I don't get it! Where are all the resales GONE??

[DenLo]

Demand or no demand I still think there are a good few sellers who have over-cooked the asking prices. There are several BLT contracts available where the price is so high it offers tiny or no savings over direct. That is surely going to put most buyers off for now and impact demand

Oh, I think it's quite possible they are just trying to get the money they paid for their BLT contracts back. Not everyone paid under $100 per point for BLT.

 

[thptrek]

I just bought BLT at $89. If it was near $100 I would have just gone direct. My first contract was rofr'd but I hung in there to try again. Resale works only if savings are there

 

[dbs1228]

Increased demand increases the demand for both direct and resale contract.

Increased demand for resale reduced the supply of resale contracts.

Increase demand for direct contracts increases the level of ROFR which reduces the supply of resale contracts while still keeping the demand for resale contracts unchanged.

So we agree, the increase in demand is the driving force

I agree with this BUT - there were at least (that we know of) about 25 contracts for BWV alone taken (in a 2 week time frame) that is 25 buyers now buying the next contracts to be listed - thus decreasing supply. If those 25+ contracts were not taken there would be 25+ more BWV contracts on the resale market today - competetion. Yes it is supply and demand I am confident that once Disney stops ROFR supply will increase and demand will go down.

 

[DougEMG]

I agree with this BUT - there were at least (that we know of) about 25 contracts for BWV alone taken (in a 2 week time frame) that is 25 buyers now buying the next contracts to be listed - thus decreasing supply. If those 25+ contracts were not taken there would be 25+ more BWV contracts on the resale market today - competetion. Yes it is supply and demand I am confident that once Disney stops ROFR supply will increase and demand will go down.

I'll agree with your BUT. It is reasonable to assume that when Disney announced the increase in prices that they created a bump in demand (probably just bring future demand forward) which in turn sucked up the supply of BWV faster than normal.

 

[lodge]

I just bought BLT at $89. If it was near $100 I would have just gone direct. My first contract was rofr'd but I hung in there to try again. Resale works only if savings are there

Or if someone is looking to bypass the point requirement for initial buy in.

 

[sgtpet]

I don't see any VWL resales on the timeshare store site. I wonder what that would go for? Any thoughts?

 

[NoleFan]

I don't see any VWL resales on the timeshare store site. I wonder what that would go for? Any thoughts?

Averaging Low to high 70's depending on contract.

 

[miprender]

I don't see any VWL resales on the timeshare store site. I wonder what that would go for? Any thoughts?

I was able to snag 50 VWL points in Feb for $65/pp (dec u/y) but it had no 2013 points

 

[rusafee1183]

I don't see any VWL resales on the timeshare store site. I wonder what that would go for? Any thoughts?

We just put an offer on a VWL contract for $79pp. It has all of the points for 2013, going forward - and we didn't want to mess around with negotiating and lose this contract because it is exactly what we wanted.

It went to ROFR today, so we'll see if Disney steals this one away or not. I am not feeling great since they have been taking so many lately. I am going to be nervous all month.

 

[sgtpet]

We just put an offer on a VWL contract for $79pp. It has all of the points for 2013, going forward - and we didn't want to mess around with negotiating and lose this contract because it is exactly what we wanted.

It went to ROFR today, so we'll see if Disney steals this one away or not. I am not feeling great since they have been taking so many lately. I am going to be nervous all month.

Good luck, let us know if you get it.

 

[rusafee1183]

Good luck, let us know if you get it.

I definitely will. Thanks! I am a little nervous about it because it feels like a tricky time to put in offers. I know how few VWL contracts are out there, and I know how long the waitlist is direct (we inquired last week) and I have been seeing a lot more contracts ROFR'd than usual.

I have a bad feeling, but I am hopeful. It will be very discouraging to lose this one. It's EXACTLY what we need.

 

[DougEMG]

Yesterday I saw a new 500 point BWV contract listed at one of the brokers so I put in a offer figuring I shouldn't have much competition for such a large contract. Was I wrong! Found out this morning that it had already sold.

