I mean at this point, why is anyone buying direct?

[Royal Consort]

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...cember-2022-direct-sales-and-year-end-wrap-up

Direct sales have declined recently but is doing fine overall. Seems like Riviera resale restrictions isn’t much of a hindrance. Nor is the price point.

Agreed. After the years of doomsaying I'm amused at the discrepancy between Disboards reality and ..you know...reality reality.

 

[sethschroeder]

Again, you're completely missing my point. I don't care how you're doing your math or for how long or why. That's for you to decide.

Again I am not missing anything you simply are changing the math. The question being presented is after 10 years I am done with DVC which is the correct way to go?

You saying you are now going to continue to use the contract for another 5/10/20/30 years changes the math.

You are essentially saying your math is:
A (upfront cost) + B (annual fees for 10 years) + Undefined (some additional time) - C (money recovered upon selling DVC contract) < or > D (rental for 10 years) + Undefined (some additional time)

The issue is you need a defined timeframe to actually do the math or it errors out.

"nothing" is subjective

The original poster was stating they viewed the contract as worth $0 after 10 years. That is a incorrect statement (which I keep saying) because if you truly believed that then you would rent if you were only going to hold the DVC contract for 10 years then sell.

If you are planning on holding for 20 years then you do the math off 20 years then the equation above changes and likely comes out in favor of buying.

In the end the poster simply was stating incorrect information as the only way DVC goes to $0 for a contract is if WDW goes under which I see only occurring if Florida no longer exists.

In the end being worth nothing is not even subjective its just a wrong assessment of DVC contracts and what they will sell for after 10 years.

 

[sethschroeder]

Agreed. After the years of doomsaying I'm amused at the discrepancy between Disboards reality and ..you know...reality reality.

People fought me over and over on the resale question causing a downturn in direct sales. The pre-covid numbers showed it was surpassing CCV for speed in which it was selling.

They would point to the post-covid numbers which I kept stating that DVC management likely was happy with because of the world climate we were in along with the fact the parks were a portion of the attendance previously.

Riviera's biggest issue simply is that it came out right before a pandemic, WDW closure, and does have a large total point footprint.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Again I am not missing anything you simply are changing the math. The question being presented is after 10 years I am done with DVC which is the correct way to go?

You saying you are now going to continue to use the contract for another 5/10/20/30 years changes the math.

You are essentially saying your math is:
A (upfront cost) + B (annual fees for 10 years) + Undefined (some additional time) - C (money recovered upon selling DVC contract) < or > D (rental for 10 years) + Undefined (some additional time)

The issue is you need a defined timeframe to actually do the math or it errors out.



The original poster was stating they viewed the contract as worth $0 after 10 years. That is a incorrect statement (which I keep saying) because if you truly believed that then you would rent if you were only going to hold the DVC contract for 10 years then sell.

If you are planning on holding for 20 years then you do the math off 20 years then the equation above changes and likely comes out in favor of buying.

In the end the poster simply was stating incorrect information as the only way DVC goes to $0 for a contract is if WDW goes under which I see only occurring if Florida no longer exists.

In the end being worth nothing is not even subjective its just a wrong assessment of DVC contracts and what they will sell for after 10 years.

This is becoming pedantic.

I didn't change any math because I never said I was using any math. My comments had nothing to do with math. In fact, I didn't say ANY of those things. What I DID say was a cautionary note to new posters and wasn't directed at you or anyone else in the thread (including the original poster). It was an aside, a tangential comment not directed at or relating to any of that stuff you keep arguing with me about (I even said so outright). I'm not saying you're wrong. You may be right, you may be wrong, I'm not trying to posit an alternative means of valuation on DVC points. I don't know and don't care.

For the REALLY, REALLY last time, my ONLY point was to caution people who read these threads to understand that the term "nothing" means different things to different people. There are a couple dozen examples in this very thread alone. That's it. That's all. There's nothing more.

You keep saying your method is right, and mine is wrong, but I never said yours was wrong and I don't even have a method and haven't suggested some other alternate either. You criticisms of the OP may be valid, but I never said he was right, or wrong or you were right or wrong. I've already told you I'm not disagreeing with you or arguing with you, but you don't seem happy with that.

