I don't get it! Where are all the resales GONE??

[alirwalsh4]

Can someone explain to me what happened to all the resales? I haven't looked since maybe September/October, but there was plenty and now there are so few and the prices seem to have gone up? Would love to buy "just one more" but now just doesn't seem to be the time??

 

[chalee94]

supply dried up a little and demand went crazy. (yay for the economy...i guess... )

i'd wait and try again later. (or expect to pay a bit more if you buy now.)

 

[ELMC]

Also, with all the ROFR activity, buyers who would normally buy one contract and then go away were having to buy two or three (or in my case five) before actually getting to keep one. The high levels of ROFR activity ate up a lot of the available contracts.

 

[luckyman_apd]

Makes me glad I bought 18 months ago

 

[abner1776]

When prices are heading south, everyone wants to sell to get the highest price possible and when prices are heading north, everyone holds off selling to see where the high point is to get the highest price.

IMHO sellers today are holding off to see where the prices are heading so they can maximize their proceeds on the sale. Once DVD stops these crazy price increases and resale sales level off, then I think you will see more sellers jumping into the market.

 

[Minniesgal]

I do think some sellers have gotten a bit over optimistic though and it is probably due for a correction.

 

[NoleFan]

I do think some sellers have gotten a bit over optimistic though and it is probably due for a correction.

Very true!

 

[McCrae]

I do think some sellers have gotten a bit over optimistic though and it is probably due for a correction.

I don't agree.... With the economy improving and the stock market doing well prices are going only in one direction and that is up.

Have you noticed the Disney special offers have gone... no free dining... Discounts on theme park passes hard to get. Demand for Disney is good and this is just the start of the recovery. Expect this to go on for years.

 

[NoleFan]

Stripped resale contracts moving close to $100/pp & direct $130 & upwards- no thanks! I don't care how good the economy is, I'll hold onto my $$ at those prices. Can't justify those prices. Glad I contracted prior to this.

 

[DougEMG]

The improving economy has caused a reducion in the supply as less people are forced to sell and at the same time caused an increase in the demand . So less supply combined with more demand means less resale contracts for sale.All of this leads to an increase in prices.

Exact same thing happened in the housing market. Houses are now coming off their lows. US house prices are up 10% in the last year and 30% in Vegas.

Anyone who is waiting for prices to fall back down to what they were a year ago could end up waiting a very long time.

Remember that just like buyers want to pay as little as possible, sellers want to get as much as possible and right now the sellers have the advantage.

 

[dbs1228]

I do believe prices will not fall as low as they were a year ago anytime soon but I do not see them keep going up either! Disney ROFR had the BIGGEST in pact on the rising prices IMO and once they stop taking contracts things will adjust somewhat. People were bidding over asking because they are afraid Disney will take the contract.

Resale companies are the ones advising sellers/ and buyers what the market is right now - what will pass/ how much to sell for. If Disney did not ROFR BWV contracts in the high 60's and let them go through I strongly believe BWV contracts would currently be listed in the mid to high 60's vs. mid to high 70's - also there would be a lot less buyers trying to buy BWV since they would have already bought what was taken back by Disney.

 

[DougEMG]

I do believe prices will not fall as low as they were a year ago anytime soon but I do not see them keep going up either! Disney ROFR had the BIGGEST in pact on the rising prices IMO and once they stop taking contracts things will adjust somewhat. People were bidding over asking because they are afraid Disney will take the contract.

Resale companies are the ones advising sellers/ and buyers what the market is right now - what will pass/ how much to sell for. If Disney did not ROFR BWV contracts in the high 60's and let them go through I strongly believe BWV contracts would currently be listed in the mid to high 60's vs. mid to high 70's - also there would be a lot less buyers trying to buy BWV since they would have already bought what was taken back by Disney.

I'm more of a believer that supply and demand sets prices, not ROFR.

