I'm a recent purchaser and went direct. I had spent years crunching the numbers (2018-2022), and had been planning on resale for most of that time. Once VGF was (re)offered, it started to make more sense to go direct for our particular situation. It gave me a long remaining contract at a highly desirable monorail property that suited how we vacation. Going direct probably cost my family an addition $4000-5000 dollars. But it yielded a much easier transaction experience, an immediate ability to use those points for a planned December 2022 vacation (which saved us about $3000 right there), and gave my spouse peace of mind wrt
DVC perks being "assured" (such as TotW Lounge and the DVC discount), and I could use those points at future resorts.
If we ever decide to purchase additional points we would probably select resale, since the benefits of direct are now diminished.
In the end, I was more comfortable making this particular purchase direct. It was a gut feeling. I felt no sense of regret, even as I watched the resale VGF price drop down by several dollars per point this spring and summer. Got to make a decision you can live with, and the metrics are different for different people/families.