I mean at this point, why is anyone buying direct?

[tjkraz]

Uh, wut. 800 contracts speak for themselves. People are selling. Even with prices going down right now, people are selling. Reaching comments like this are like defending the "refreshing" broken Aulani pool heaters.

I'm not saying people aren't selling. But there is a...not insignificant number of contracts on the resale marketplace which are flips. Assuming every resale listing is average Joe who is pissed-off at Disney/DVC would be incorrect.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

There are many reasons why people sell their contracts, many of which are unknowable. I‘m sure many are tired of Disney. But many could also be selling for other personal reasons, just like not all pool heaters aren’t broken at Aulani. The grotto and the quiet pools are always heated, just not the main pool and the lazy river.

 

[BamaGuy44]

That's what 800 listings means. I'm not sure how else you can interpret that.

Lots of reasons people would want to cash out of a timeshare besides dissatisfaction with the product. The listings increase also coincides with a historic inflation jump and market downturn. I’m no economist but maybe that’s related as well?

 

[BeachClub2014]

I occasionally check resale listings on one of the not to be named search engines, and in looking just now, there are just under 2,700 contracts listed for sale across 13 different brokers/sites. That number certainly doesn't account for the total number of contracts for sale globally, but it is probably a better number than focusing on any one site.

2,700 contracts for sale out of how many total contracts are in existence? I'm not sure it's a huge problem. I would also think that the raw number of contracts offered via resale should incrementally increase with the total number of contracts sold by DVC. Just looking at the December numbers alone, DVC sold 800 new contracts.

 

[davidhr]

Normally around these dates every year there’s a higher number of listings. Maybe this year there are more, I don’t have the numbers to back it up.

I think there are more people selling right now. And I think there’s a very small number of those selling because they’re dissatisfied with Disney. But the majority isn’t. I always have to remind myself that forums like this one are not representative of the general population. We’re a minority. Most people still love Disney as usual.

And as a very minor datapoint, one of my contracts was recently listed, and the reason was that I bought more points at other resorts and didn’t need that contract anymore. So my reason to sell was actually that I just had purchased more DVC points lol.

 

[BamaGuy44]

Normally around these dates every year there’s a higher number of listings. Maybe this year there are more, I don’t have the numbers to back it up.

I think there are more people selling right now. And I think there’s a very small number of those selling because they’re dissatisfied with Disney. But the majority isn’t. I always have to remember myself that forums like this are not representative of the general population. We’re a minority. Most people still love Disney as usual.

And as a very minor datapoint, one of my contracts was recently listed, and the reason was that I bought more points at other resorts and didn’t need that contract anymore. So my reason to sell was actually that I just had purchased more DVC points lol.

Agreed. Here on the board everything is magnified, that’s just how it is with enthusiast groups. We have 20 page arguments/discussions about things 95% of Disney visitors and DVC owners never think about.

 

[RoseGold]

2,700 contracts for sale out of how many total contracts are in existence? I'm not sure it's a huge problem. I would also think that the raw number of contracts offered via resale should incrementally increase with the total number of contracts sold by DVC. Just looking at the December numbers alone, DVC sold 800 new contracts.

I feel like we are in reverse land or something. This is way, WAY more contracts for sale than I've ever seen. When I bought VGF, there would be maybe 10 for sale at a time, and at least a couple of those would be so inflated I'm not sure they were real listings. Right now, just on the board sponsor, there are over 30. But sure, it's just 30 contracts. We can all pretend like everything is great, and everyone is really happy with DVC and the Aulani heaters. Yay! So magical. You don't need ALL the pools to be heated, right? DVC is great!

 

[AstroBlasters]

I feel like we are in reverse land or something. This is way, WAY more contracts for sale than I've ever seen. When I bought VGF, there would be maybe 10 for sale at a time, and at least a couple of those would be so inflated I'm not sure they were real listings. Right now, just on the board sponsor, there are over 30. But sure, it's just 30 contracts. We can all pretend like everything is great, and everyone is really happy with DVC and the Aulani heaters. Yay! So magical. You don't need ALL the pools to be heated, right? DVC is great!