 

[sethschroeder]

My comments had nothing to do with math.

Which is the disconnect as the whole conversation was about the math and how you should buy or rent.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

In the end the poster simply was stating incorrect information as the only way DVC goes to $0 for a contract is if WDW goes under which I see only occurring if Florida no longer exists.

There are lots of ways that DVC goes to $0 and people who own should have their eyes wide open about this. I'm an owner but I understand this risk. Nearly every other major-market timeshare is worth pennies on the dollar on the resale market. Disney has been adopting more and more anti-user policies over the years (resale restrictions, etc.). There's no reason to think that DVC eventually being similar in resale value to Wyndham or Marriott is impossible. It **probably** won't happen, but it's definitely not impossible.

 

[Nursemanit]

There are lots of ways that DVC goes to $0 and people who own should have their eyes wide open about this. I'm an owner but I understand this risk. Nearly every other major-market timeshare is worth pennies on the dollar on the resale market. Disney has been adopting more and more anti-user policies over the years (resale restrictions, etc.). There's no reason to think that DVC eventually being similar in resale value to Wyndham or Marriott is impossible. It **probably** won't happen, but it's definitely not impossible.

Most go to $0 value when maintenance fees keep rising, so they short the maintenance to keep the owners happy ( unlike DVC in non-leasehold timeshares, the owners vote). The units get dated, so they can't support the cash room rates, then they decline to the point the renters stop, then the value is 0 or negative since they are paying MF for a unit that they don't want to stay in and can't sell.

DVC has WDW, and no pesky activist owners getting on the board. So I would have to agree that it would not go to 0 unless WDW went out of business. But that is not as far-fetched as you think. IBM, GE, GM all at one time "would never go under."

 

[NVDISFamily]

I might be insane but I plan on riding our contracts out and will see the end of our VGC contracts (currently our first resort to expire in 2060) like Kong riding the rocket in Dr. Stranglove. Didn't buy to resale in 10 or so years. Bought to force the issue of not spending my extra cash on stupid things that don't bring the family together. Owning DVC forces the issue of having great time with the family for years to come. It's not an investment, it's a practical way to spend a bit less on nice rooms at Disney.

 

[sethschroeder]

There are lots of ways that DVC goes to $0 and people who own should have their eyes wide open about this. I'm an owner but I understand this risk. Nearly every other major-market timeshare is worth pennies on the dollar on the resale market. Disney has been adopting more and more anti-user policies over the years (resale restrictions, etc.). There's no reason to think that DVC eventually being similar in resale value to Wyndham or Marriott is impossible. It **probably** won't happen, but it's definitely not impossible.

Tell me then 3 ways that are realistic? DVC bolted to WDW is not the same as any other timeshare.

I am saying its not "probably wont" but highly highly highly unlikely to happen.

 

[sethschroeder]

IBM, GE, GM all at one time "would never go under."

And guess what they didnt and are worth plenty of money these days......

Again like I said WDW would need to go under because that is what DVC is tied to. They would either need to start selling all their land (in side the bubble) to Hilton and Marriot or simply shut the doors.

IBM, GE, GM also all have the issue of being massive companies not small entities tied to real estate. So what you are suggesting is that a competitor in Universal creates a better product and runs WDW in to the ground?

 

[sethschroeder]

It's not an investment

Correct but I think at the same time many would say you still compare options to get to the same end result. Nothing wrong with what you did where you need to sink the money to pull you in to force the issue.

Many people come here though comparing options of how to vacation at Disney for less.

With you riding it out to the end though buying is 100% the way to go.

 

[Nursemanit]

Thank god we have an ignore feature

 

[sethschroeder]

Most go to $0 value when maintenance fees keep rising

I want to add we talked about this elsewhere that this is the reason that DVC and other timeshares are different. You can have a spike in a specific holding company with timeshares anywhere else that make it more expensive than surround hotels, airbnb, and other options. With DVC though MFs are tied directly to the operation of the resorts Disney owns. Meaning Disney still will need to put profit on top of those costs to make money off the hotels they run.

So the MFs would never come that close to the actual cash stay alternative in the long haul.

