I mean at this point, why is anyone buying direct?

VDH will have 6-7x as many rooms as VGC. Yeah, it will be a lot easier to book at 7 months.
Sadly almost all of those are smaller rooms. It has the same or less of the larger (1BR+) size rooms. With that said my wife loves the drawings she has seen and we really want to check out the grand villa with that balcony.
 
we really want to check out the grand villa with that balcony.
you must really hate money. totally agree about all those studios though. 1 and 2 BR availability might get tight, even at 11 months depending on the season. I so wish they'd release the points chart and dues rate. Surely, they know those by now.
 
and the low resale prices right now.
I think the prices will get even lower this year. The board's sponsor has over 800 listings now, and still climbing everyday. It's crazy how many people are trying to sell right now and so few people are in the market to buy. Of course I'm just speculating.
 
Isn't most of Disney's IT outsourced somewhere internationally? I remember reading something (a few years ago) about IT layoffs & complaints about severance package payouts predicated on the employee about to be laid off training replacements.
This article from 2016 is one of many that covers this topic.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/busi...ing-indians/story-nBmqJT3nNw7o7hDSFxRCrI.html

The title summarizes it:

Disney, HCL, Cognizant sued for displacing US workers, hiring Indians
 

you must really hate money. totally agree about all those studios though. 1 and 2 BR availability might get tight, even at 11 months depending on the season. I so wish they'd release the points chart and dues rate. Surely, they know those by now.
Oh we like money but it’s just a change of priorities. I used to spend way too much money on electronics and computers each year. That is now going to the dvc funds. Plus we normally will do a 1 or 2 BR for us on most stays. The GV are for when we are hosting family and friends and want a place to hang out and we’ll achieve that by banking and borrowing and trying for lower season point charts.
 
I think the prices will get even lower this year. The board's sponsor has over 800 listings now, and still climbing everyday. It's crazy how many people are trying to sell right now and so few people are in the market to buy. Of course I'm just speculating.
Unfortunately the dues will continue to only go up and they are ~75% of the total cost of ownership (depending on your resort).
 
I think the prices will get even lower this year. The board's sponsor has over 800 listings now, and still climbing everyday. It's crazy how many people are trying to sell right now and so few people are in the market to buy. Of course I'm just speculating.
How serious are the sellers though? Most small contracts are totally non-negotiable, which is totally crazy to me in a buyer’s market. Some of them have just been sitting there for months - and some of them are small contracts not at crazy prices! A lot of the larger contracts also have ridiculous valuations. Maybe some of these people aren’t serious about selling, or they figure “i can just rent the points out”, which might be fine, though something I would personally not be interested in doing as a renter or ”landlord”.

If the economy softens further, I don’t see how the prices can continue to be propped up.
 
How serious are the sellers though? Most small contracts are totally non-negotiable, which is totally crazy to me in a buyer’s market. Some of them have just been sitting there for months - and some of them are small contracts not at crazy prices! A lot of the larger contracts also have ridiculous valuations. Maybe some of these people aren’t serious about selling, or they figure “i can just rent the points out”, which might be fine, though something I would personally not be interested in doing as a renter or ”landlord”.

If the economy softens further, I don’t see how the prices can continue to be propped up.
I see the same, well-priced contracts are going in days for 50-pointers. The ones demanding 175 for PVB who won't take offers or budge on closing or points are sitting for 4-5 months and counting. However there is one for 190 (PVB) that says sale pending .... PT Barnum was not wrong and that is probably what they are waiting for.
 
How serious are the sellers though? Most small contracts are totally non-negotiable, which is totally crazy to me in a buyer’s market. Some of them have just been sitting there for months - and some of them are small contracts not at crazy prices! A lot of the larger contracts also have ridiculous valuations. Maybe some of these people aren’t serious about selling, or they figure “i can just rent the points out”, which might be fine, though something I would personally not be interested in doing as a renter or ”landlord”.

If the economy softens further, I don’t see how the prices can continue to be propped up.
Rack rates are the first domino for everything.
 
I think the prices will get even lower this year. The board's sponsor has over 800 listings now, and still climbing everyday. It's crazy how many people are trying to sell right now and so few people are in the market to buy. Of course I'm just speculating.
I'm just hoping that many of them are the chronically complaining "DVC sucks and I'm really contemplating selling (and this time I mean it)" / "you'd better have an exit strategy" crowd finally making good on their threat/promise.
 
How serious are the sellers though? Most small contracts are totally non-negotiable, which is totally crazy to me in a buyer’s market. Some of them have just been sitting there for months - and some of them are small contracts not at crazy prices! A lot of the larger contracts also have ridiculous valuations. Maybe some of these people aren’t serious about selling, or they figure “i can just rent the points out”, which might be fine, though something I would personally not be interested in doing as a renter or ”landlord”.

