Hurricane info and DVC/WDW

[codina818]

Just thought I would start a thread about this. I'm not sure this is the right place, but pls move to where it should go.

First - Member services phone service is shut down. I don't expect that it will open until Sat. Expect long wait times when they re-open!!

Hurricane Matthew is still churning Northwest.

From NOAA - 4 pm update.

LOCATION...26.0N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM SE OF FREEPORT BAHAMAS
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

 

[codina818]

The parks are all closing today at 5p.m and will be closed all day on Oct 7

 

[codina818]

Nicole has been upgraded to a hurricane.

Matthew is projected to go up the florida coast into Georgia/S. Carolina, then fishhook back into the atlantic and possibly meander south.

There is a possibility that Matthew and Nicole could interact, something known as the Fujiwara effect (see wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect)

In that case, all predictions become sheer speculation.. nobody knows what will happen if they get close to one another.

 

[codina818]

Almost 100% probability and winds in Orlando area will be greater than 40 MPH, and about 70% chance that winds will be above 50 mph.

Keep your heads down, seek shelter and keep your flashlights and rechargeable batteries fully charged up, if you are in Orlando.

Will be much worse on coast, almost 100% probability of hurricane force winds.

 

[codina818]

This will have at least some effect on Vero Beach... a prolonged storm surge is expected as this is a slow moving storm.

In 2004, VB resort was closed for most of Sept. and the MF skyrocketed cause of the damage done there. Hurricane Francis had sustained winds of 56 mph and gusts of 82 mph over a weekend.

Matthew is expected to be similar but the path should be different.

 

[codina818]

6 pm update from NOAA

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 78.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

 

[codina818]

Local Update. They have announced a curfew from tonight until 7 am Saturday morning. I am not sure how strict it is.

 

[lovin'fl]

anything on DVC Hilton Head Island Resort?

 

[codina818]

I am currently in Orlando, about 5 min away from Disney Springs, so I will try to give my updates as they arise.

Currently, things are eerily quiet. No wind, no rain... the calm before the storm, so to speak.

 

[codina818]

anything on DVC HHI?

There won't be much on HHI for awhile, I think. The storm may veer away enough so that it may not have any effect, or it could barrel right up there.

Matthew is a slow moving storm, and currently it is behaving like a drunk person walking down the street. You can predict the general direction to some degree, but you have no idea exactly where they are going to step next.

 

[lovin'fl]

thank you. stay safe!

 

[codina818]

From NOAA

..MATTHEW STILL PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER GRAND BAHAMA...
...10 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

An automated station at West End on Grand Bahama Island recently
reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) and a pressure of
943.1 mb (27.85 inches).

Vero Beach, Florida, recently reported a
wind gust of 50 mph (80 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 79.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

 

[codina818]

It is 65 miles away from West Palm and heading towards the coast. Looks to be about 10 hours away from Cape Canaveral at its current speed and if it continues its current path.

Should have some serious effects in Orlando, if it maintains its current pace, in about 4-5 hours, peaking in about 10 hours.

I will be going to sleep soon, but I will give a final update for tonight, then go to bed. If the storm wakes me up, I will post more updates.

 

[codina818]

From NOAA

...MATTHEW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

During the past hour, a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) was reported
at Stuart, Florida, and a

gust of 54 mph (87 km/h) has occurred at
Vero Beach, Florida.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 79.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ESE OF FT. PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

 

[codina818]

kinda good news.. seems to be paralleling florida coast. But will do damage from 60 miles out from center.

As long at it stays that far away, WDW should not have severe damage..

It is sprinkling where I am, about 5 min away from Disney Springs, but not much wind.

Im going to bed now.. I hope to wake up to the sound of very little wind..

 

[codina818]

looks less likely to hit HHI directly.. looks like it will fishhook away east as it goes northerly

 

[codina818]

it is "kissing" cape canaveral, so to speak. Where I am, near Disney Springs, there is some rain and wind, but certainly more akin to a regular thunderstorm.

Looks like Matthew will not do much more damage here than a routine thunderstrom would.

 

[codina818]

From NOAA

...7 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WESTERN EDGE OF MATTHEW'S EYEWALL CONTINUES TO BRUSH CAPE
CANAVERAL...

During the past hour, a wind gust of 107 mph (170 km/h) occurred on
the tip of Cape Canaveral.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 80.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

 

[CarolMN]

Thank you for the NOAA updates.

 

[ttepsich]

Thanks for the updates codina818. We were to arrive today but our flight was canceled. We rescheduled our flight for Sunday morning. Keeping our fingers crossed. Hopefully you will be able to continue to keep us informed. We appreciate any updates you may have. Stay safe!!
Tina