You profile says you joined DISBoards in Jan of 2020. When did you buy into DVC?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I feel like we are in reverse land or something. This is way, WAY more contracts for sale than I've ever seen. When I bought VGF, there would be maybe 10 for sale at a time, and at least a couple of those would be so inflated I'm not sure they were real listings. Right now, just on the board sponsor, there are over 30. But sure, it's just 30 contracts. We can all pretend like everything is great, and everyone is really happy with DVC and the Aulani heaters. Yay! So magical. You don't need ALL the pools to be heated, right? DVC is great!

Sure there are lots of listings. But the sky isn’t falling and Disney is not going out of business. the parks are making more money than ever. WRT to the Aulani pools, i agree that the main pool and lazy river are a bit chilly. But it’s also 82 degrees and sunny here in January. At certain times, it’s a little refreshing and many people are still enjoying it a lot. Not everyone is disgruntled.

 

[RoseGold]

There are a TON of listings. This is a buyer's market. If you are in for the long haul on Disney, this would be an excellent time to buy. Tons of listings, and there just seem to be more and more. Crazy deals being had right now, unthinkable a year ago.

Yet, at the same time, rack rate hasn't budged. And demand to rent points seems to still be there, just glancing at Facebook. I guess some of this is that points just got too expensive, and maybe the rental income didn't seem worth it. I've thought rental points need to be higher, since resale kept climing post-covid.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I feel like we are in reverse land or something. This is way, WAY more contracts for sale than I've ever seen. When I bought VGF, there would be maybe 10 for sale at a time, and at least a couple of those would be so inflated I'm not sure they were real listings. Right now, just on the board sponsor, there are over 30. But sure, it's just 30 contracts. We can all pretend like everything is great, and everyone is really happy with DVC and the Aulani heaters. Yay! So magical. You don't need ALL the pools to be heated, right? DVC is great!

Not sure why you chose to quote my post for your tirade when all I was pointing out was that in the big scheme of things, the raw number of resale contracts doesn't seem to be a considerable issue, nor does it support the belief that there is some mass exodus away from DVC.

I am baffled by the highlighted rant, as I have no idea whether the pool heaters at Aulani are functional, nor have I commented on them.

 

[Sandisw]

Not sure why you chose to quote my post for your tirade when all I was pointing out was that in the big scheme of things, the raw number of resale contracts doesn't seem to be a considerable issue, nor does it support the belief that there is some mass exodus away from DVC.

I am baffled by the highlighted rant, as I have no idea whether the pool heaters at Aulani are functional, nor have I commented on them.

I just want to add that I agree that I. The scheme it’s a small percentage. I have sold four contracts in 2 teas because I bought other ones. Nothing to do with being disgruntled in anyway.

 

[RoseGold]

The Aulani heaters are just an example how there seems to be constant defense of Disney on these boards, even when they aren't in the right. Waiting 3 hours for MS pops to mind as well, oh and the terrible website.

Disney has been making a lot of changes and decisions. I don't think it's hard to see why DVC members could be selling right now. The APs are obvious one, which people have brought up over and over again. So, the boards go from justifying a direct purchase with a meager AP discount to no one wanted APs anyway, and all of these sellers must be bots.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I’m not defending Disney, nor am I justifying. I don’t need to. I am satisfied by my DVC purchases every time we stay at at DVC resort, which is every couple of months. My mention of the heated/unheated Aulani pools was to show that not everyone hates the colder pools. Some love it, especially under a hot Hawaii sun. I’m not ignorant of the many recent and unpopular changes that Disney has made. Nor am I nebulous about some of the degraded services and amenities. But like the market, I don’t think we can judge what happened the last 2 years as normal. We all need time to adjust and process what the pandemic did to everything. I’m more willing to give Disney the benefit of the doubt that like the market, things will turn around. But that’s just my opinion. Aloha!

