the reality is it’s a bluff. Disney is cutting back on spending just as every other company is. ROFR is going to be a lot more of a mind game in a weak economy than it is going to be that safety net people long thought of. I have no doubt we’re to see Resale prices at levels once unthinkable. Just as BLT going for $200 was crazy, yet happened, and GCV went for $300, we’re going to see BLT fall below $100 and GCV below $200.

So why Direct over Resale? In this environment, I wouldn’t buy any for a while. Disney will discount Direct sharply in the next 12-24 months. Resale will be an absolute bargain. Not only is the active resale inventory at 4-5x normal levels, but every contract held is potential inventory. I remember just a few months ago people scoffed at a housing crash because there’s no inventory. Guys, walk around your neighborhood. Every house is inventory—they just don’t have a sign in the yard yet. And look—housing inventory showed up out of nowhere overnight. Plenty of homes available, no buyer frenzies, and prices are plunging. So if you think 2,700 resale contact listings is the peak, just wait until later this year.

If Direct is $200 and Resale is $120, if you have to sell at $100, it’s a lot further fall from $200 vs $120. From a financial risk standpoint, Resale is superior. People are talking about 40-50 years out, and I get it, but if you’re in the position of “I can’t afford 300 points, but if I can buy 150 now and add 150 in a few years…” then I would say absolutely not to Direct. You’re already financially stretched—and you’re looking at 20 years out—I think many people will be considered what their employment picture looks like for either them or
Someone they know in the next 20 weeks…because this is going to be a very strained economy for a very good while.

 

[Sandisw]

The issue with Direct is the immediate unrealized depreciation. The moment that contract closes it becomes re-rated at the fair market value of Resale. The longer your holding period, the less relevant this is. In the meantime, buying Direct carries a much higher financial risk in the event you need an “out,” or selling your timeshare.

Personally, I think Disney is entering a secular decline, and it’s reflected in the product. Super hero movies and Star Wars have been exhausted. The social media “influencing” bubble will burst. I think society as a whole is going to go back to basics in the coming years. Excessive debt loads will need to be worked off. Every day I look at financial news and see another major corporation laying off 7-12% of their workforce.

Which brings me back to DVC Resale. DVC is the epitome of unnecessary luxury discretionary spending. We haven’t even had the unemployment rate rise, yet DVC prices are in a free fall. As of February 2, 2023, there are over 2,700 resale contract listings for DVC; normally you’d see 600-800. The DVC Show had a video several months back where it was a great time to buy as listings were up and it was going to turn around. Today, there’s even MORE inventory and prices continue to tumble. BLT is going for $144pp. GCV has dropped $80 from peak. And prices will fall much further.

The promise of DVC was the security of ROFR. The issue is Disney can only ROFR if there’s a buyer. What we have is a glut of sellers and no buyers. List prices are falling as contracts are sitting for months until they find a bid. But ROFR is only a good backstop if there’s a balanced supply/demand. I don’t think people fathomed a situation where sellers are selling and buyers ain’t buying. So ROFR cannot stop a freefall when transactions aren’t occurring but sales inventory is piling up.

I also think Disney is seeing what many other major companies are seeing. The honey pot of cheap money is gone. Debt is expensive. Facebook is in a hiring freeze and has slashed tens of billions in Metaverse spending. Disney has multiple active DVC resorts selling, with more in the pipeline. Their Direct inventory is bursting at the seams—the last thing they’re going to want to do is be aggressive with ROFR and ADDING to their inventory. I think they’ll be far more judicious. Instead of buying any and all contracts of Resort XYZ at $150, they’ll let the market ebb and flow. They’ll pounce and ROFR at $160 and let $145 walk. It'll be more psychological to keep the secondary market supported vs. reality. When ROFR hits $160, brokers can scare buyers away from lowballing. “Uh oh, Disney just bought 5 back at $160, I wouldn’t recommend a $155 offer!” But the reality is it’s a bluff. Disney is cutting back on spending just as every other company is. ROFR is going to be a lot more of a mind game in a weak economy than it is going to be that safety net people long thought of. I have no doubt we’re to see Resale prices at levels once unthinkable. Just as BLT going for $200 was crazy, yet happened, and GCV went for $300, we’re going to see BLT fall below $100 and GCV below $200.

So why Direct over Resale? In this environment, I wouldn’t buy any for a while. Disney will discount Direct sharply in the next 12-24 months. Resale will be an absolute bargain. Not only is the active resale inventory at 4-5x normal levels, but every contract held is potential inventory. I remember just a few months ago people scoffed at a housing crash because there’s no inventory. Guys, walk around your neighborhood. Every house is inventory—they just don’t have a sign in the yard yet. And look—housing inventory showed up out of nowhere overnight. Plenty of homes available, no buyer frenzies, and prices are plunging. So if you think 2,700 resale contact listings is the peak, just wait until later this year.

If Direct is $200 and Resale is $120, if you have to sell at $100, it’s a lot further fall from $200 vs $120. From a financial risk standpoint, Resale is superior. People are talking about 40-50 years out, and I get it, but if you’re in the position of “I can’t afford 300 points, but if I can buy 150 now and add 150 in a few years…” then I would say absolutely not to Direct. You’re already financially stretched—and you’re looking at 20 years out—I think many people will be considered what their employment picture looks like for either them or
Someone they know in the next 20 weeks…because this is going to be a very strained economy for a very good while.

There are plenty of us who bought and did not use resale value as part of the decision. It was still worth it even if that value fell.

For us, direct has been worth it because we want what it has to offer that resale can not. It’s not right for everyone, but we were fine with the potential loss we could suffer if an emergency happened and we had to sell

If that ever happens, it means we have more important things going on.

Now, I do think that things will consider to fall as long as DVD continues to stop the ROFR process. It hasn’t taken long.

I don’t know if we will see BLT go that low, but I do see us getting down to the $120 mark because if we start seeing that, I think buyers will buy hem quicker to stop the fall.

We shall see!

 

[DonMacGregor]

517,000 new jobs, and unemployment at its lowest level since 1969...

 

[hglenn]

517,000 new jobs, and unemployment at its lowest level since 1969...

Sadly, the published unemployment rate is not the whole story... and 500k jobs does not take quality into consideration.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Sadly, the published unemployment rate is not the whole story... and 500k jobs does not take quality into consideration.

No, it doesn't, but in a truly depressed economy, even poor quality jobs tend to fall off as well, Food service and other historically low wage / low skill set jobs tend to suffer as disposable income declines and wallets tighten.