JimMIA
There's more to life than mice...
- Joined
- Feb 16, 2005
- Messages
- 21,168
The concern over hurricanes after last year is certainly understandable, but I thought it might be helpful to bring just a touch of reality to the picture. As a native Floridian (my family has lived here since shortly before Florida became part of the US) and a resident of Miami, I am quite aware of what hurricanes are.
But, believe it or not, we don't have one every year. In fact, we don't even average one every other year. We only average one major hurricane (Category 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) once every five years.
Since 1900 - the last 105 years - SE and SW Florida (where hurricanes would strike if they were going to hit the Orlando area) have been hit by a grand total of 49 hurricanes, only 22 of which were Category 3 or stronger. That is a little less than 1 every two years, with one serious storm every five years.
For more recent perspective, consider the last 20 years. From 1985-2004, Florida has been hit by a total of 11 hurricanes (again about 1 every other year). One year (1985), we got hit by two hurricanes. Twelve years (88,89,90,91,93,96,97,98,00,01,02, and 03) we got hit by none. And then, there was that one crazy year - 2004 - when we got hit by 4!
Those figures above are for the whole state. Most of those hurricanes hit the Keys at the extreme southern end of Florida, or the Panhandle in the extreme NW part of the state - both hundreds of miles from WDW. If anything, most of those storms probably improved the weather at WDW!
In the last 20 years, only three hurricanes have hit the Orlando area -- all of them last year!
It's virtually impossible to predict what will happen this year. We hear that forecasters are expecting an "active" hurricane season with 17 named systems. Understand that only half of those are likely to reach hurricane strength, with 2-3 being major storms. (Last year, we had 16 systems, only 9 of which reached hurricane force, and one of those was reclassified as a hurricane only after post-storm analysis) A good number of systems will come off the west coast of Africa, reach tropical storm intensity, get named, and then make a right turn halfway across the Atlantic and disappear into oblivion.
If you want accurate information about hurricanes, turn the TV off. Go to www.nhc.noaa.gov That's the National Hurricane Center website. They have a world of accurate infomation and tools for you, and they are not trying to sell you deodorant or improve your sex life.
Then, plan your vacation and have a great time!
But, believe it or not, we don't have one every year. In fact, we don't even average one every other year. We only average one major hurricane (Category 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) once every five years.
Since 1900 - the last 105 years - SE and SW Florida (where hurricanes would strike if they were going to hit the Orlando area) have been hit by a grand total of 49 hurricanes, only 22 of which were Category 3 or stronger. That is a little less than 1 every two years, with one serious storm every five years.
For more recent perspective, consider the last 20 years. From 1985-2004, Florida has been hit by a total of 11 hurricanes (again about 1 every other year). One year (1985), we got hit by two hurricanes. Twelve years (88,89,90,91,93,96,97,98,00,01,02, and 03) we got hit by none. And then, there was that one crazy year - 2004 - when we got hit by 4!
Those figures above are for the whole state. Most of those hurricanes hit the Keys at the extreme southern end of Florida, or the Panhandle in the extreme NW part of the state - both hundreds of miles from WDW. If anything, most of those storms probably improved the weather at WDW!
In the last 20 years, only three hurricanes have hit the Orlando area -- all of them last year!
It's virtually impossible to predict what will happen this year. We hear that forecasters are expecting an "active" hurricane season with 17 named systems. Understand that only half of those are likely to reach hurricane strength, with 2-3 being major storms. (Last year, we had 16 systems, only 9 of which reached hurricane force, and one of those was reclassified as a hurricane only after post-storm analysis) A good number of systems will come off the west coast of Africa, reach tropical storm intensity, get named, and then make a right turn halfway across the Atlantic and disappear into oblivion.
If you want accurate information about hurricanes, turn the TV off. Go to www.nhc.noaa.gov That's the National Hurricane Center website. They have a world of accurate infomation and tools for you, and they are not trying to sell you deodorant or improve your sex life.
Then, plan your vacation and have a great time!
I agree the news tends to blow things out of proportion. The TV is trying to sell Viagra. 
Whatever it takes.
On the Today Show, Matt Lauer interviewed a marine biologist who confirmed some were coming as close as 30 feet from shore. I don't think a migration like this can be dismissed as no big deal. It does alter vacation plans when you're not allowed in the water. We were vacationing in Vero in 8/00 when news on the local TV reported a 13 year old boy who was attacked by one of these 4-6 foot spinner/black tip sharks. It required foot surgery though the boy survived just fine. Just use discretion and caution. Just my 2 cents 