 

[BeachClub2014]

The Aulani heaters are just an example how there seems to be constant defense of Disney on these boards, even when they aren't in the right. Waiting 3 hours for MS pops to mind as well, oh and the terrible website.

Disney has been making a lot of changes and decisions. I don't think it's hard to see why DVC members could be selling right now. The APs are obvious one, which people have brought up over and over again. So, the boards go from justifying a direct purchase with a meager AP discount to no one wanted APs anyway, and all of these sellers must be bots.

It sounds like DVC and Disneyworld aren't a good fit for your needs. Life is way too short to be angry over where you vacation. DVC and Disneyworld aren't perfect and have changed over the decades we've been going. Some things are better, and others we may not care for, but they still work for us.

 

[RoseGold]

It sounds like DVC and Disneyworld aren't a good fit for your needs. Life is way too short to be angry over where you vacation. DVC and Disneyworld aren't perfect and have changed over the decades we've been going. Some things are better, and others we may not care for, but they still work for us.

I have a whole lot of DVC, and I also have APs. But there are plenty of people who missed the window and aren't happy about it. And Disney has made a whole lot of controversial post-Covid decisions.

Of course those things are tied to the massive amount of contracts for sale. I'm not angry, I think I'm just stating the obvious.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I'm not saying people aren't selling. But there is a...not insignificant number of contracts on the resale marketplace which are flips. Assuming every resale listing is average Joe who is pissed-off at Disney/DVC would be incorrect.

If people bought 6 months ago, stripped, and are flipping now at current prices…. They are likely not making much if any profit. They may even be taking a loss. Stripping and flipping was always a really bad long-term investment strategy because you get caught holding a hot potato if there’s an economic downturn.

 

[RichVIII]

I follow the main board sponsor and when the market was tight, there were consistently under 400 active contracts. Now there are over a 1,000. Is that the sky is falling? No. More contracts naturally creates competition. Some of the over prices contracts are sitting. Even ones that would be gone by the end of the day are taking a little longer. I almost pulled the trigger only because I need more points.

 

[havoc315]

2,700 contracts for sale out of how many total contracts are in existence? I'm not sure it's a huge problem. I would also think that the raw number of contracts offered via resale should incrementally increase with the total number of contracts sold by DVC. Just looking at the December numbers alone, DVC sold 800 new contracts.

This --- There are more contracts in existence than 10 or 20 years ago, so of course there are more resale contracts.

Secondly, as contracts (and owners) age, there may be an increasing percentage of owners looking to re-sell. Not many people are going to re-sell 3 years after buying. (some will, but not many). On the other hand, after 20 or 30 years... Kids all grown up.. owners getting too old to travel... owners passing on, and the kids not interested in keeping the contract.

It's also important to remember that Disney can tightly control the direct supply of points for sale. Stop building new DVCs... declare fewer rooms and use them as cash rooms... So Disney can prevent the supply of direct points of getting too high. In contrast, resale is always growing in supply, not necessarily with an increase in demand. .

 

[HIRyeDVC]

This --- There are more contracts in existence than 10 or 20 years ago, so of course there are more resale contracts.

Secondly, as contracts (and owners) age, there may be an increasing percentage of owners looking to re-sell. Not many people are going to re-sell 3 years after buying. (some will, but not many). On the other hand, after 20 or 30 years... Kids all grown up.. owners getting too old to travel... owners passing on, and the kids not interested in keeping the contract.

It's also important to remember that Disney can tightly control the direct supply of points for sale. Stop building new DVCs... declare fewer rooms and use them as cash rooms... So Disney can prevent the supply of direct points of getting too high. In contrast, resale is always growing in supply, not necessarily with an increase in demand. .

I’ve heard that average DVC ownership is 7 years. I don’t know how true that is but sounds reasonable.