Hurricane Watchers--Post Here!

[goodfood4ursoul]

Ok just watched the latest model runs on TWC look like the US model has changed bringing the storm close to the West Coast of FL. Which will mean some rain in Orlando but not the full hurricane! Good news cause yesterday that model had the storm riding right over the entire state! The European model still bring it way out into the gulf completely away from FL which is what it has been consistently predicting! Still a long way to go in this but I was happy to see the change in the US model!

Dwheels, you sound like you enjoy the weather
You would love this weather site run by a fella who is a private,
for profit meteorologist for business people around the globe
(you know, for people involved in commodity trading, folks who absolutely need to know
what is going to happen so they can cut their losses or stay the course).

If he wasn't accurate, they would not be paying him for his service, so he takes great care to get it right.

He provides the best, most accurate weather forecasts I have ever seen.

Anyway, you can find him at www.wxrisk.com
or if you go on facebook just search for Wxrisk and you should be able to find him.

He's continually watching all the models, the euro, the 0z and 6z GFS, the Canadian model,
he knows which ones are most accurate, and he explains it all on his site
and with so much more analysis it's too much for my non-weather geek mind to possibly take in

If you go to www.wxrisk.com right now you can bathe in the weather-ese to your heart's content...
enjoy

PS- look for his summary in red font closer to the bottom of the page. You can't copy and paste it or I would have included it already...

 

[Kate and Family]

.....If he wasn't accurate, they would not be paying him for his service, so he takes great care to get it right. ....
....He's continually watching all the models, the euro, the 0z and 6z GFS, the Canadian model, he knows which ones are most accurate, and he explains it all on his site and with so much more analysis it's too much for my non-weather geek mind to possibly take in ....

.... PS- look for his summary in red font closer to the bottom of the page. You can't copy and paste it or I would have included it already...

I am sure he is great for long range planning - but I cannot see where he has updated his report since the 19th. Still calling the storm 94L. Or maybe I am missing something.

 

[BadgerGirl84]

Watching these storms has turned into kind of a fascination for me... I started out just trying to get a feel for what to expect, as we are scheduled to arrive Monday. Now, however, I've grown really interested in this whole process of predicting these storms... Is 50 too old to consider a career change?

Anyway, in my hours of Googling, I've found some interesting stuff that I thought I'd share:

For those concerned about the next storm (10) check these out:
ENSEMBLE MODEL
COMPUTER MODELS

As you can see the hugely predominant thinking is that this one turns away - YAY!!

Also, this site is great for keeping you posted with really in-depth analysis:
HURRICANE TRACK

Hopefully you guys enjoy these as much as I am... I am SO getting my grandkids together so we can play weatherman. (They have to be my appreciative audience.)

Thanks for sharing those links on TD 10. That is the one I was thinking could potentially have an impact on the start of my trip (fly in 9/1). Good to know that so far, this one will not be an issue for any part of the USA.

Even though I will not be impacted by Isaac...I am still checking the updates almost every hour!

 

[MandM-Mom]

One good thing about this hurricane obsessing, is it's diverted my attention from checking on last minute ADRs a million and one times a day.

Although this makes me wonder if some ADRs are now available because some people are changing plans...still have not got that Ohana I have been trying for..gonna have to keep checking now!

 

[kidsrfun]

Watching these storms has turned into kind of a fascination for me... I started out just trying to get a feel for what to expect, as we are scheduled to arrive Monday. Now, however, I've grown really interested in this whole process of predicting these storms... Is 50 too old to consider a career change?

Anyway, in my hours of Googling, I've found some interesting stuff that I thought I'd share:

For those concerned about the next storm (10) check these out:
ENSEMBLE MODEL
COMPUTER MODELS

As you can see the hugely predominant thinking is that this one turns away - YAY!!

Also, this site is great for keeping you posted with really in-depth analysis:
HURRICANE TRACK

Hopefully you guys enjoy these as much as I am... I am SO getting my grandkids together so we can play weatherman. (They have to be my appreciative audience.)

Thank you for the links. I am really hoping these projections are correct and TD10 is not going to hit anywhere in the gulf!! It would be PERFECT to have 5 days in disney solo and then 4 days with my hubby who I haven't seen in quite some time!!

 

[goodfood4ursoul]

I am sure he is great for long range planning - but I cannot see where he has updated his report since the 19th. Still calling the storm 94L. Or maybe I am missing something.

What he was updating 3 days ago regarding the path and strength is just now being discussed by the main stream media,
who seem to want to wring every drop of drama out of this event that they possibly can

He updates when there are changes to report.
I did not post that info because it was "breaking news"
but because it discussed in depth the different models and
he calmly gives in depth reasoning for his reports and tries to educate people about weather forecasting sans drama.

DIS posters seem hungry for information, and he gives a ton of it.

I expect another update soon
look for it

 

[Dwheels]

Dwheels, you sound like you enjoy the weather
You would love this weather site run by a fella who is a private,
for profit meteorologist for business people around the globe
(you know, for people involved in commodity trading, folks who absolutely need to know
what is going to happen so they can cut their losses or stay the course).

If he wasn't accurate, they would not be paying him for his service, so he takes great care to get it right.

He provides the best, most accurate weather forecasts I have ever seen.

Anyway, you can find him at www.wxrisk.com
or if you go on facebook just search for Wxrisk and you should be able to find him.