 

[NoleFan]

Yesterday I saw a new 500 point BWV contract listed at one of the brokers so I put in a offer figuring I shouldn't have much competition for such a large contract. Was I wrong! Found out this morning that it had already sold.

Off topic question Doug but you seem to have a bit of experience with DVC. For RORF purposes, does DVC exercise RORF more frequently on larger contracts than smaller (75 points or less)?? I know the availability of smaller contract is more limits & also are typically more expensive.

 

[DougEMG]

Off topic question Doug but you seem to have a bit of experience with DVC. For RORF purposes, does DVC exercise RORF more frequently on larger contracts than smaller (75 points or less)?? I know the availability of smaller contract is more limits & also are typically more expensive.

No one knows exactly how or why Disney exercises ROFR, we all just have guesses.

I beleive that Disney can repackage a large contract into a number of smaller ones, UY has to stay the same though, so it doesn't really matter what they take.

My personal thought is that ROFR is driven purely by how many people are waiting for points on the wait lists. Given that they can wait 30 days for every contract, that givens them a 30 day window to wait to see if anything better comes in during that time.

If you look at the data from the last 12 months, the average size of a contract that was ROFR was 211 points. I've seen 50 point contracts taken and I've lost a 400 point contract myself. It's probably nothing more than what the average contract size is out there, so I don't think that there is any relationship between contract size and chance of getting ROFR.

Your best chance of passing ROFR is having someone else submit the same resort and UY year with a lower price at the same time as you

 

[rusafee1183]

No one knows exactly how or why Disney exercises ROFR, we all just have guesses.

I beleive that Disney can repackage a large contract into a number of smaller ones, UY has to stay the same though, so it doesn't really matter what they take.

My personal thought is that ROFR is driven purely by how many people are waiting for points on the wait lists. Given that they can wait 30 days for every contract, that givens them a 30 day window to wait to see if anything better comes in during that time.

If you look at the data from the last 12 months, the average size of a contract that was ROFR was 211 points. I've seen 50 point contracts taken and I've lost a 400 point contract myself. It's probably nothing more than what the average contract size is out there, so I don't think that there is any relationship between contract size and chance of getting ROFR.

Your best chance of passing ROFR is having someone else submit the same resort and UY year with a lower price at the same time as you

Yikes.... well, I know for a fact there are a lot of people waiting on VWL (we added ourselves to the waitlist last week and our guide said 50 people were in front of us). It's looking less and less likely for my contract to pass.

 

[Breyean]

Your best chance of passing ROFR is having someone else submit the same resort and UY year with a lower price at the same time as you

I really think this is true. Look what two posters reported today on the ROFR thread. Both BLT, same UY, same price, one for 210 the other for 300 points.

One passed today and was was ROFR'd. I wonder which was reviewed first and if they took that one and then didn't need the second.

I also think this helped me pass at VGC a couple of months ago. Right before mine, there were several with a lot of points for my UY, but I passed since they were too many points.

When my was listed, I even joked with the broker that we should time submission to Disney to be right after those others because they could have picked up a lot of points with any of them, maybe satisfying the wait list for my UY.

Don't know if it worked out that way, but I passed at $90, which seems to be a pretty good price.

So maybe your statement has some truth to it.

 

[NoleFan]

No one knows exactly how or why Disney exercises ROFR, we all just have guesses.

I beleive that Disney can repackage a large contract into a number of smaller ones, UY has to stay the same though, so it doesn't really matter what they take.

My personal thought is that ROFR is driven purely by how many people are waiting for points on the wait lists. Given that they can wait 30 days for every contract, that givens them a 30 day window to wait to see if anything better comes in during that time.

If you look at the data from the last 12 months, the average size of a contract that was ROFR was 211 points. I've seen 50 point contracts taken and I've lost a 400 point contract myself. It's probably nothing more than what the average contract size is out there, so I don't think that there is any relationship between contract size and chance of getting ROFR.

