From the critically acclaimed and ever popular series Fireside chats with @SouthFayetteFan comes the newest installment:
"What Now? How to Re-calibrate Your Churning Strategy"
(WARNING - THIS IS GOING TO BE SUPER LONG!)
I know many of you out there are wondering how to navigate the new reality in 2020. And no...I'm not talking about some pandemic - I'm talking about the fact that Chase Business Cards might be dead (or at the very least they are highly hit or miss with many more "misses" than "hits" lately).
First, a brief history lesson:
Imagine if you will a simpler churning time where 5/24 did not exist. Where a churner could pursue any card their heart desired. To some this may seem like a fairy tale land that could never have existed, but for the old guard, we remember it fondly as the golden era of churning. In my humble opinion, the introduction of 5/24 in early 2015 was the most impactful change to churning strategy that has ever occurred. Others may argue it was Amex introducing once per lifetime, but I hold to the fact that 5/24, the timing of when it was introduced, and subsequent fall-out with other issuers after the fact changed the churning landscape forever.
When 5/24 came along, suddenly the "get all the cards, as quickly as possible" strategy came into question. It actually took quite awhile for us to figure out that Chase business cards did NOT count in the "5" (although they were still subject to the 5/24 rule) - that fact I believe was discovered later in 2016. So as things evolved, for people who valued their <5/24 status, the strategy of all biz cards became very valuable. For those under 5/24, Chase biz cards were a lucrative way to protect your 5/24 status and continue to rake in URs. For those over 5/24 trying to get back under, biz cards from other issuers were a godsend.
I employed such a strategy throughout much of 2016-2018 when getting back under 5/24. From June 2016 until now my wife has gotten 15 cards and 13 of them were for her small business. For me, it started in Oct of 2017 when I got 10 straight business cards until recently going for a SW personal offer.
Nonetheless, once one obtained a sub 5/24 status (or for somebody starting out) if you had a qualifying small business, it has been relatively easy to maintain that precious status through Chase's extensive lineup of great biz card offers! That is...until recently:
So what's changed:
Thanks for bearing with me on the history lesson. As you might know, churning history is one of my hobbies (yes, I realize how pathetic that in addition having credit cards be a hobby of mine... the history of credit card offers is also a hobby... but I digress)...
Let's go over the recent plethora of (bad) news:
- Late March: CIP introduces a public 100k UR/$15k MSR offer
- Just days later: I write-up a fireside chat hypothesizing that 80k UR CIP support links might be doomed
- April 1st: That hypothesis starts to appear like a reality as the ability to generate new CIP links is taken away
- As April continues: Existing links continue to work...but it feels like it's only a matter of time. At some point during the month, the ability to generate CIU/CIP links also disappears.
- April 16th: Chase makes some major changes to their business card application format and appears to tighten up on sole prop approvals.
- Days Ago: I share additional thoughts on the disappearance of support links.
And as you likely have read on the thread, there are scattered DPs of biz card applications going immediately to 7-10 days, and getting flat out denied. Few and far between are the success stories, and they are unexplainable... there does not appear to be a "secret sauce" to getting a Chase Biz card right now. I know that some of us are searching for the "reason" behind this (is it COVID, if not, what is it?)... truthfully it doesn't matter. I would assume that this change is permanent. Rarely does something change for the negative in this game and then later get better again. It's a shame, but it's often true - embrace this as the new reality.
So where does this leave us?
- We cannot assume that Chase business cards will be a part of our go forward strategy.
This should come as no surprise. There are constant warnings on the thread and in different forums/blogs that the only constant in churning is change. Some might remember in a previous fireside chat that I HIGHLY recommended going for 2 Chase SW Biz cards to reach your CP this year leaving the personal option open for the future. I promise I have no insider information here, I just sometimes take really good guesses... But again, assume this is a permanent change.
- STOP cancelling your existing Chase Biz cards when the AF posts.
This might be your last chance to hold a CIP, CIC, or CIU. With the game constantly in flux, you want to keep these cards OPEN so you could PC them in the future if something good comes along. Also, try to keep ample Biz Credit Limit available across those cards so that you can use it to PC in the future if necessary. I might consider holding 2 CICs right now vs. cancelling a CIP. What if the long-rumored Chase Ink Reserve comes along and you want it due to some awesome benefits? You gotta have an open card to do a PC to grab it! If you think I'm crazy here, just ask the people who hold the old Chase Ink+ how they feel about that card (am I right,
@calypso726 and
@Albort ???)
EDIT: To be clear,
I’m not advocating for people to pay AFs. Just don’t cancel the card! PC it to a CIC or a CIU and avoid the AF. IF you cancel you might never get a CIC in the future. I’d rather have 3 CICs now than cancel 2 of my Chase biz cards and only have 1. IF I want a CIP again the future for some purpose (it to transfer URs to partners) I need a card to PC from. I have NEVER regretted PCing a card and leaving it open. You can always call back and cancel it tomorrow, or a month from now, or a year from now!
- ADDENDUM: Assess how you should best manage your Chase credit limits.
A wise person (aka
@Lain) mentioned that this would be a good time to also call out that certain PCs require a minimum CL. We've seen that PCing a biz card often requires at least $5k in CL. PCing to a CSR might require $10k. These policies can vary a bit by card, but it's important to keep enough CL available to complete these PCs when necessary. It's also important to note that you can easily transfer CL between personal cards, or between business cards (but not between the 2 categories) very easily by calling in or even via SM. So each card doesn't need to keep significant CL on it, BUT overall you need to have enough CL to effectively accomplish a PC. (It's also possible to increase CLs down the line if you agree to a credit pull but I would be especially wary of doing this on biz cards as it could spark a review of your account and not bring a favorable result!)