He's continually watching all the models, the euro, the 0z and 6z GFS, the Canadian model,
he knows which ones are most accurate, and he explains it all on his site
and with so much more analysis it's too much for my non-weather geek mind to possibly take in

If you go to www.wxrisk.com right now you can bathe in the weather-ese to your heart's content...
enjoy

PS- look for his summary in red font closer to the bottom of the page. You can't copy and paste it or I would have included it already...

Thanks I will have to check it out! I love weather and are always looking at all the models! I do see a lot of weather models calling for an east coast track however TWC is only forecasting the west coast track. Def gonna keep an eye on this we land Friday evening at MCO for a 8 night stay. Assuming that we will get washed out at 1 possibly 2 days. We were in Disney in August of 2005 before we left they were calling for Katrina to affect our trip. I was so freaked out because as you know it was a Major Hurricane. Obviously that didnt happen so hopefully they will be wrong again!

 

[Talking Hands]

Definitely watching Hurricane Issac tracking since I live in SE Fla. Looks like we will have something by early Monday morning. People are already out buying hurricane supplies. Figures we would be getting a storm. We just got our roof replaced and they finished today. Hubby if freaking a bit.

 

[mylildarlings]

One good thing about this hurricane obsessing, is it's diverted my attention from checking on last minute ADRs a million and one times a day.

Lol! That's me too. I haven't checked new ADRs all day.

 

[Blessed_wth_Triplets]

Ugh...anyone checkout weather.com lately? It says it is highly likely to impact the US and show it going directly over Florida Monday!!! Of course...our first day at MK

 

[BadgerGirl84]

Ugh...anyone checkout weather.com lately? It says it is highly likely to impact the US and show it going directly over Florida Monday!!! Of course...our first day at MK

Check out this link: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201209_ensmodel.html

There are still some tracks that show it going into the Gulf and avoiding Florida. I hope you are still able to enjoy MK!

 

[LPnerd]

Check out this link: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201209_ensmodel.html

There are still some tracks that show it going into the Gulf and avoiding Florida. I hope you are still able to enjoy MK!

http://http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201209_ensmodel.html

I'm still trying to post the best stuff, but this site is not allowing me to do it... when you look at the models, look at the ensemble models, NOT the computer models,,, those are what NOAA puts out from what the see on the ensemble... fl residents havae said for years that noaa are forced to give the best picture possible because of touriusm.. and those that have been through a big, tough storm, don't think the media over hpes at all believe me.

 

[BadgerGirl84]

http://http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201209_ensmodel.html

Couldn't get this link to work.

 

[Blessed_wth_Triplets]

Check out this link: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201209_ensmodel.html

There are still some tracks that show it going into the Gulf and avoiding Florida. I hope you are still able to enjoy MK!

I don't know...maybe I'm reading them wrong but that looks like a bunch of purple dotted lines all over Florida too?!? With us leaving in only four days I'm hoping it turns quickly...I'm giving myself anxiety and need to stay off the computer for a good day or so!

 

[North of Mouse]

Ok just watched the latest model runs on TWC look like the US model has changed bringing the storm close to the West Coast of FL. Which will mean some rain in Orlando but not the full hurricane! Good news cause yesterday that model had the storm riding right over the entire state! The European model still bring it way out into the gulf completely away from FL which is what it has been consistently predicting! Still a long way to go in this but I was happy to see the change in the US model!

You do realize that the worst part of a hurricane is on the east side? If it skims up FL's west coast as a hurricane (75mph + winds) it will be worse - so don't be too happy about the change yet

 

[pigletto]

You do realize that the worst part of a hurricane is on the east side? If it skims up FL's west coast as a hurricane (75mph + winds) it will be worse - so don't be too happy about the change yet

Exactly. Don't get excited about the dirty side of the storm.

I know no more now than I did when I started watching this thing a few days ago so I am done watching. Now it's time to enjoy my trip, and check on Friday or Saturday. Big changes are in store for this storm in the next 48 hours and any one of those things could bring an entirely different outcome. There is relatively little to know at this point.

 

[mattsdragon]

Is it me, or do all Southerners, especially those from hurricane prone areas, shake their head a bit at the Yankees and Midwesterners fretting the weather?

Instead of watching the weather channel and being afraid of a raindrop, read up on the history of hurricanes and their actual effect on central Florida.

 

[Blessed_wth_Triplets]

I sure hope you are all right. The big picture at www.weather.com doesnt look pretty! Nor do the 23 mph winds and rain forecasted for Mon. And Tues.

 

[CampbellScot]

Is it me, or do all Southerners, especially those from hurricane prone areas, shake their head a bit at the Yankees and Midwesterners fretting the weather?

as a Southerner living smack in the middle of Yankee territory, I see both sides of the coin. My Yankee husband works incredibly long hours all year long. We get a real vacation once a year. We pay a lot for it and it's distressing to think that a good portion of the vacation could be spent in driving rain. That isn't relaxing. If we could go another time of the year we would, but we can't. So we'll make the best of it. We have our rain gear packed and we will have fun, hurricane or not.

The Southerner in me knows that weather is weather and it happens you just get on with it.

Like I've said before, some of the best days we've had at Disney have been during a hurricane. So I'm not too worried about it. As long as the entire ten days isn't a wash out, I can handle the days that are wet. I just need some sun in there to keep me going!

 

[Dwheels]

I sure hope you are all right. The big picture at www.weather.com doesnt look pretty! Nor do the 23 mph winds and rain forecasted for Mon. And Tues.

Weather.com is all hype! Don't believe the hype!