I can't see me asking the girls to sacrifice parks time so dad can watch a football game... That seems like one of things I'd regret down the line when they're older. Gotta take advantage of these years and go meet characters and do fun things!
I really appreciate the idea but I'm just not a fan of the financial commitment for DVC and the unknown timing of trips in the future. I realize it works for other people but I know that our January Disney trips are on life support at this point. We thought last year was the last time, then this year was the last time...and now luckily the school calendar is playing nice so next year will still work (albeit at a busier time).
My kids are approaching those years where you can't plan trips out a year ahead of time and I would not be ok with "settling" for accommodations because I could only book 4-6 months in advance (or less). We also might need to start making some tougher decisions about how many trips we can feasibly take in a year, will Disney get the nod over important family vacations with our parents, and siblings?? I'm not even sure I could answer that for 2021, let alone 22 years from now. Could buying in save me some money...perhaps, or more realistically yes, it probably would save me some money. But I just don't like to sacrifice flexibility and control - I'm willing to pay more for what I want and for flexibility. I also am not crazy about the studio layouts and bed setup (I've looked at them when thinking about renting in the past) but the cost of the 1 bedroom seems substantially higher.
Since it's been a year or two since I've put math to it: It looks like for my 4 nights at YC next year I'd need 120 points to change that to BCV in a 1 bedroom as a DVC member. So I found a 120 pt contract for $19,907 + estimated dues over the next 22 years of $26,685 (I'm assuming a 3% avg increase each year) = $46,592 all in cost to lock in 22 years of our 4 night portion of our trip. That is over $2,100 per year. If instead of purchasing DVC, I took those exact sums and invested them over that period I could have close to $150k in 2042. There's hundreds of ways to analyze it - but for me, DVC just doesn't add up.
Of course the biggest thing in all of this is that I simply don't have $20k laying around right now. And when I do, this house could use some new windows, I have a van that's probably going to need to be replaced in the next 5-7 years, Our HVAC isn't exactly new, we have interest in doing some stone veneer on our foundation, and probably a bunch of other projects I could come up with.
I certainly don't mean this as a knock to the DVC program, people who are members, or even the mere suggestion that I evaluate it. I'm just providing a window into why we are not going the DVC route. I might ultimately pay thousands more towards my Disney trips over the next 2 decades IF we continue to go to Disney the way we have been, but I am ok with that trade-off based on the time I've spent looking at it. It was good to go through the exercise again today though to see if my opinion had changed