I just don’t agree with these crowd predictions.

[GaSleepingBeautyFan]

It's not that they are "off their rocker". It's that so many people are now taking their postponed trips or people are pandemic weary and now travelling again. So their algorithm based off of past year patterns is way off. Because this is not a normal year. Add that to the fact that stuff is still closed that is used to mitigate crowd control and it's just chaos.

I'm in Magic Kingdom right now and chaos is a great description. So thankful for my skipper canteen lunch reservations and their white sangria. Gonna help me survive the craziness till the after hours event starts.

 

[supersnoop]

Keep in mind that the "crowd calendar" is based on expected wait times. Touring Plans keeps themselves honest by posting a "how we did yesterday" analysis. They predicted Magic Kingdom would be a 3 yesterday, and it was actually a 6, so they were pretty far off on that one, but they over-estimated the crowd at Animal Kingdom.

 

[LilyWDW]

Touring Plans is a forecasting model. It uses information from the past to predict the future. The problem is, the last couple of years have not been normal. Last years data is going to skew the model. Then you have this year which also is not behaving "normally". This will lead it incorrect predictions. That is the limit of that sort of model. It's not that Touring Plans is TRYING to be wrong... it's just the type of model being used isn't flexible enough.

 

[gharter]

Crowds still aren't behaving the same as pre-pandemic. With no parades, minimal meet and greets and fewer shows, everyone is in line for a ride or out walking around. Even if you don't care about parades, characters and shows, these are massive people eaters and everyone should be hoping for them to fully return soon.

We noticed that in October. Missing attractions and activities that swallow up large numbers of people were greatly missed.
In HS, not having Indiana Jones taking out about 2000 per show makes a huge difference.
Same in MK, without an afternoon parade, that's lots of people in line waiting or just wondering around.
And all the character M&G hold a large number of guests.

 

[kandb]

I'm in Magic Kingdom right now and chaos is a great description. So thankful for my skipper canteen lunch reservations and their white sangria. Gonna help me survive the craziness till the after hours event starts.

Wow, MK packed on a Tuesday? I have to start checking wait times via the app. Not sure if we will keep our planned vacation. What was the worst wait time today?

 

[TandT]

Glad I’m not the only one who sees this. I’m really worried about our MK day on Wednesday.

We just did MK Monday and Today and the crowds were INSANE! We have been going to Disney since 2007 and it’s definitely different. Their WiFi crashed today because so many people were using it at Magic Kingdom—Mobile food orders and The Genie Also remember since opening up international traveling , everyone is coming to Disney World from other countries too making it more busy . Basically everyone is making up for lost vacation time lol .

 

[eileen2664]

I predict a sharp drop off in Jan that will slowly rise before peaking again in the spring break season.

i hope you’re right. We go in late Jan and I’m kinda bummed about Splash being closed on top of Everest being down…..low crowds would make the loss of two major coasters a bit more bearable.

 

[figmentfinesse]

i hope you’re right. We go in late Jan and I’m kinda bummed about Splash being closed on top of Everest being down…..low crowds would make the loss of two major coasters a bit more bearable.

I’m there 22-27 after getting off the Magic. I was also crushed by the Splash news today! I really really feel we will see low to moderate crowds.

 

[focusondisney]

Their WiFi crashed today because so many people were using it at Magic Kingdom—Mobile food orders and The Genie

It wasn’t a Disney Wi Fi issue. Amazon Web Services has been down most of the day, affecting many companies, Disney included.

 

[TandT]

It wasn’t a Disney Wi Fi issue. Amazon Web Services has been down most of the day, affecting many companies, Disney included.

Gotcha …. That’s what the cast member told us . They were having issues with the magic bands as well .

 

[Davey Jones II]

So does all this mean that Disney isn't limiting capacity anymore?

BTW, I did find that the crowd calendars were a great planning help for me, pre-pandemic.

 

[B-Ride]

I have noticed two trends. Increased crowds and more rain. Neither improve a trip to WDW.

No wait 4 trends. Add increased prices and reduced service.

 

[larjani]

We just got back home from a trip (12/6/-12/12). It was packed. Crowd calendars were way off. We've been before, so just focused on riding our favorite rides in the morning. We didn't get many dining reservations, but mobile ordering worked out well.

 

[gharter]

So does all this mean that Disney isn't limiting capacity anymore?

I think several things are still going on:
1. They are not limiting capacity like they used to
2. There is a lot of pent up demand from the last year, people have money and points to use.
3. They are still short on CMs
4. A lot of the attractions that were great people eaters (shows, parades, character M&G's) are not opened yet, so more people are wondering around instead of being at those attractions.