Hurricane Joaquin

[JimMIA]

This morning Tropical Storm Joaquin intensified to hurricane strength, so it is now Hurricane Joaquin. Joaquin is a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75 MPH.

The storm is currently located about 400 miles ENE of the Central Bahamas, moving slowly WSW at 5 knots. The storm is expected to continue on that course through Thursday and Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Central Bahamas, with Hurricane Watches in effect for the NW Bahamas including Bimini, which is only about 40 miles offshore of Miami.

However, on Friday, Hurricane Joaquin is expected to make a dramatic turn to the north as it approaches the Central Bahamas. The system is then expected to move northward (or even NNE) well offshore and intensify to a Category 2 hurricane on Friday and Saturday. It is possible Joaquin could reach Category 3 strength (110 MPH) on Saturday, but it is expected to weaken after Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, the path of the storm is uncertain, but current forecast tracks show Joaquin moving more northwestward toward the Atlantic coast. IF (and it's a big if at this point) Joaquin makes landfall, that is expected to occur somewhere in the North Carolina - mid-Atlantic states on Sunday or Monday.

It's hard to say what effect Joaquin will have on the WDW area, but I would keep an eye on this system.

 

[jerseygal]

Heard on the news this morning that Washington DC, VA, and PA might have impact. HOPE the best for all!
Sure bet though, east coast will be seeing A LOT of rain. I know that we need the rain, but we have been spoiled by the beautiful sunny September.

 

[bobbiwoz]

They are talking about it hitting NJ on Monday.

 

[a742246]

Anywhere from North Carolina to Cape Cod should be keeping an eye on this!

 

[NedsTJ]

We're driving from PA leaving Tuesday morning (3am, Lehigh Valley) and are planning on doing I95 straight down. Might have to alter that to Harrisburg and 81 south. But it looks like it might be north of us by then, so we'll see.

 

[lovin'fl]

So, dilemma. We have condo in NC where DS is staying while going to college and DH stays during the week for work. We have a house in MD where me and twin DDs are all the time (while DDs are finishing HS). DDs are supposed to play softball in NJ this weekend. I just cancelled hotel for NJ. DH and DS are in NC and I am in MD with DDs. DH was going to drive to MD on Thur and then the 4 of us (all but DS) were going up to NJ from Fri-Sun for softball. I just told DH he should probably stay in NC with DS. Guess we'll have to keep watching Joaquin. Stay safe everyone!

 

[ErinsMommy]

 

[JimMIA]

Wednesday, 8 PM Advisory Update

Joaquin is now a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105 MPH, and is rapidly approaching Category 3 intensity in an environment which is very conducive to strengthening. The storm is expected to reach Category 3 on Friday, but don't be surprised if it's there tomorrow morning.

There are two significant changes in the forecast for Joaquin, and taken together, they warrant paying close attention to this storm.

The first is that the storm is now projected to actually strike the Central Bahamas with more than 100 MPH winds, rather than veering off to the north beforehand. The abrupt turn to the north is expected Thursday night/Friday -- too late to spare the Bahamas. Hurricane Warnings have now been extended to include most of the NW Bahamas.

The effect of that change, however is what we need to be concerned about on the Atlantic coast of the US. The fact that the storm is now expected to move further west than earlier forecast also means that it will likely strike the Carolina coast as a strong Category 2 hurricane on Sunday. The National Hurricane Center forecast track shows landfall on the NC Outer Banks, but there are highly regarded computer models that show landfall as far south as the central SC coast.

Joaquin is expected to reach Category 3 intensity Friday and then weaken slightly before landfall, but it is certainly possible that it could make landfall as a Category 3 storm -- which is a major hurricane likely to cause widespread damage.

So, if you're on your way south to WDW, or to HHI, start following this strong storm.

 

[Judique]

Yikes, Jim. Thanks for the updates as usual.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

Please pray for us in eastern NC. We're past due and this isn't looking good.

 

[JimMIA]

Just a quick update, with more later.

Hurricane Joaquin is now a VERY dangerous Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 MPH and gusts to 150 MPH. It is expected to reach Category 4 (140 MPH+ sustained winds) later today or tonight, still over the Bahamas. The central Bahamas are really going to be pounded for the next 36-48 hours.