Current direct prices for BWV are $130. Buying resale you do have some restrictions in place which has some sort of dollar value to it, but essentially you are getting the same product regardless of who you buy from. So why the big difference in price for the same product?

Most of the contract I bought were loaded contracts which meant people had been paying MF for multiple years but not been able to go, which implies to me that they were desperate to sell. Today a lot of contracts for sale are stripped, which to me means the sellers are not desperate to sell but instead are trying to maximize their profit from the sale. So you blinks first, buyers or sellers. With buyers offering more it kind of implies the buyers are blinking first.

Once we start hearing reports of buyers getting into bidding wars for contracts then we'll know that it really has turned into a sellers market.

 

[NoleFan]

I'm more of a believer that supply and demand sets prices, not ROFR.

ROFR does impact supply & demand on the resale market significantly.

 

[chalee94]

ROFR does impact supply & demand significantly.

question: do you think disney would ROFR as actively as they have recently if demand were not sufficient to cause waitlists for direct sales of sold-out resorts?

i also think DVC has a sales infrastructure in place and is running out of supply of inventory as BLT moved to "sold-out" status. so while DVC might not make as high a margin on ROFR'ed points as they do on a new resort, this seems like it could be a temporary strategy to keep things rolling till the VGF comes online.

i would tend to agree with doug. i think disney's ROFR decisions are a result of supply and demand, rather than the other way around. but i'm sure only the executives know for certain...

 

[DougEMG]

To give you an example of the change in prices in the last year.

In March of 2012 I had an offer accepted for

OKW 400 points at $39 with 183 for 2011 + 800 for 2012 + 400 for 2013 with buyer paying closing and MF.

Today I just saw an OKW 190 contract listed at $65 with 1 for 2013 + 190 for 2014 + 190 for 2015.

So that contract from last year was $26/point cheaper and had 2.5 years of points with it.

Now I did lose my contract to ROFR , but I'm pretty sure ROFR alone did not cause such a big change in prices.

Smart sellers are seeing that there is an increased demand for DVC contracts and then are naturally going to start raising the prices they are asking.

 

[DougEMG]

ROFR does impact supply & demand significantly.

The advice I and others always gave was never to bid up your price just because you were worried about passing ROFR. So no, I don't think ROFR impacts supply and demand. I believe demand impacts ROFR.

 

[NoleFan]

Increase in ROFR, reduces the supply of resale contracts & drives up the cost of resale contracts. ROFR is not the only factor in driving up prices. If the economy is doing better, more people have $$$ to spend.

 

[DougEMG]

Increase in ROFR, reduces the supply of resale contracts & drives up the cost of resale contracts. ROFR is not the only factor in driving up prices. If the economy is doing better, more people have $$$ to spend.

Increased demand increases the demand for both direct and resale contract.

Increased demand for resale reduced the supply of resale contracts.

Increase demand for direct contracts increases the level of ROFR which reduces the supply of resale contracts while still keeping the demand for resale contracts unchanged.

So we agree, the increase in demand is the driving force

 

[Minniesgal]

Demand or no demand I still think there are a good few sellers who have over-cooked the asking prices. There are several BLT contracts available where the price is so high it offers tiny or no savings over direct. That is surely going to put most buyers off for now and impact demand

 

[DougEMG]

Demand or no demand I still think there are a good few sellers who have over-cooked the asking prices. There are several BLT contracts available where the price is so high it offers tiny or no savings over direct. That is surely going to put most buyers off for now and impact demand

Agreed. With the resale restrictions and the amount of time and effort required to go the resale route, resale buyers are expecting a discount to direct pricing. With only a tiny savings over direct it would not make sense to go resale. So how much demand though is there at say a 20% discount, a 30% discount, etc. For myself I never looked at it by how much the discount was, but rather what the total cost I could afford was, so there was a ceiling on how much I could afford to pay; hence why I never bought direct when I first learned about DVC and only bought resale years later after finding out about the resale market.