- Familiarize yourself with all other Biz Card issuers:
- American Express remains a fickle beast. The pop-up always looms, keeping in their good graces with ongoing spend can be difficult, BUT they might become an important part of your future strategy. Focus on all-time best offers as the once per lifetime rule makes all of their cards "un-churnable".
- Citi has limited biz card options but if you can find a good use for AA miles that card seems like a no-brainer to mix in while preserving your 5/24 status. Make sure it's at a high offer because once you get it, you're locked out for 48 months. And don't play games with Citi sign-up offers because they will come for you, they will find you, and they will kill you... (or at least shut you down).
- Barclays is a great mystery. They have some decent biz cards out there but they are inconsistent in their application procedures. It seems like you want to have some sort to biz card history before going with them (maybe?) or they might ask for lots of entity documents and proof of business income. Again, they are very inconsistent with this so don't let it spook you from trying them.
- Bank of America should die a slow painful death... Oh, wait - they haven't wronged your family yet? Well they will... but for those able to get approved, they have some decent biz cards. I hate them and always will - but don't let my personal vendetta stand in the way of lucrative offers. Also be advised that they have inconsistent application procedures and might ask for entity documents and proof of business income.
- Others: There are others out there. If you find a good offer or have a good "other" biz card - please share with the group! Also, be wary of any biz card issuers (Cap1 for example) that show up on your personal credit report. That achieves nothing as it still hits your "5" count in the 5/24 status.
- Evaluate if staying under 5/24 still makes sense:
As a group, we are primarily slow churners. I think the majority of us here are <5/24. That's ok...people on r/churning might make fun of us, but that's not cool, because as I've said many times: there's no wrong way to churn. That said, this new situation could be a game changer for YOU. Evaluate if <5/24 is the right strategy going forward. And if you're in 2 player mode, perhaps you go half and half.
To be clear, I'm not saying that this is the RIGHT answer... I'm just saying it warrants consideration.
If you're eligible and haven't gotten a CSP and/or CSR yet, think about how long 48 months is. Get them NOW because 2024 is a long way away (the next time you'll be able to churn them). If you have a CSP/CSR in your past, figure out when you're eligible again and is it worth waiting around for that? If your plan is to churn SW personal cards and CSP/CSR going forward, you're going to need to fill in A LOT of gaps between the one-sapphire, one-southwest, and 24month and 48month rules respectively.
- If you decide to break out of 5/24:
While you're still under, make sure to get the cards you want, because you might never get them again. If you want a Hyatt card, a SW card, a Freedom...get them before you go over. And consider doing a 4/24 MDD to push the envelope and get that one extra Chase card. Also, NEVER close your Chase cards unless you're sure you won't want them in the future. Remember what I said earlier about being able to PC - you have to have open cards to do that! And that principle would also apply to personal cards for those >5/24.
- I have REALLY high organic spend...what should I do:
You're going to find that attempting to stay <5/24 will leave your without an MSR a lot of the time. BUT even going >5/24 could cause you issues because of Amex Popups and other things. Face the facts...with high organic spend you cannot always be MSRing... I know, that's sad, but it's your reality! Prioritize cards with category bonuses that work to your advantage. Have a Chase Freedom, a CIC, an Amex Gold, an Amex BBP, an Amex BCP (or others that fit your spending pattern) in your arsenal to earn major points in certain categories. Be strategic with your new cards and keep Amex happy with regular spend across all of your cards.
- We should immediately stop advising newbies to attempt Chase business cards.
An inquiry and a denial out of the gate is probably a tough way to start the game. I've adjusted my header comment on the CIP discussion thread on DISchurners as a result of this. I would not necessarily dissuade somebody from attempting a Chase Biz card, but since we ALWAYS provide the best advice here, you need to call out the risks. Other biz cards should probably still be emphasized though where appropriate (but keep in mind what was previously mentioned on this topic).
I'd also remind people that inquiries do not hurt your credit score in a large way so it's not necessarily a huge risk to try something. If somebody's score drops, IMO - it's not due to a simple inquiry. It's probably utilization or something else at play which can easily fix itself a month later.
- So what SHOULD we tell newbies:
Well, that's tricky. I think it's important to emphasize how biz cards can help them extend their <5/24 status. Make sure they're aware of the pitfalls of Amex (one card and then pop-up purgatory is a tough way to start); but emphasize that small biz cards are still a viable strategy. Also make them aware of the 48 month rule and one-sapphire rule on CSP and CSR. Getting a CSP and/or CSR out of the gate could make sense to get that 48 month clock ticking.
The MAJOR takeaway here though: I'd tell them to pause and take in all of the advice before making a move. 5/24 slots are basically like GOLD now so we want to be careful in rushing a newbie to a decision that might not be the best for them.
So what's this all mean? Is churning dead??
Of course not, you've heard me say this a million times before:
the game will change but it will also live on! BUT it will require us to adapt and be more thoughtful with our strategy. Some might decide to go in a whole new direction, others may stay the course are <5/24 but with adaptations to make it work.
I hope that we can all find a lucrative path forward in this new reality! 
We had a fantastic take-out brunch today at home. My gift to myself was a bag of King Arthur Bread Flour! I found some at WF and ordered online for delivery this morning, and miraculously the bag of flour wasn't cancelled. DD and I will attempt sourdough bread #3 this week - last week's bread was made with AP flour since that's all I had.
Honestly, until that trip I had no idea just how amazing that part of the planet really is.
I really want to do that one and Mediterranean without Italy wouldn’t be my first choice.