The computer model guidance, which was quite tight, has now changed considerably with reliable models differing greatly beyond 72 hours out. Therefore, we expect the storm to turn north today and tomorrow, but where it goes from the Bahamas is hard to say at this point.

Hurricane hunter aircraft will be out again this morning, so we may have more information with the 11 AM advisories.

 

[lovin'fl]

Jim- do you work in the field (meteorologist?)? My DD-16 is very interested in it. Any suggestion on colleges in NC or SC? She's looking at FIT in FL but expensive. Sorry to hijack!

 

[JimMIA]

Jim- do you work in the field (meteorologist?)? My DD-16 is very interested in it. Any suggestion on colleges in NC or SC? She's looking at FIT in FL but expensive. Sorry to hijack!

No, I'm not even an amateur meteorologist -- just 40 years of living in Miami and watching storms!

I'm not familiar with FIT. It looks like a private, for-profit college which would explain the high cost. You'd probably do better with a state university -- lots of good ones in NC and FL, don't know about SC.

 

[CraigInPA]

Jim- do you work in the field (meteorologist?)? My DD-16 is very interested in it. Any suggestion on colleges in NC or SC? She's looking at FIT in FL but expensive. Sorry to hijack!

Pennsylvania State University seems to be the 1000 pound Gorilla in meteorology, with Accuweather and many other forecasting companies being founded by graduates from their program.

 

[a742246]

Lyndon State College in Vermont offers a good meteorology program also (Jim Cantore went there).

 

[Harlemgirl720]

Some friends and I always say when Jim Cantore is in town its pretty serious. We all crush on him too.

 

[JimMIA]

Well, Joaquin made the expected turn, and is now headed in the right direction -- North!

At 5 PM Friday, Joaquin was located over the east-central Bahamas near San Salvador, and was headed north at 6 knots. The storm weakened slightly, but is still a strong Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 MPH and gusts to 155 MPH. So the good news is that the storm is moving away from the Bahamas and also from the U.S.; the bad news is there is a large container ship missing in the vicinity of the storm's eye with at least 28 people aboard.

I won't bore you with the details, but the bottom line is that Joaquin is projected to gradually turn to the Northeast and move further away from the U.S. as it moves northward. The intensity could fluctuate a good bit over the weekend, but early next week Joaquin should weaken to a Category 1 hurricane as it moves NE out over the open North Atlantic.

The storm is not expected to have much effect on the U.S., so this will be my last post unless something changes dramatically.

 

[Jim Disney]

This morning Tropical Storm Joaquin intensified to hurricane strength, so it is now Hurricane Joaquin. Joaquin is a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75 MPH.

The storm is currently located about 400 miles ENE of the Central Bahamas, moving slowly WSW at 5 knots. The storm is expected to continue on that course through Thursday and Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Central Bahamas, with Hurricane Watches in effect for the NW Bahamas including Bimini, which is only about 40 miles offshore of Miami.

However, on Friday, Hurricane Joaquin is expected to make a dramatic turn to the north as it approaches the Central Bahamas. The system is then expected to move northward (or even NNE) well offshore and intensify to a Category 2 hurricane on Friday and Saturday. It is possible Joaquin could reach Category 3 strength (110 MPH) on Saturday, but it is expected to weaken after Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, the path of the storm is uncertain, but current forecast tracks show Joaquin moving more northwestward toward the Atlantic coast. IF (and it's a big if at this point) Joaquin makes landfall, that is expected to occur somewhere in the North Carolina - mid-Atlantic states on Sunday or Monday.

It's hard to say what effect Joaquin will have on the WDW area, but I would keep an eye on this system.

Please may anyone staying at Hilton Head Post Pics of the flooding ?!?!?

 

[JimMIA]

Please may anyone staying at Hilton Head Post Pics of the flooding ?!?!?

This post unfortunately won't get much comment on this thread -- but it's worth a thread of its own.

Any owners at HHI, and certainly anyone planning to visit in the next couple of months would certainly want to know about any effect of the "1,000-year rainfall" on the resort.

You'd be doing a service to the those folks if you started a NEW thread asking that very question.