 

[sethschroeder]

Thank god we have an ignore feature

Sorry that you are wrong with your stance but I can't help for pointing out the issues that people bring up.

I guess good for you for sticking your head in the sand?

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Most go to $0 value when maintenance fees keep rising, so they short the maintenance to keep the owners happy ( unlike DVC in non-leasehold timeshares, the owners vote). The units get dated, so they can't support the cash room rates, then they decline to the point the renters stop, then the value is 0 or negative since they are paying MF for a unit that they don't want to stay in and can't sell.

DVC has WDW, and no pesky activist owners getting on the board. So I would have to agree that it would not go to 0 unless WDW went out of business. But that is not as far-fetched as you think. IBM, GE, GM all at one time "would never go under."

Club Wyndham Bonnet Creek is regularly refurbished, is on Disney grounds, regularly sells out including it’s cash rates, and yet, I just bought a 259,000 point contract (enough for 8 days in a 2 bedroom over Christmas each year, or two weeklong stays in a 2 bedroom during the low season) for $750 on ebay including closing costs (and honestly, I probably overpaid). The maintenance fees on that are approximately $1700 per year. I think the direct price for that from Wyndham is somewhere north of $50,000.

I’m not saying that DVC is likely to go to zero, but it definitely **could** happen, and people who buy DVC should have their eyes wide open that they are buying to use It, and not because it is necessarily going to hold it’s value in some fashion when they go to sell it.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Tell me then 3 ways that are realistic?

One way would be the practical effect of the resale restrictions once the 2042 resorts expire but especially once we get close to the 2050 resorts expiring. Another way would be if Disney follows the Chapek path of continuing to devalue the product (hopefully that gets reversed). Again, I think DVC probably holds it’s value, but I still think it’s important that people buy to use and not buy as some sort of investment.

 

[ajiuo]

I bought a 25 point add on contract direct for AKV. I wanted 185 points for my original resale contract. But ended up with a 160 after I got ROFRed. I decided to go direct because after only having to pay one month of dues for a full years points and lower closing cost. It wasn’t that big of a difference for that small of a contract, plus I figured I could use those points at the new Disneyland tower if I wanted… now I’ve got a deal for 100 @ VGC… so that won’t be as big of an issue. But it will be nice to use those 25 points to sample. Riviera, Disneyland, and other future resorts if I want… I’m happy always staying at my 2 11 month resorts and all my 7 month options.., but the small 25 points gives me the flexibility to try new ones with not a huge extra cost for the 25 points.

Also it was way easy… I would’ve been sitting around forever waiting for a 25 point contract in a February use year…. So yeah, I think it can be worth it in some cases. I’m super happy with my situation.

 

[sethschroeder]

One way would be the practical effect of the resale restrictions once the 2042 resorts expire but especially once we get close to the 2050 resorts expiring. Another way would be if Disney follows the Chapek path of continuing to devalue the product (hopefully that gets reversed).

Except that wouldn't have it go to zero? People buy already to stay just at Beach Club, Riviera (already that way), Grand Floridian, and others. Heck the highest price DVC is one that people pretty much only stay at when buying resale.

What exactly would they do though to make it so DVC goes to zero? Its still going to be long term less expensive than staying on cash at the hotels.

 

[Nursemanit]

Club Wyndham Bonnet Creek is regularly refurbished, is on Disney grounds, regularly sells out including it’s cash rates, and yet, I just bought a 259,000 point contract (enough for 8 days in a 2 bedroom over Christmas each year, or two weeklong stays in a 2 bedroom during the low season) for $750 on ebay including closing costs (and honestly, I probably overpaid). The maintenance fees on that are approximately $1700 per year. I think the direct price for that from Wyndham is somewhere north of $50,000.

I’m not saying that DVC is likely to go to zero, but it definitely **could** happen, and people who buy DVC should have their eyes wide open that they are buying to use It, and not because it is necessarily going to hold it’s value in some fashion when they go to sell it.

Is WBC sold out ?

 

[sethschroeder]

is on Disney grounds

Not really

It has no direct access to parks, you can't trade in to direct access and do you even go to MK its the TTC right?

DVC is a different animal.