Your best chance of passing ROFR is having someone else submit the same resort and UY year with a lower price at the same time as you

Helpful, thanks for the insight.

 

[ELMC]

No one knows exactly how or why Disney exercises ROFR, we all just have guesses.

I beleive that Disney can repackage a large contract into a number of smaller ones, UY has to stay the same though, so it doesn't really matter what they take.

My personal thought is that ROFR is driven purely by how many people are waiting for points on the wait lists. Given that they can wait 30 days for every contract, that givens them a 30 day window to wait to see if anything better comes in during that time.

If you look at the data from the last 12 months, the average size of a contract that was ROFR was 211 points. I've seen 50 point contracts taken and I've lost a 400 point contract myself. It's probably nothing more than what the average contract size is out there, so I don't think that there is any relationship between contract size and chance of getting ROFR.

Your best chance of passing ROFR is having someone else submit the same resort and UY year with a lower price at the same time as you

You make some very good points here. This is what bothers me...we've seen contracts pass ROFR when people have been on the wait list for fewer points in the same UY. If all DVD cared about was filling the wait list request, then there is no way that the contract should have passed. And yet it did.

 

[DougEMG]

You make some very good points here. This is what bothers me...we've seen contracts pass ROFR when people have been on the wait list for fewer points in the same UY. If all DVD cared about was filling the wait list request, then there is no way that the contract should have passed. And yet it did.

The only way this would make sense is if either at the resale price was too low for Disney to make a reasonable profit or if they were expecting something with a better price to come along.

Another criteria could be how easy is it to purchase the contract, foreign sellers might not be as attractive to buy from because of the delay and a longer delay means the person on the wait list could change their mind.

Another criteria could be that they prefer to take contracts that have been financed through them, then they know for sure the sale won't collapse and they not get their money. Or perhaps they don't want to buy them to increase the chance of people defaulting and they get to foreclose on those contracts.


All comes back to is no one knows exactly what their criteria is, but I'm fairly confident it has to do with money.

If they really wanted to mess with people and felt fairly confident they could sell any points they picked up quickly they could try and drive resale prices up (in order to make direct appear more attractive) by taking the occasional higher priced contract.

 

[johnsbelt]

The only way this would make sense is if either at the resale price was too low for Disney to make a reasonable profit or if they were expecting something with a better price to come along.

Another criteria could be how easy is it to purchase the contract, foreign sellers might not be as attractive to buy from because of the delay and a longer delay means the person on the wait list could change their mind.

Another criteria could be that they prefer to take contracts that have been financed through them, then they know for sure the sale won't collapse and they not get their money. Or perhaps they don't want to buy them to increase the chance of people defaulting and they get to foreclose on those contracts.


All comes back to is no one knows exactly what their criteria is, but I'm fairly confident it has to do with money.

If they really wanted to mess with people and felt fairly confident they could sell any points they picked up quickly they could try and drive resale prices up (in order to make direct appear more attractive) by taking the occasional higher priced contract.

Doug,

Your second last paragraph is the probably the driving factor.

One thing that I've casually noticed (no hard data from tracking), is that the most likely to be taken by ROFR is a loaded contract or one that is almost at the beginning of its next UY with the full amount of points (or maybe just short a few). For example, a contract with a June UY that has no 2012 points but all of its 2013 points is a prime candidate for ROFR. An August UY with no current points but all 2013 points (next UY at this time), might be a decent candidate as by the time they make a decision (30 days), then close (another 10-30), the beginning of the UY is almost here and they can repackage it and sell it in less than 30 days. A March UY that has no current points would not be considered since the points are not available until 2014. DVD has no idea on what the demand will be 10 months from now so why take a chance and tie up the money. Contracts DVD can flip quickly will be the most susceptable.

The final thought would also be that they might just be playing with us. If they would ROFR too quickly, then the mystique of the direct purchase would be blown. If it were too easy to puchase direct on the "classic" resorts, then DVD couldn't push the latest and greatest as easily. As Mel Brooks said in "History of the World, Part 1", the secret is "Merchandising".

John