If the economy softens further, I don’t see how the prices can continue to be propped up.
I see the same, well-priced contracts are going in days for 50-pointers. The ones demanding 175 for PVB who won't take offers or budge on closing or points are sitting for 4-5 months and counting. However there is one for 190 (PVB) that says sale pending .... PT Barnum was not wrong and that is probably what they are waiting for.
It only takes one person to bite. If I was a seller, I wouldn’t sell myself short. Id price it high hoping someone will pay. If not, just take it off the market and rent out the points or use it myself. Wash and repeat until the next year. I have that luxury to wait it out. Others may not. But that’s the beauty of the free market. Ultimately, prices will be dictated by those willing to buy at a certain price.
 
I'm just hoping that many of them are the chronically complaining "DVC sucks and I'm really contemplating selling (and this time I mean it)" / "you'd better have an exit strategy" crowd finally making good on their threat/promise.
Perhaps some are doing that. I mostly think these things are cyclical and currently it’s a sellers market. I think it’ll turn around in a few years.
 
I’m honestly not seeing huge across-the-board price drops on smaller 25-50 point contracts, at least not similar to the reductions on larger contracts. There is one oddball semi-stripped 30-point, 2042 OKW contract out there for $90, but after that you’re looking at at least 150 points to get down to that number. Even SSR 50-point contracts are still hovering around $130-$140 unless they are stripped. Un-stripped BRV 25-50 point contracts are actually a dollar or two higher this year than 12 months ago.
 
I’m honestly not seeing huge across-the-board price drops on smaller 25-50 point contracts, at least not similar to the reductions on larger contracts. There is one oddball semi-stripped 30-point, 2042 OKW contract out there for $90, but after that you’re looking at at least 150 points to get down to that number. Even SSR 50-point contracts are still hovering around $130-$140 unless they are stripped. Un-stripped BRV 25-50 point contracts are actually a dollar or two higher this year than 12 months ago.
I don’t think small contracts are a good indicator of the market. There will always be a decent demand for those since the overall cost is so much less. Even though I’m not in the market to buy, if I saw a 25-50 point BCV in my UY, I would stare long and hard at it. And I don’t even want to buy!
 
I don’t think small contracts are a good indicator of the market. There will always be a decent demand for those since the overall cost is so much less. Even though I’m not in the market to buy, if I saw a 25-50 point BCV in my UY, I would stare long and hard at it. And I don’t even want to buy!
Definitely wasn't suggesting they were, but there is definitely a larger relative increase in the availability of larger contracts.

Curiously, for me at least, if I was starting to feel economic pressure, I'd probably unload my smaller contracts first, keeping the two larger ones as the last to go. Sorta like ballast in a submarine or hot air balloon. Also, just as it's easier to afford a smaller contract, it's also easier to sell one (at least total cost wise).
 
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I don’t think small contracts are a good indicator of the market. There will always be a decent demand for those since the overall cost is so much less. Even though I’m not in the market to buy, if I saw a 25-50 point BCV in my UY, I would stare long and hard at it. And I don’t even want to buy!
I am not in the market either, my logical brain is saying to wait for a decision on PVB2 if it's the same, buy 50 direct or sell your resale 100 and buy 150 to wash your points. But I can be tempted if a cheap 50-point PVB contract comes up.
 
Perhaps some are doing that. I mostly think these things are cyclical and currently it’s a sellers market. I think it’ll turn around in a few years.

The big wildcard here is what the FED is going to do with the rates in the next 12 to 18 months. I'm going to take a gamble and bet interest rates go to or close to zero as soon as a bit more pain is felt and the economy really starts to hurt. I don't wish harm on anyone, but it seems like we are on a path. Rates go back to zero and the money printer goes brrr even more. Not a bad idea to get some long term assets and lock in your prices if this happens. It's a gamble for sure, but it's where I think we are headed. I think this downturn in prices is temporary and things will go back up soon given our leaders don't know any way out of this cheap money corner we are in.
 
I'm just hoping that many of them are the chronically complaining "DVC sucks and I'm really contemplating selling (and this time I mean it)" / "you'd better have an exit strategy" crowd finally making good on their threat/promise.
That's what 800 listings means. I'm not sure how else you can interpret that.
 
That's what 800 listings means. I'm not sure how else you can interpret that.
There are people / entities who have made a cottage industry out of flipping contracts for a profit. Those individuals may be unwilling or unable to lower their asking price on certain contracts, and are probably astute enough to rent points while the wait-out any bumps in price / demand.

Not every contract you see listed is a disgruntled owner who is ready to walk away. Far from it.
 
There are people / entities who have made a cottage industry out of flipping contracts for a profit. Those individuals may be unwilling or unable to lower their asking price on certain contracts, and are probably astute enough to rent points while the wait-out any bumps in price / demand.

Not every contract you see listed is a disgruntled owner who is ready to walk away. Far from it.
Uh, wut. 800 contracts speak for themselves. People are selling. Even with prices going down right now, people are selling. Reaching comments like this are like defending the "refreshing" broken Aulani pool heaters.
 



















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